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2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread


Tyler Penland
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39 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Here is the MOB morning disco. Gas meets fire for you guys upstream!


.NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday night/...A strong upper level
shortwave will move eastward out of the southwest states today.
An associated area of low pressure will move eastward along the
coast this afternoon and evening with a warm front stretched
eastward from the low along the coast. Ahead of the low, a strong
low level jet of 50 to 60 knots is expected to develop and this
will help bring an increase surge of Gulf moisture into the
region by this afternoon. Precipitable water values are forecast
to climb to near 1.9 inches just in advance of the low. The
combination of the deep layer moisture and strong forcing
downstream of the upper shortwave and sfc low will lead to
development of heavy rain across the area primarily during the
afternoon and evening hours. Most areas can expect a general 2 to
4 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts before the rain
exists the area late tonight.

The severe weather potential continues to look very marginal and
confined to areas along the immediate coast where weak instability
may reach inland as the warm front moves north just ahead of the
approaching low pressure system. We cannot completely rule out an
isolated tornado or damaging wind gust due to the strong low level
shear. However, the best potential for rotating storms will remain
over the coastal waters. The primary threat will continue to be the
potential for flash flooding in the watch area. In addition, rip
currents and heavy surf can be expected at the beaches. Minor
coastal flooding will also be possible late this afternoon into
tonight.

There will be a very sharp temperature gradient along the warm front
today with locations north of the warm front staying in the mid/
upper 40s and low 50s. Locations south of the warm front could reach
into the upper 60s to near 70. Breezy conditions will also develop
today, especially in areas south of the warm front along the coast
where the higher momentum air aloft mix down to the surface. A
wind advisory may be required later today. /13

Always nice to confirm upstream obs. Fire hose is primed!

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Heads up!  High pressure centered in Illinois is 1039.2mb!  This is the strongest it has been and bests all model expectations from the last several runs.  Something to watch as the day unfolds.

Edit - note the temperatures BELOW ZERO in Wisconsin.  Teens in central Illinois.  GFS was too warm by 10-15 degrees in this area of Wisconsin, but NAM not too far off.  NAM and GFS about 1 mb too low on the strength of the high though.

 

24CBD629-D757-4065-94B6-111190801BA2.gif

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Heads up!  High pressure centered in Illinois is 1039.2mb!  This is the strongest it has been and bests all model expectations from the last several runs.  Something to watch as the day unfolds.
Edit - note the temperatures BELOW ZERO in Wisconsin.  Teens in central Illinois.  GFS was too warm by 10-15 degrees in this area of Wisconsin, but NAM not too far off.  NAM and GFS about 1 mb too low on the strength of the high though.
 
24CBD629-D757-4065-94B6-111190801BA2.gif.f68caa789f9ad63140b2fc85982721c0.gif

Thanks for the real time data!
This is good news!


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36 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

Heads up!  High pressure centered in Illinois is 1039.2mb!  This is the strongest it has been and bests all model expectations from the last several runs.  Something to watch as the day unfolds.

Edit - note the temperatures BELOW ZERO in Wisconsin.  Teens in central Illinois.  GFS was too warm by 10-15 degrees in this area of Wisconsin, but NAM not too far off.  NAM and GFS about 1 mb too low on the strength of the high though.

 

24CBD629-D757-4065-94B6-111190801BA2.gif

Thanks for all your updates HT. I appreciate all your information. Anything that points to no(or at least less) sleet or freezing rain is what I like to hear. I really hope we get a foot, and then hope for bonus snow after that.

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59 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Feel like looking at the weather while in a tree stand is a weird way to use time but ih well. Some encouraging runs for us northern guys. Let's see what happens. Time to really start watching the short range models. Todays the day boys.

Feel free to post all tree stand observations here :santa:

 

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1 minute ago, Rainforrest said:

We got a chance. Lol

I think your area may get a rather remarkable amount of snow unless sleet etc knocks the totals down.  The orographic lift will be intense. Please keep us all updated on what transpires in your vicinity.  Thanks!

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2 minutes ago, MikeGold said:

I think your area may get a rather remarkable amount of snow unless sleet etc knocks the totals down.  The orographic lift will be intense. Please keep us all updated on what transpires in your vicinity.  Thanks!

Will do. We have over performed with every system this year precipitation wise so I don’t see why this system should be any different. We’re right at 130” of rain for the year. 

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Will do. We have over performed with every system this year precipitation wise so I don’t see why this system should be any different. We’re right at 130” of rain for the year. 

 

Wow, 75” a year is classified as rainforest. You are nearly double that(or 55” above rainforest classification).. astonishing.

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