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Fall Speculation 2018


AMZ8990
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Confidence is increasing we finally get some fall weather per timing just above. Mid-latitudes and tropics appear to both attack the SER.

Tropics stuff can cause heat in August, but in October they usually end up ushering in cooler weather.

Then the mid-latitude system has a robust cold air mass with which to work. Cold probably won't rush in here, but the SER can't resist forever. 

OK it just held up for a really long time, but that's not forever, lol!

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25 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

We tied the record Thursday dating back in the 1890's,Hit 92 yesterday and also tied that record back in 1954,both for record highs.Thursday was 91.

 

Wow!  Been like that here too.  Pretty crazy stuff for October.  I haven’t verified but I’m sure we broke a record once over the past 2 weeks.

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Hoping for a decent system  just past the mid month.The Euro looks to fast but at the same time by Wednesday which would be the 10th has a nice closed low around North Korea and China.The GEFS shows volatility with the PNA.Our "HP'  looks to get broke down mid week,so we'll see.Would love to hear some thunder with some BN temps afterwards,probably to early for fall severe with a good frontal passage.So we'll see once again.

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GFS at 12z is all in for a freeze most areas North of 40 between day 8-10. The Euro from last night was suggest mid to upper 30s in those areas. The Canadian is about 15-20 degrees warmer in the same time frame than the GFS and is the warmest of the three. The experimental FV3 GFS is closer to the Euro. Either way, we're going to abruptly go from mid summer temperatures to mid fall temperatures. Highs will probably not get out of the 60s in some areas this weekend. Higher elevations will see 40s and 50s for highs. Crazy year, 90s to 60s without much middle ground and a few days apart.

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The Euro Weeklies (run is not completed...I can see some of the drop down menu for the full run) look like they are now advertising a pattern change and not just a one-off week or two of cold.  They have been slowly moving towards this for a couple of runs.  The end of the run washes out and goes zonal which is definitely an option if the trough retreats into Canada.  Overall, very nice sign for some good ol' fall weather in the valleys and cold at elevation.  @nrgjeff, what do you think about the run.  I am keeping it short so as to give you plenty of room to maneuver.  Give us some Rock Chalk spin!  (am I doing that right?)  :thumbsup:

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Euro goes all in cooler pattern. Is it playing on tilt? CFS hints and more zonal or split flow, vs meridonal, in later weeks. CFS has in the past sniffed out warmer regimes. However some teleconnections support the Euro. Short term issues like Michael dominate my time though. At least we know endless summer is over!

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It would be very nice to get that cooler November. Even 1 degree below normal seems to make a pretty big difference in how winter plays out. It's not a guaranteed analog, nothing ever is in long range weather and we could freeze in November and still torch, but that cooler set up going into winter helps more often than it hurts. I assume it gives our source cold region more snowpack building time. We need a good snowpack over Southern Canada, the Dakotas and Minnesota as early as possible. Some of our extreme warmth winters had those areas snow free until well into December.

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11 hours ago, *Flash* said:

Ran some #'s this morning. BNA at +13.0° for the month as of 10/12 (+8.4° from the warmest October on record, 1919). Projecting out for the rest of the month, there's a real chance we finish the month somewhere between +3.0°-4.0° going -3.0°-4.0° the rest of the way. Really puts the pattern change in perspective.

Good stuff, Flash!

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Wouldn't trust no model quite yet.But the GFS seems to be catching on somewhat with the typhoon with what the Euro has been consistent with other than timing,have to wait a few more days.But this is what the control shows this afternoon.But by Wed. you can see a ridge building up into Korea,then a trough,typhoon to follow on the Euro.The control shows a ridge in the Tn Valley.But like i said before we'll have to watch the teleconnections.With the right teleconnections, S/Korea with the dots connects to the Tn Valley,throughs and ridges.Control at the bottom is 360 hrs out or Nov 5th

11.png

AccuWeather com® Professional   Forecast Models.png

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9 hours ago, John1122 said:

The GFS just cooked up a high mountain heavy snow event next week from basically a miller A system. Mostly confined to North Carolina but a few inches at Roan Mountain and those areas would be on tap.

If all the factors lined up right I could see the NC high country 3000ft+ and SWVA (in the New River Valley) having a surprise snow event on their hands. The GFS kept that into the 6z run. I can certainly see the possibility of a late October snowstorm in the interior NE.

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Just back from a trip to southwest Montana and Yellowstone NP.  This was my first time out there during the fall season.  I listened to the Auburn/TN game via satellite radio in a parking lot at the Norris Geyser Basin during a snowstorm.  It was touch-and-go regarding driving and the park service wisely shut down the roads.  Unfortunately(well, maybe fortunately....:snowing:), we got stuck in the park until the roads were cleared.  The final totals were 4-5" at 7,000'.  During our stay in the park, the snow would remain for much of our stay, especially on north facing slopes of mountains and canyons.  I went jogging one morning, and it was single digits!   By the end of the week, we had highs in the upper 50s and lows in the 20s.  What a wild week of weather!

