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Tyler Penland

2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread

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Nice little dusting overnight. Had a low of 12.8 with a wind gust of 44. That put the windchill at about -11.

I hate that this weekends storm has kinda petered out. We've taken a month off now so it's time to really get back to winter. I had hopes that it was going be a banner year for snow and it still might be but it's time to get going. Besides the early Dec. storm and a few of light flows, it's really been a so-so season thus far.

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7 minutes ago, SnoJoe said:

Nice little dusting overnight. Had a low of 12.8 with a wind gust of 44. That put the windchill at about -11.

I hate that this weekends storm has kinda petered out. We've taken a month off now so it's time to really get back to winter. I had hopes that it was going be a banner year for snow and it still might be but it's time to get going. Besides the early Dec. storm and a few of light flows, it's really been a so-so season thus far.

The Euro gives you 3-6 inches of snow on the front end so it hasn't completely petered out yet. 

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2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Significant ice event setting up just east of the mountains. Good luck with everyone keeping the lights on. Much rather have 6 inches of snow than .50 inch of ice. 

Yeah, this is not what I want to see at all. 

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26 minutes ago, BretWheatley said:

Yeah, no thanks!

zr_acc.us_se.png

I wouldn’t worry too much about this for the mountain zones.  The wedge is not going to hold on too long - parent high is too far north and west of its ideal CAD position.  Warm nose should work it’s magic.  Suspect mountains see mostly rain event and GFS is really hinting at this.  Far northern mountains and northern foothills locations will be closer to the cold and more susceptible to wintry precipitation.  But for Asheville, Franklin, and escarpment areas, I don’t see this ice accumulation map coming to fruition. At least for now.

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27 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

I wouldn’t worry too much about this for the mountain zones.  The wedge is not going to hold on too long - parent high is too far north and west of its ideal CAD position.  Warm nose should work it’s magic.  Suspect mountains see mostly rain event and GFS is really hinting at this.  Far northern mountains and northern foothills locations will be closer to the cold and more susceptible to wintry precipitation.  But for Asheville, Franklin, and escarpment areas, I don’t see this ice accumulation map coming to fruition. At least for now.

I agree. At least at my location, I rarely see freezing rain or even much sleet for that matter. The times I do it's on the very frontend or backend of a system. Snow to rain or rain to snow is usually how it goes. We did have a storm in 1999(?) that had 4 inches of sleet then a foot of snow on top. It got really cold afterwards, the sleet locked up and we dealt with unplowable roads for days. Can't remember what year it was but we also had a bad ice storm. It was mostly confined to the valleys though. There have been others but still few and far between. Suits me.

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Well, Sunday is at least going to be a slop of a day. Gonna be nice to sit at ale house and watch football all day at least lol. I think us northern counties are in for a show, unless the QPF is hard to come by, which has been hinted several times 

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It will be interesting to see how this event unfolds for us mountain folks. These CAD events are always fascinating in Haywood County. I live in Maggie Valley right at 3,000 ft. elevation and we rarely see freezing rain, can't even remember the last time. I work in Canton 12 miles away and it's an entirely different story. I remember an event we had a couple of years ago where I left Canton with freezing rain and a temperature of 25 and when I got home it was 43 degrees and plain old rain.

The way it looks right now, maybe a dusting of snow on the front in before the WAA moves in, a cold, rainy Saturday night and Sunday and hopefully some snow on backside Sunday night into Monday. Curious to see if any ZR develops in Eastern Haywood County tomorrow.  Hope everyone hold on to their electricity and tree damage is minimal.

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50 minutes ago, Hvward said:

RGEM keeps inching surface and 925mb temps down each run as heavier precip moves in tomorrow night. It’s a tad cooler at the surface compared to the 3km NAM, but they both show surface temps in the upper 20’s with ZR falling Saturday into Sunday. Most recent RGEM map shows 1” of ZR at KAVL. That’s probably overdone, but even half that would cause major problems! I hate these ice storms, they are so difficult to forecast and people are going to be unprepared if it comes to fruition.

 

Yikes! Yeah, even half of that would be.... insane. 

