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2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread


Tyler Penland
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I spent years wishing for a forecast like this when I lived in central SC.  This will be on top of the 2-3" still on the ground up here.  

 

Saturday Night
Snow, mainly after 8pm. Low around 25. East southeast wind 7 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
Sunday
Snow. High near 31. East wind 11 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.
Sunday Night
Snow likely, mainly before 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 30. East northeast wind 7 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Monday
A 40 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 35.
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GSP upping totals and WSW timing: 

 
...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON
EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 11 to 18 inches, with even higher amounts
  possible on mountain ridges. Ice accumulations of around a tenth
  of an inch are also expected.

* WHERE...Buncombe, Henderson, and Transylvania Counties, plus
  mountainous portions of Rutherford and Polk Counties.

* WHEN...From noon Saturday to noon Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult or even
  impossible. Road conditions will deteriorate Saturday night,
  with highway travel continuing to be impacted through early next
  week. Visibility may drop to less than a half mile during
  periods of heavy snow. A few power outages will occur.
  Widespread, prolonged power outages are possible.

 

3EB6B369-1194-4567-A6F7-382D04055FD0.png

58AC3543-D5C6-4DEF-8BB2-1BC85A34AD08.png

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2 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:
6 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:
So...not too get too excited...but that 18z NAM has the low MUCH closer to the coast, get any closer and we've got a chance at a longer duration of heavy precip...This might be worth watching on that aspect.

They always come NW a little. Always.

Yea, my gut feeling, and this is 100% only gut based, is that by the midnight runs tonight, we might see some totals that rival what we had a few days ago, unless models do another southerly adjustment, which I don't think is going to happen.

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1 hour ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Blaming that on convection at the gulf, it looked good overall.

Gulf convection always disrupts the transport. I've heard it a hundred times after they say "we dodged the bullet" because of the thunderstorms down south. 

I'm a long way from the escarpment and that cuts totals here too. You can see the sharp cutoff near the TN line which is only 6 miles from me as the crow flies. I'm thinking maybe 4 to 6 for mby, GFS has me at 5. You foothills guys and girls are going to get crushed.

And now for a little color, a link to Rays call map.

http://grads.raysweather.com/modelData/event.png

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Gulf convection always disrupts the transport. I've heard it a hundred times after they say "we dodged the bullet" because of the thunderstorms down south. 
I'm a long way from the escarpment and that cuts totals here too. You can see the sharp cutoff near the TN line which is only 6 miles from me as the crow flies. I'm thinking maybe 4 to 6 for mby, GFS has me at 5. You foothills guys and girls are going to get crushed.
And now for a little color, a link to Rays call map.
http://grads.raysweather.com/modelData/event.png


Joe, I’ll bet you a bottle of Makers you exceed your predictions!


.
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23 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

 


Joe, I’ll bet you a bottle of Makers you exceed your predictions!


.

 

Ha! I'll be sippin' on some sauce later on this evening so I might take you up on it. Plus, I'm sure my post count goes up significantly by then.:drunk:

You might be right though, but believe it not, my area acts weird when the moisture comes from the south. Seems like it takes forever to saturate. I track virga for hours. But yeah, it usually works out in the end. We'll see.

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6 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:
29 minutes ago, NC_WX10 said:
Cantore is headed to boone!

Per his Twitter he's in Asheville. Mostly rumors. I seen Watauga roads posted it on fb though.

Even If he stays in Asheville I may drive down to meet him. Dude is one of the reasons I fell in love with the weather.

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2 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

Yea.  Boone liquid mean is 2.27" with 15.8" of snow

Just making sure, been checking out trends on the plumes, since I don't use them very much. Boone has been pretty consistent all day, within a couple of inches, can't complain with an average of 15 inches through several runs

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