Tropical Storm Kirk (again)

[BlunderStorm]

Well it's certainly good to be back! Anyway, it would seem we have some more activity in the tropics to monitor starting with Kirk.

310 
WTNT42 KNHC 221436
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 22 2018

The area of low pressure located well south of the Cabo Verde
Islands now has a well-defined center and enough organized deep
convection to be considered a tropical cyclone. The initial
intensity is set to 35 kt based on data from recent ASCAT passes
that showed an area of 30-35 kt winds northwest of the center.

Kirk will be moving over SSTs around 27C for the next 36 hours or
so with generally low shear, which should allow for some gradual
strengthening. After that time, the SSTs increase quickly along the
forecast track, but the SHIPS model and global model fields show the
vertical shear increasing, in part due to the very fast low-level
easterly flow. In addition, the GFS and ECMWF global models don't
show much development of the cyclone during the forecast period. As
a result of these factors, little change in strength is forecast
after 48 hours. The NHC forecast is close to the HCCA consensus aid
through 48 hours and is near IVCN afterward.

The initial motion estimate is 280/12, but has the usual uncertainty
for a system in the early stages of development. The cyclone is
expected to be steered very quickly westward at low latitudes with
forward speeds reaching 20-25 kt over the next 72 hours to the south
of a mid-level ridge. Late in the period, some gain in latitude and
a slight decrease in forward speed are shown as a weakness in the
ridge develops to the east of the Lesser Antilles. The initial NHC
track forecast is close to HCCA and a little south of the TVCA
consensus, giving a little more weight to the GFS and ECMWF, which
lie on the south side of the track guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z  8.3N  23.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z  8.8N  25.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z  9.3N  29.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z  9.4N  34.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z  9.6N  38.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  25/1200Z 10.3N  46.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  26/1200Z 11.0N  53.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  27/1200Z 12.5N  58.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Brasiluvsnow]

Yes really glad WE ARE BACK  as I tried to login since yesterday,,,that said Kirk is indeed out there and bears watching 

 

[rescuedpup68]

It seems to be on a similar track as Isaac. And Isaac encountered a lot of shear. I am learning so please be patient... so has shear decreased?  Are environmental factors more favorable? 

[BlunderStorm]

14 hours ago, rescuedpup68 said:

It seems to be on a similar track as Isaac. And Isaac encountered a lot of shear. I am learning so please be patient... so has shear decreased?  Are environmental factors more favorable? 

Yeah, Kirk seems to mirror Isaac in a lot of ways. I didn't expect a lot of talk around this storm but should Kirk hang on for a while and in the unlikely chance he reaches favorable conditions this thread could really blow up. With the exception of Florence this year hasn't been very big for Cape Verde hurricanes. At least so far it hasn't... Anyway, conditions look pretty hostile right now for tropical development.

[hlcater]

The Caribbean as a whole has been pretty unfavorable this year. Not holding my breath.

[rescuedpup68]

On 9/24/2018 at 9:25 AM, BlunderStorm said:

Yeah, Kirk seems to mirror Isaac in a lot of ways. I didn't expect a lot of talk around this storm but should Kirk hang on for a while and in the unlikely chance he reaches favorable conditions this thread could really blow up. With the exception of Florence this year hasn't been very big for Cape Verde hurricanes. At least so far it hasn't... Anyway, conditions look pretty hostile right now for tropical development.

Got bumped back up to 70%. Look like if it stays around 10N it might have a chance to redevelop. 

[BlunderStorm]

I'm not sure if the convection is around the center of low pressure but there seems to be some impressive -80C cloud tops showing up on Goes 16 IR from the remnants of Kirk. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=12L&product=ir