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Fall/Winter 2018-19 Complaint/Banter Thread


IWXwx
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7 minutes ago, UMB WX said:

Yr 4 in a row of shitty winters IMBY so this stink is nothing new and I don't really care either way if it snows again this winter.  I do thoroughly enjoy the meltdowns so there is something positive about this ratter so far.

I take some weird pleasure in the meltdowns too.  

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1 hour ago, Angrysummons said:

If by the 20th, there is no hope on the models through the rest of the month, I am sure buckeye will give a classic meltdown post with JB's head on a platter as part of the post. Hopefully it doesn't come to that, but be forewarned..................

Im looking forward to going full nuclear troll if this pattern fails.   JB, LC, DT, are all in my cross hairs.  I can't guarantee Don S will be spared either.   Tell me this is going to be an epic winter....winter of yore....better damn well produce.  As of now the farmers almanac and the cfsv2 are schooling these dudes.

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You know what I think?  If you ever see somebody say that the winter is going to be epic, turn away as fast as you can.  I think you can look at analogs, etc and come up with a general idea of how the pattern may go, but even if you're right and it looks like the greatest thing you've ever seen, you could get screwed on enough individual systems to prevent it from being an epic winter.  Let's face it, we judge the winter more on snow output.  

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14 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

You know what I think?  If you ever see somebody say that the winter is going to be epic, turn away as fast as you can.  I think you can look at analogs, etc and come up with a general idea of how the pattern may go, but even if you're right and it looks like the greatest thing you've ever seen, you could get screwed on enough individual systems to prevent it from being an epic winter.  Let's face it, we judge the winter more on snow output.  

I think what makes this winter different is that pretty much every forecaster was in full hype mode.   

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5 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I think what makes this winter different is that pretty much every forecaster was in full hype mode.   

I didn't see the forecasts from all the big guys.  If they were going for a colder/snowier than average winter, that's one thing.  Sometimes you're wrong, and who knows, maybe we'll get a huge flip yet.  I'm saying that anybody who was going for a historic winter was just trying to get extra attention, because I don't believe the science is capable of flagging that on a seasonal timescale, especially for snowfall.  

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29 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I think what makes this winter different is that pretty much every forecaster was in full hype mode.   

The reason why is that some saw similarities to 13-14 and automatically assumed that winter was going to be a snow blitz.

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5 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

I posted the winter cancel above as a joke, but as a winter lover it can get pretty depressing with 2" going into the new year. I checked IND and IWX temps and they both have had above normal temps for the past 21 days straight.

yep it seems like there really hasn't been a true cold winter day in like a month in indy. It's awful. We've had a horrible string of winters here since 14-15. Last year was bad until the March 24 storm but it was late in the year and during a time where we all just wanted a warm up. I hate storms where u know the snow will be gone the next day

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58 minutes ago, Stebo said:

The reason why is that some saw similarities to 13-14 and automatically assumed that winter was going to be a snow blitz.

I'll admit to buying into the borderline Modoki Nino which allows for some pretty decent analog averages of cold/snow across S Lakes. But so far, this Modoki is misbehaving badly so my analog list is pretty much useless :lmao:

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I figured we'd have a down period after that big late November storm, but didn't think it would be quite this quiet.  Only 0.8" since November 26th here.  Like I said before though that November storm made the whole winter for me, so anything else that falls is pretty much a bonus, even if we come in well under average.  

Last winter it had been VERY quiet up to this point.  In fact we had <10" going into early Feb, and then all hell broke loose the final few months.  Finished with 40.6".  Still plenty of time to turn things around and many areas can still catch back up in a hurry.  

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3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

You know what I think?  If you ever see somebody say that the winter is going to be epic, turn away as fast as you can.  I think you can look at analogs, etc and come up with a general idea of how the pattern may go, but even if you're right and it looks like the greatest thing you've ever seen, you could get screwed on enough individual systems to prevent it from being an epic winter.  Let's face it, we judge the winter more on snow output.  

“Winter is going to be epic” is what sells unfortunately.

