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Carvers Gap

Fall Banter 2018

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9 hours ago, Coach B said:

Thanks! You are right down the road from where my folks live and I grew up. Spent plenty of time running up and down Concord Road back in the 80s and 90s! 

Wish they'd stop the development around here.Traffic is insane enough.This all goes with Nashville,the Metro is now over 2M people

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Just wanted to thank you all of the great posts.  Wednesday, had a bout w a kidney stone.  Wowza, did that thing hurt!!!  I was literally rolling around in the ER in terrible pain.  So embarrassing in retrospect!  LOL. It "appears" it has passed.  Had a good report from the urologist today.  Anyway, just being able to read/respond to posts made the time go by a bit more quickly.  So, many thanks to EVERYONE on the forum.  Have a great weekend and GBO!!!

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15 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Just wanted to thank you all of the great posts.  Wednesday, had a bout w a kidney stone.  Wowza, did that thing hurt!!!  I was literally rolling around in the ER in terrible pain.  So embarrassing in retrospect!  LOL. It "appears" it has passed.  Had a good report from the urologist today.  Anyway, just being able to read/respond to posts made the time go by a bit more quickly.  So, many thanks to EVERYONE on the forum.  Have a great weekend and GBO!!!

My mom had kidney stones a couple weeks ago and said the pain was worse than labor ! Needless to say I am now terrified of getting a kidney stone. Anyway, glad you are feeling better.

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48 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

My mom had kidney stones a couple weeks ago and said the pain was worse than labor ! Needless to say I am now terrified of getting a kidney stone. Anyway, glad you are feeling better.

I had one when I was 13.  None since then.  So, I thought maybe I had dodged that bullet - meaning folks are 50/50 to get a second one.  Nope.  Happened on Halloween Day.  

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Has anyone ever heard old timers say look at the walnuts from the trees, they’ll tell you what type of winter we will have??  I’ve got a guy at work who has been at Memphis national for 45 years and he told me yesterday that he noticed how large the walnuts were this year, he then told me in all his years that those walnuts rarely get this big.  And when they are, it’s a sign of an active/cold winter coming.  Has anyone else every heard anything like this?

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11 hours ago, BlunderStorm said:

The latest FV3-GFS depicts a Tennessee Valley winter fantasy near the end of its run...:snowing:

 

I'm actually a little interested in this period now. No joke. After the bigger storm late next week, both operational GFS and Euro show energy trying to dig in almost immediately afterwards early the week of the the 12th. This energy is riding down on the trough carved out by the two larger storms this week.  Way to far out for any details or much hope, but the possibility of a storm spinning up after a couple of larger storms carve out a trough has my interest.  It's November, might as well get chasing muscles warmed up. 

0z Canadian has it too this AM. 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I'm actually a little interested in this period now. No joke. After the bigger storm late next week, both operational GFS and Euro show energy trying to dig in almost immediately afterwards early the week of the the 12th. This energy is riding down on the trough carved out by the two larger storms this week.  Way to far out for any details or much hope, but the possibility of a storm spinning up after a couple of larger storms carve out a trough has my interest.  It's November, might as well get chasing muscles warmed up. 

0z Canadian has it too this AM. 

 

 

I'll keep an eye on this potential weather system for us during the weekend. If it's still showing it a week out I might treat as more of a possibility than a far off dream. Next Friday looks a little interesting too but it will probably be cold chasing rain.

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6 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I'm actually a little interested in this period now. No joke. After the bigger storm late next week, both operational GFS and Euro show energy trying to dig in almost immediately afterwards early the week of the the 12th. This energy is riding down on the trough carved out by the two larger storms this week.  Way to far out for any details or much hope, but the possibility of a storm spinning up after a couple of larger storms carve out a trough has my interest.  It's November, might as well get chasing muscles warmed up. 

0z Canadian has it too this AM. 

 

 

Yeah, the wx models really seem to want to bring some early systems out of the GOM.  Prob would be an elevation event, but who knows.   Blunderstorm, your area is always prime for early and late events.  There have been some big highs sliding down the Plains on various models and model runs...those always have to be watched.  I still like zonal during the middle 1/3 of the month...but...we could see something right before that where a trough buries deep into the SE (eventually lifts out) or we could see something to end the zonal period.  The zonal time frame "may" actually just be a shallow eastern trough and/or a western ridge displaced slightly to the east.  The last week of November and early Dec is a big mystery for me...really hoping to see this back and forth pattern continue as these systems out of the GOM might be interesting.  The models are all over the place right now, which I usually take as mischief afoot...and I like that.