So, we get back last night(love those four hour flight delays) to TYS, and I immediately noticed that we are THANKFULLY we are getting a decent respite from the mega ridge that has dominated the first half of fall.  The temps last night and this morning felt like out West!  Frost covered the ground.

As I look into the crystal ball of weather models, it looks like some type of ridge will return.  It is depicted on both the 0z EPS and 6z GEFS(and has been there for a couple of days).  I can't decide if this ridge sticks or if it just rolls on through.  I lean towards it sticking for at least a week - give or take a day.  My concern is that the ridge is beginning to look like the base pattern.  Sometimes it gets beaten down, but it really wants to be over the SE.  I am not entirely sure that we are in a different pattern than last winter where that mega ridge would show for weeks-on-end only to be squashed by periods of severe cold.  My point, I don't think the El Nino pattern is in place yet.  I thought this current trough might be the signal for pattern change.  I am going to back away from that idea at least for this week.  I am leaning(though not convinced) that the mega ridge pattern relaxed just a bit and the cold to the northwest rushed in.  I am not sure that pattern has run its course.  I do think its days are numbered, but I am now thinking that November has a decent chance to average out slightly AN.  

Euro Weeklies roll tonight, and those have been cold for a couple of runs.  However, this morning's 0z run was pretty warm during week 2 which does not jive with Thursday's Weeklies.  So, have to think those Weeklies look a bit warmer tonight. This will be a good test.  I hope it holds and casts doubt on the return to sustained warmth(relative to late October). Overall, I still like my original winter ideas w Dec being a bit warm, Jan normal, and Feb slightly below.  As for Fall, have to think we are approaching another round of the ridge.  I would be surprised if it had the staying power that the recent one did.

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Just back from a trip to southwest Montana and Yellowstone NP.  This was my first time out there during the fall season.  I listened to the Auburn/TN game via satellite radio in a parking lot at the Norris Geyser Basin during a snowstorm.  It was touch-and-go regarding driving and the park service wisely shut down the roads.  Unfortunately(well, maybe fortunately....:snowing:), we got stuck in the park until the roads were cleared.  The final totals were 4-5" at 7,000'.  During our stay in the park, the snow would remain for much of our stay, especially on north facing slopes of mountains and canyons.  I went jogging one morning, and it was single digits!   By the end of the week, we had highs in the upper 50s and lows in the 20s.  What a wild week of weather!

So, we get back last night(love those four hour flight delays) to TYS, and I immediately noticed that we are THANKFULLY we are getting a decent respite from the mega ridge that has dominated the first half of fall.  The temps last night and this morning felt like out West!  Frost covered the ground.

As I look into the crystal ball of weather models, it looks like some type of ridge will return.  It is depicted on both the 0z EPS and 6z GEFS(and has been there for a couple of days).  I can't decide if this ridge sticks or if it just rolls on through.  I lean towards it sticking for at least a week - give or take a day.  My concern is that the ridge is beginning to look like the base pattern.  Sometimes it gets beaten down, but it really wants to be over the SE.  I am not entirely sure that we are in a different pattern than last winter where that mega ridge would show for weeks-on-end only to be squashed by periods of severe cold.  My point, I don't think the El Nino pattern is in place yet.  I thought this current trough might be the signal for pattern change.  I am going to back away from that idea at least for this week.  I am leaning(though not convinced) that the mega ridge pattern relaxed just a bit and the cold to the northwest rushed in.  I am not sure that pattern has run its course.  I do think its days are numbered, but I am now thinking that November has a decent chance to average out slightly AN.  

Euro Weeklies roll tonight, and those have been cold for a couple of runs.  However, this morning's 0z run was pretty warm during week 2 which does not jive with Thursday's Weeklies.  So, have to think those Weeklies look a bit warmer tonight. This will be a good test.  I hope it holds and casts doubt on the return to sustained warmth(relative to late October). Overall, I still like my original winter ideas w Dec being a bit warm, Jan normal, and Feb slightly below.  As for Fall, have to think we are approaching another round of the ridge.  I would be surprised if it had the staying power that the recent one did.

Welcome back, glad you got to see snow while on your trip!  It will be interesting to see how the next ridge play out.  I'm not convinced we see any more mega ridges, but I'm open to the possibility of an above normal November.  The storm at the end of the week should yank down some additional below normal temps and maybe the first flakes for the higher elevations on a brisk northwest flow.  What is for certain, sweating things out at 90+ is gone for the year.........

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Just back from a trip to southwest Montana and Yellowstone NP.  This was my first time out there during the fall season.  I listened to the Auburn/TN game via satellite radio in a parking lot at the Norris Geyser Basin during a snowstorm.  It was touch-and-go regarding driving and the park service wisely shut down the roads.  Unfortunately(well, maybe fortunately....:snowing:), we got stuck in the park until the roads were cleared.  The final totals were 4-5" at 7,000'.  During our stay in the park, the snow would remain for much of our stay, especially on north facing slopes of mountains and canyons.  I went jogging one morning, and it was single digits!   By the end of the week, we had highs in the upper 50s and lows in the 20s.  What a wild week of weather!