And the worst part is the banter drives up the price of your heat, only to have December at +10 departures across the upper Midwest 

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4 hours ago, weatherbo said:

you care :wub:

Haha, yeah:wub: At 44 yrs old I get just as amped waiting for that  first flake of every event to fly in the floodlight as I did when i was 4. But as you get older and realize just how bad your climo is, I've come to accept that outside of living in a FES Belt - the Midwest just sucks for a snow pack weenie like myself and as so I don't let my expectations of winter rise above the the terrible winter wx weenie climo we live in.

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Nino winters never ever excite me so thankfully I didn't take the bait and had this winter pegged for meh before it started.  Also the cold and snow in fall just had the feel of we will pay for it when it matters to me during the holidays.   Sure enough another dud december.  There is still hope for those off to the  south and east to pull off a fine 2nd half to winter for sure.    

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Not that it should matter since its going to be in mid to upper 40s by the weekend, but I'm barely missing an overachiever. Up to 4" in some spots in the northern GTA. 

Since this is the banter thread, at what point will you throw in the towel on the season? For me I have the towel out, but Ill wait another few weeks. If the end of January and beginning of February show no promise Ill start waving it and cheering on an early spring  

 

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5 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

Not that it should matter since its going to be in mid to upper 40s by the weekend, but I'm barely missing an overachiever. Up to 4" in some spots in the northern GTA. 

Since this is the banter thread, at what point will you throw in the towel on the season? For me I have the towel out, but Ill wait another few weeks. If the end of January and beginning of February show no promise Ill start waving it and cheering on an early spring  

 

I think you'll shovel once or twice before the month is out.

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anyone who has a wxbell subscription needs to watch JB's atmospheric avenger vid from this morning.   He's lost his mind, laughing throughout the entire vid while babbling about how every indice is going exactly as he forecasted except the weather isn't cooperating.    He even said he's not going to use the delayed not denied excuse.   If the pattern hasn't changed by the 20th his forecast will have been garbage and he doens't care what happens after that.   :lol:

Seriously....straight-jacket worthy stuff :blink:

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20 minutes ago, buckeye said:

anyone who has a wxbell subscription needs to watch JB's atmospheric avenger vid from this morning.   He's lost his mind, laughing throughout the entire vid while babbling about how every indice is going exactly as he forecasted except the weather isn't cooperating.    He even said he's not going to use the delayed not denied excuse.   If the pattern hasn't changed by the 20th his forecast will have been garbage and he doens't care what happens after that.   :lol:

Seriously....straight-jacket worthy stuff :blink:

He busts almost nonstop. You can't predict weather more than 10 days out.

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Im looking forward to going full nuclear troll if this pattern fails.   JB, LC, DT, are all in my cross hairs.  I can't guarantee Don S will be spared either.   Tell me this is going to be an epic winter....winter of yore....better damn well produce.  As of now the farmers almanac and the cfsv2 are schooling these dudes.
It has been pretty comical around these parts. The December to remember was being pitched in early November. It kept getting pushed back. Christmas we were going to get blasted and then New Years and now they have finally punted till the 20th. If we get down to climo it will be talked up like the next ice age and victory declared.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

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34 minutes ago, buckeye said:

anyone who has a wxbell subscription needs to watch JB's atmospheric avenger vid from this morning.   He's lost his mind, laughing throughout the entire vid while babbling about how every indice is going exactly as he forecasted except the weather isn't cooperating.    He even said he's not going to use the delayed not denied excuse.   If the pattern hasn't changed by the 20th his forecast will have been garbage and he doens't care what happens after that.   :lol:

Seriously....straight-jacket worthy stuff :blink:

On his daily update (free on his site), he is a little less crazy, but still visibly concerned about his forecast.

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3 minutes ago, (((Will))) said:

Thank god for that.

 

Cloudiness is better than sun in any situation. 

 

One of my greatest memories was the period from early November 2016 to around January 10, 2017 wherein EVERY SINGLE DAY was cloudy up here. 

And we had measurable snow EVERY SINGLE DAY between early December and early January. 

 

People up here worn newbies that it's not just snow and cold - you gotta get ready for the 2-3 months of the year where you don't see the sun.

You obviously dont have SAD. For most "normal" people, seeing the sun makes them happier.

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