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Next week is an awfully cold pattern, with ECMWF backing. In fact the Euro has that look of a 'hidden' system(s) in the southern stream. GFS hinting. Guess just banter now though.

Remember to vote, but don't stress over election returns. Champions Classic is tonight! My Kansas plays Michigan State followed by the Kentucky Duke nightcap. Can't wait!

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22 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Next week is an awfully cold pattern, with ECMWF backing. In fact the Euro has that look of a 'hidden' system(s) in the southern stream. GFS hinting. Guess just banter now though.

Remember to vote, but don't stress over election returns. Champions Classic is tonight! My Kansas plays Michigan State followed by the Kentucky Duke nightcap. Can't wait!

  If only we could get so lucky to snag an early season system, it does look like the cold will be in place though.  I’m just excited to get some winter temps in here honestly.  Anything past that is just a huge bonus for November.  It’s Definitely something to keep an eye on though.  GFS also had a massive storm showing 350+ in its latest run, it’s always fun when we have fantasy possibilities to look at this early in winter.  Side note- That should be a great game, Jeff.  What are you and others around the program thinking about the Lawson kids potential this year??  

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Thanks AMZ8990! KU let MSU back in it, but made for an exciting finish. Duke and Kentucky decided on an NBA score, lol, also entertaining. Kansas is excited about the Lawsons. Thank you U. Memphis! Nice to have another big man with Azubuike. Grimes looks like another new star. Plus KU returns some experience this year. Jayhawk Nation is fired up.

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How about them VOLS last night @Carvers Gap?  I thought we looked pretty good considering it was the first regular season game.  We’ve got 5 or 6 guys who can lead us in scoring on any given night, that imo is gonna pay huge dividends for us as we move through the season!  Duke looked absolutely amazing against Kentucky last night, (i knew their preseason ranking was to high, lol). @nrgjeff- your Jayhawks look good, the Lawson kid will be a man amongst boys for you all this year!! 

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3 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Thanks AMZ8990! KU let MSU back in it, but made for an exciting finish. Duke and Kentucky decided on an NBA score, lol, also entertaining. Kansas is excited about the Lawsons. Thank you U. Memphis! Nice to have another big man with Azubuike. Grimes looks like another new star. Plus KU returns some experience this year. Jayhawk Nation is fired up.

  You can thank Tubby Smith for that, haha.  If it wasn’t for penny then Memphis fans would be unbearable this year in regards to complaing about losing the Lawson’s.  Glad to hear jay hawk nation is fired up, should be a fun season for you all as well as VOL fans!

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4 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

How about them VOLS last night @Carvers Gap?  I thought we looked pretty good considering it was the first regular season game.  We’ve got 5 or 6 guys who can lead us in scoring on any given night, that imo is gonna pay huge dividends for us as we move through the season!  Duke looked absolutely amazing against Kentucky last night, (i knew their preseason ranking was to high, lol). @nrgjeff- your Jayhawks look good, the Lawson kid will be a man amongst boys for you all this year!! 

We have a really good team.  Pat Summitt used to speak about teams needing to learn how to hand both success and failure.  I am definitely interested to see how we handle success.  I think Barnes will keep them level headed.  We will get everyone's best game, but I really like how he emphasizes rebounding and defensive basketball.  Every time a ball is rebounded, it takes a possession from the other team....it is like a mini-turnover.  If they will buy-in and rebound...they have the potential to go far.  And also, really likable guys who represent UT the right way.  Looking forward to a very fun season.  I hope I am sitting in front of the wood stove on many snowy nights watching the Vols play a great brand of basketball.  