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13 minutes ago, BretWheatley said:

Newest 3 & 12k NAM a little concerning. Doesn’t show a changeover for most.. from freezing rain. 

Still gotta think it is overdone. Has not yet nailed a ZR event here this season even though it has forecast many. 

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22 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

Still gotta think it is overdone. Has not yet nailed a ZR event here this season even though it has forecast many. 

The NAM actually has a dry bias now since the “upgrade”. RGEM and CMC are showing heavier amounts and now GFS and Euro appear to be playing catch-up. If temps hold, its lights out in WNC, northern upstate of SC, and Ne GA. 

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The NAM actually has a dry bias now since the “upgrade”. RGEM and CMC are showing heavier amounts and now GFS and Euro appear to be playing catch-up. If temps hold, its lights out in WNC, northern upstate of SC, and Ne GA. 

0z gfs/fv3 are a half inch or less of qpf for most of this thread through 18z Sunday. The 3km NAM is exceptionally dry outside the favored upslope areas where it is well known to overdo amounts (it was 1"+ too high along the escarpment in the northern mountains during the last event).

 

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2 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

0z gfs/fv3 are a half inch or less of qpf for most of this thread through 18z Sunday. The 3km NAM is exceptionally dry outside the favored upslope areas where it is well known to overdo amounts (it was 1"+ too high along the escarpment in the northern mountains during the last event).

 

The 0Z GFS run increases QPF by quite a bit area wide, its playing catch-up per usual. Have not seen FV3 yet. 

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44 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

The NAM actually has a dry bias now since the “upgrade”. RGEM and CMC are showing heavier amounts and now GFS and Euro appear to be playing catch-up. If temps hold, its lights out in WNC, northern upstate of SC, and Ne GA. 

Temps wise, we’ve had a lot of wedge events this season since November. Each time the NAM and RGEM have been the cold outliers that didn’t verify. GFS has actually done well even though it’s QPF has been low all season too. So, I would take NAM QPF with GFS thermal profiles. This event turns into a Winter Wx Advisory for many in the mountains as it would be brief snow/sleet/ZR before changing to a cold rain. Gotta get further north into the deeper cold air like around DC to get good snows. 

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1 minute ago, HurricaneTracker said:

Temps wise, we’ve had a lot of wedge events this season since November. Each time the NAM and RGEM have been the cold outliers that didn’t verify. GFS has actually done well even though it’s QPF has been low all season too. So, I would take NAM QPF with GFS thermal profiles. This event turns into a Winter Wx Advisory for many in the mountains as it would be brief snow/sleet/ZR before changing to a cold rain. Gotta get further north into the deeper cold air like around DC to get good snows. 

Oh yeah snow is out of the question IMO besides at the onset. This is shaping up to be a bad ice storm and the public knows nothing about it. For whatever reason, TV Mets don’t honk the horn as loud for ice when in reality this is worse than 10 inches of snow as far as impacts go. 

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7 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Oh yeah snow is out of the question IMO besides at the onset. This is shaping up to be a bad ice storm and the public knows nothing about it. For whatever reason, TV Mets don’t honk the horn as loud for ice when in reality this is worse than 10 inches of snow as far as impacts go. 

Nws has me an you with two inches of snow and up to .40 in ice that's a big deal in my book.....

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6 hours ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Oh yeah snow is out of the question IMO besides at the onset. This is shaping up to be a bad ice storm and the public knows nothing about it. For whatever reason, TV Mets don’t honk the horn as loud for ice when in reality this is worse than 10 inches of snow as far as impacts go. 

Yeah I respect Boyer he jumps on the oh it's about a non event here in the mountains bandwagon too soon sometimes that's when I know I'm in trouble smdh maybe SW mountains it's a non event but hes way better than ole Bob Caldwell I chuckeled saying his name. Now that man just gave up in his later years he flat out was delusional at times lmao 

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In Eastern ashe back home for the beginning of this one, light dusting on the grass, hopefully it will deter customers from work, dont really like the store I'm at today. Will be back in Boone around 6, let's see what she brings.

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33 F in IMBY; airport reporting dew point of 18 F.

Drove from Raleigh to Asheville yesterday; brine on the road for pretty much the entire 250 miles.

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