wncsnow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 It's showing some freezing rain sneaking into the French Broad valley at 72 which will likely cut down on totals this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 12z Canadian kuchera snow through 87, max is 2 ft in that orange part...Still snowing though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, wncsnow said: It's showing some freezing rain sneaking into the French Broad valley at 72 which will likely cut down on totals this run Mainly from the nortwest where CAD has little effect. That's the snowhole in Madison County, N Asheville that we usually see with these storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Nam is eh... GFS is eh but a little better, CMC is booyah. Summary of midday models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Nice to see the CMC come around.... finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Freezing rain would definitely cut down accumulation totals in the Northern French Broad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 This is starting to look like your typical 4-6 or 6-8 inch storm with some sleet and ice on top. Nothing once in a generational.. Could be wrong but that seems to be the trend today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: This is starting to look like your typical 4-6 or 6-8 inch storm with some sleet and ice on top. Nothing once in a generational.. Could be wrong but that seems to be the trend today I'd gladly take that and run... It's December 6th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, BretWheatley said: I'd gladly take that and run... It's December 6th! Yes but the way these models have been spitting out ridiculous amounts for days on end with ensemble means agreeing to a ridiculous extent.. it is disappointing if we get a typical storm instead of a blockbuster.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: This is starting to look like your typical 4-6 or 6-8 inch storm with some sleet and ice on top. Nothing once in a generational.. Could be wrong but that seems to be the trend today And very little this way. Already canceled our trip to dollywood and now in hope we can get our last two basketball games in Saturday morning and on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Yes but the way these models have been spitting out ridiculous amounts for days on end with ensemble means agreeing to a ridiculous extent.. it is disappointing if we get a typical storm instead of a blockbuster.. Oh, agreed, but I'd still take it. I'm not really going ALL IN until tomorrow around 2PM... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Yes but the way these models have been spitting out ridiculous amounts for days on end with ensemble means agreeing to a ridiculous extent.. it is disappointing if we get a typical storm instead of a blockbuster.. I'll agree if the QPF amounts continue to trend lower however one thing HT has stressed time and time again is not to hug snow totals on the models but rather look at QPF. If we're still dealing with 2-3" of moisture with any amount of CAD signature, after you factor in dynamic cooling, this is going to be a doozy. We also must factor in climo as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Mean for KAVL jumped from 16.58 to 20.01: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/tdorian/gefs/EMCGEFSplumes.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Here's the moment we've been waiting for! Jim Cantore is officially headed to....Asheville! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, BretWheatley said: Mean for KAVL jumped from ~15 to 20.01: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/tdorian/gefs/EMCGEFSplumes.html Boone is at 20 inches as well!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, BretWheatley said: Mean for KAVL jumped from 16.58 to 20.01: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/tdorian/gefs/EMCGEFSplumes.html We're still dealing with a ton of moisture. I still like where we sit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: Here's the moment we've been waiting for! Jim Cantore is officially headed to....Asheville! This is hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, BretWheatley said: Mean for KAVL jumped from 16.58 to 20.01: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/tdorian/gefs/EMCGEFSplumes.html Can you post it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Sw NC weather said: Can you post it Ah, crap. Got it wrong. It's still sitting at 17.5 - my mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 16 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: I'll agree if the QPF amounts continue to trend lower however one thing HT has stressed time and time again is not to hug snow totals on the models but rather look at QPF. If we're still dealing with 2-3" of moisture with any amount of CAD signature, after you factor in dynamic cooling, this is going to be a doozy. We also must factor in climo as well. Concur. and FV3 GFS (which by the way goes operational in January 2019...so why not use it....) has a MUCH better QPF response accordingly. I'm not dismissing this could be a 4-6" event, but it sure does seem like more is in the offing. We wait for 12Z Euro to confirm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said: Concur. and FV3 GFS (which by the way goes operational in January 2019...so why not use it....) has a MUCH better QPF response accordingly. I'm not dismissing this could be a 4-6" event, but it sure does seem like more is in the offing. We wait for 12Z Euro to confirm. Look how JUICY!!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: Look how JUICY!!!! Yeah, it looks great... and for a long duration storm as well. My ears remain PERKED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 HT, quick question regarding the FV3. I know it's going to be operational in a few weeks and we'd might as well use it but how far do you trust it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 23 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: Here's the moment we've been waiting for! Jim Cantore is officially headed to....Asheville! Death blow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, wncsnow said: Death blow You say that, my mind is betting thundersnow makes an appearance now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Death blow Storm cancel now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 35 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: HT, quick question regarding the FV3. I know it's going to be operational in a few weeks and we'd might as well use it but how far do you trust it? Really no reason not to trust it at the moment. It's been very consistent with this system and has better resolution than the current GFS. And yes, will go operational in January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Ukie looks good too. So CMC, GFS, FV3, Ukie all look like good hits for WNC. NAM at the outer fringe of it's range does not. Euro will be the tiebreaker? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, HurricaneTracker said: Really no reason not to trust it at the moment. It's been very consistent with this system and has better resolution than the current GFS. And yes, will go operational in January. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 I use 'tiebreaker' loosely. Better wording would likely be if the Euro looks good, do we toss the NAM for now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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