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15 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

We have a really good team.  Pat Summitt used to speak about teams needing to learn how to hand both success and failure.  I am definitely interested to see how we handle success.  I think Barnes will keep them level headed.  We will get everyone's best game, but I really like how he emphasizes rebounding and defensive basketball.  Every time a ball is rebounded, it takes a possession from the other team....it is like a mini-turnover.  If they will buy-in and rebound...they have the potential to go far.  And also, really likable guys who represent UT the right way.  Looking forward to a very fun season.  I hope I am sitting in front of the wood stove on many snowy nights watching the Vols play a great brand of basketball.  

 

14 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

On the wood stove front...looks like I am going to get to fire that baby up next week!  

  Great point, they did a pretty good job of handling it last year but that’s with no expectations on the team.  Preseason top 10 rankings can do strange things to teams sometimes, hopefully our veteran players realize that and won’t let anything bad happen.  Our guys on this team are great embassadors of Tennessee, it is fun to see them play the right way.   We sure lucked out getting coach Barnes here.  His recruiting is on the upswing too which is a nice bonus.  I with u though, I think we can make some noise this year if we stick to the game plan coach b has set.  I wish I still had a wood stove, nothing like chopping Kin lin on a cold night.  And your right, it definitely looks like your gonna need to fire it up next week.  Can you remember the last time we had such a stout cold front so early in the season??

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8 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

Great point, they did a pretty good job of handling it last year but that’s with no expectations on the team.  Preseason top 10 rankings can do strange things to teams sometimes, hopefully our veteran players realize that and won’t let anything bad happen.  Our guys on this team are great embassadors of Tennessee, it is fun to see them play the right way.   We sure lucked out getting coach Barnes here.  His recruiting is on the upswing too which is a nice bonus.  I with u though, I think we can make some noise this year if we stick to the game plan coach b has set.  I wish I still had a wood stove, nothing like chopping Kin lin on a cold night.  And your right, it definitely looks like your gonna need to fire it up next week.  Can you remember the last time we had such a stout cold front so early in the season??

There have been a few.  One year, it seemed that we "used up" all available cold on this side of the planet during November...but can't remember what year it was.  Seems like winter went pretty warm after that - I don't see that as a problem this time just trying to remember cold fronts.  It has been interesting to see the models miss this upcoming amplification.  To me, accumulating snow during mid-November is like snow during early April...it can happen, but just rare.  But if there ever were a pattern that would yield snow during mid-November, we are potentially looking at it.  The thing is, great patterns sometimes don't yield snow even during the best of times.  The atmosphere is so much different right now than it is during mid-winter...it is still in transition to winter.  But snow can happen during November in the valley, but it is rare.  That said, that is a pretty rare pattern on the models with the trough potential being that deep.  I generally think accumulating snow in November is some bad mojo.  LOL.  I am likely superstitious with that...no idea if any science supports that.  With Sandy we had huge snows in the Smokies and maybe another one around the South Carolina game a few years back(hoping I am not remember the same event - meaning the Gamecock snow and Sandy are the same year).  Seems like the following winters went to the dogs.  Come to think of it...that November that I mentioned above, it took the cold like two months to reload which is why that was a weird deal...I actually think the cold is a good sign regarding this winter along with the precip.  

Maybe someone can look, but maybe a 24 hour snowfall record or overall even record was set during a November...I am not calling for that, but just pointing out that while this month is normally void of accumulating snows...there are times when anomalies happen during November.

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32 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yep.  The most snow during one day happened on November 21st, 1952.  TRI recorded 16.2".  Even then, that must have seemed really strange!  

Wow, 16.2 is a big time event.  That’s amazing that it was in November.  I don’t know about you, but 16.2 anywhere in our forum in one event would seem other worldly. Ha.  

 

35 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

There have been a few.  One year, it seemed that we "used up" all available cold on this side of the planet during November...but can't remember what year it was.  Seems like winter went pretty warm after that - I don't see that as a problem this time just trying to remember cold fronts.  It has been interesting to see the models miss this upcoming amplification.  To me, accumulating snow during mid-November is like snow during early April...it can happen, but just rare.  But if there ever were a pattern that would yield snow during mid-November, we are potentially looking at it.  The thing is, great patterns sometimes don't yield snow even during the best of times.  The atmosphere is so much different right now than it is during mid-winter...it is still in transition to winter.  But snow can happen during November in the valley, but it is rare.  That said, that is a pretty rare pattern on the models with the trough potential being that deep.  I generally think accumulating snow in November is some bad mojo.  LOL.  I am likely superstitious with that...no idea if any science supports that.  With Sandy we had huge snows in the Smokies and maybe another one around the South Carolina game a few years back(hoping I am not remember the same event - meaning the Gamecock snow and Sandy are the same year).  Seems like the following winters went to the dogs.  Come to think of it...that November that I mentioned above, it took the cold like two months to reload which is why that was a weird deal...I actually think the cold is a good sign regarding this winter along with the precip.  