So, we get back last night(love those four hour flight delays) to TYS, and I immediately noticed that we are THANKFULLY we are getting a decent respite from the mega ridge that has dominated the first half of fall.  The temps last night and this morning felt like out West!  Frost covered the ground.

As I look into the crystal ball of weather models, it looks like some type of ridge will return.  It is depicted on both the 0z EPS and 6z GEFS(and has been there for a couple of days).  I can't decide if this ridge sticks or if it just rolls on through.  I lean towards it sticking for at least a week - give or take a day.  My concern is that the ridge is beginning to look like the base pattern.  Sometimes it gets beaten down, but it really wants to be over the SE.  I am not entirely sure that we are in a different pattern than last winter where that mega ridge would show for weeks-on-end only to be squashed by periods of severe cold.  My point, I don't think the El Nino pattern is in place yet.  I thought this current trough might be the signal for pattern change.  I am going to back away from that idea at least for this week.  I am leaning(though not convinced) that the mega ridge pattern relaxed just a bit and the cold to the northwest rushed in.  I am not sure that pattern has run its course.  I do think its days are numbered, but I am now thinking that November has a decent chance to average out slightly AN.  

Euro Weeklies roll tonight, and those have been cold for a couple of runs.  However, this morning's 0z run was pretty warm during week 2 which does not jive with Thursday's Weeklies.  So, have to think those Weeklies look a bit warmer tonight. This will be a good test.  I hope it holds and casts doubt on the return to sustained warmth(relative to late October). Overall, I still like my original winter ideas w Dec being a bit warm, Jan normal, and Feb slightly below.  As for Fall, have to think we are approaching another round of the ridge.  I would be surprised if it had the staying power that the recent one did.

That’s awesome Carver, hope You and the family had fun on your trip.  That’s a nice bonus that y’all got to see snow on the ground.  Hopefully you can bring back some of that snow mojo back to Tennessee with you!!!  

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1 hour ago, AMZ8990 said:

That’s awesome Carver, hope You and the family had fun on your trip.  That’s a nice bonus that y’all got to see snow on the ground.  Hopefully you can bring back some of that snow mojo back to Tennessee with you!!!  

While I do realize that I cannot in any way control the weather...it promptly warmed-up after we were there a few days.  I am good with that...cause single digits after low 90s is pushing my acclimation limits.  For good fishing, scuzzy weather is the best(rain, snow, rain/snow mix, etc) for good hatches of fall mayflies called blue winged olives.  I get back here and the weather feels awesome, as in cold.  I hop on Tropical Tidbits and the ridge is making an appearance in the SE for the long range(not the death ridge as tnweathernut correctly notes).  I hope that I did not bring back the ridge!!!  All said tongue in cheek...but it is going to cool off and snow again this week there.  Hmmm....

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I enjoy some fall cold outbreaks but every once in a while it's nice to have a warm respite as long it's transient in nature. Bouncing off Carver and tnweathernut this isn't a summer death ridge this is a mid-day room temperature ridge. If the pattern does flip back for a while at least it will help build the snowpack on the Canadian prairie.

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@nrgjeff, what did you think about the Euro Weeklies?  They look pretty steady compared to previous runs.  I would have expected a much warmer run.   They "seem" to try to line-up with its initial DJF progression(have not seen the most recent DJF Euro output)...and maybe show one path to a cool December after a pattern where the ridge fights back, gets squashed, rinse-repeat...BN heights over the SE eventually land the final blow to grab a boxing analogy.  The overall look was BN for the East.  Looks to me like November will be normal-ish w some warm weeks and cool weeks averaging out....

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11 hours ago, John1122 said:

The ridge looks to be breaking down after a week or so in November. We need it to be overblown and out of here. I want no part of a warm November for the reasons I've posted about many times.

I usually like to start a month normal to below normal when trying to achieve a below normal month.  I like having a head start in trying to realize a below normal month.  It's mostly a psychological thing for me, lol.

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The GEFS backed down on the strength of the early November warmth in the SE that it was showing yesterday at this time.

12z yesterday.

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_12.png

 

Same time frame today.

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_11.png

East coast ridging yesterday 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_us_12.png

 

Today the 588 dm over Florida is not there.

Ridge is brief, retreating NE and Pacific ridging is pushing the trough eastward.

gfs-ens_z500aMean_us_11.png

 

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33 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The GEFS backed down on the strength of the early November warmth in the SE that it was showing yesterday at this time.

12z yesterday.

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_12.png

 

Same time frame today.

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_11.png

East coast ridging yesterday 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_us_12.png

 

Today the 588 dm over Florida is not there.

Ridge is brief, retreating NE and Pacific ridging is pushing the trough eastward.

gfs-ens_z500aMean_us_11.png

 

I noticed that the 0z EPS was similar as well.  Haven’t looked at 12z yet.  

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