Maybe someone can look, but maybe a 24 hour snowfall record or overall even record was set during a November...I am not calling for that, but just pointing out that while this month is normally void of accumulating snows...there are times when anomalies happen during November.

  I’m with you on being superstitious, I think we all have one thing or another that makes us weary.  Snow in November is rare so I could see where it could make u superstitious.  Nice to know there is a good chance of more cold air after this upcoming event too.   It is some pretty intense cold air being shown on the models, the hunters will definitely be excited about that.  Models are all showing some sort of precipitation around that time frame with the cold air, could be a cold air chasing the precip situation though. The 11th threw the 14th timeframe is looking more and more interesting though.  GFS has had a consistent look the past three runs with some sort of wintry weather hitting some part of the state of tennesse, CMC has had great, to so-so looks the last 4 runs, 2 good chances of some wintry weather, and one rainy look with the other run being a dry look.  It will be interesting to see which looks come back around as we get closer to November 11th-13th.  Cold air definitely looks like it is going to be around during the mentioned time period though.

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yep.  The most snow during one day happened on November 21st, 1952.  TRI recorded 16.2".  Even then, that must have seemed really strange!  

1952??? Holy crap, that's even older than ME! ;) 

Have no fear my friends, I'm scheduled to fly to Vancouver, BC around New Years and then to Mexico in mid-February...I can guarantee awful snow/ice/inland typhoons and possibly plagues of locusts for those time frames! Separated by periods of 90 degree droughts, of course. :D

Excellent disco in this, and the Fall/Winter threads! Thanks for all of your hard work, as always! 

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

On the wood stove front...looks like I am going to get to fire that baby up next week!  

I fired up the Jotul(inside stove) back in October. The cold next week will force me to fire up the big dog(Hardy outdoor wood boiler). That sucker is a beast when it comes to heating in really cold weather. Unfortunately, its also an older model so it smokes like a freight train so I limit it to the core of winter. 

Nashville recorded 7.2" of snow on November 2nd back in 1966! I think 96 was the last mid-November or earlier significant accumulation I can remember. 

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6 minutes ago, kvskelton said:

1952??? Holy crap, that's even older than ME! ;) 

Have no fear my friends, I'm scheduled to fly to Vancouver, BC around New Years and then to Mexico in mid-February...I can guarantee awful snow/ice/inland typhoons and possibly plagues of locusts for those time frames! Separated by periods of 90 degree droughts, of course. :D

Excellent disco in this, and the Fall/Winter threads! Thanks for all of your hard work, as always! 

@John1122 has a similar teleconnection.  He has somewhere that he travels during winter, and you can be guaranteed that it will snow while he is gone...

Yeah, 1952...I am not sure how I remembered reading that other than it is such an unusual event!  LOL

Always glad to see the band get back together each fall!  Our forum has grown to encompass folks from most corners of the region.  

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2 minutes ago, Coach B said:

I fired up the Jotul(inside stove) back in October. The cold next week will force me to fire up the big dog(Hardy outdoor wood boiler). That sucker is a beast when it comes to heating in really cold weather. 

Nashville recorded 7.2" of snow on November 2nd back in 1966! I think 96 was the last mid-November or earlier significant accumulation I can remember. 

Awesome...while we were in Montana a couple of weeks ago, I used the wood stove insert in the cabin where we stayed...that thing about ran us out of the house one night due to its efficiency!  It got warm.  It had been in the single digits a few nights before, so we had gotten used to making a fire in the evening.  Well, it was in the upper 30s/lower 40s outside when we fired it up that night....that cabin got pretty toasty.  It did not overtire...nothing like that.  It just did its job.  

An outdoor boiler?!  Bet that is awesome to have.  Is that a new edition?

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