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Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

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Maybe someone can help me understand this. I am looking at the steering layers and see a pretty clear path into eastern carolina - seems to be inline with where the majority of the models were yesterday. GFS moved away from there today and close to the Euro. Can anyone maybe point to something that would be driving it further south contrary to what it looks like in the steering layers of the atomosphere?

Screen Shot 2018-09-11 at 1.08.00 PM.png

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15 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Did anybody post the hurricane recon plots from AF308 Mission #7 into Florence? I can't find the data on Tropical Tidbits since the mission is over. It's just so neat to see these plots from Tropical Tidbits. If not, I am curious about the vortex data message pressure/ max FL wind/ max surface wind.

I have it saved on google earth. I'll post the vortex data messages and let me know if there's anything else you'd like.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 11th day of the month at 12:55Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308
Storm Number & Year: 06 in 2018
Storm Name: Florence (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 15

A. Time of Center Fix: 11th day of the month at 12:31:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.51N 64.84W
B. Center Fix Location: 400 statute miles (644 km) to the S (181°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,668m (8,753ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 951mb (28.09 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 165° at 8kts (From the SSE at 9mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 108kts (124.3mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the ENE (63°) of center fix at 12:26:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 150° at 143kts (From the SSE at 164.6mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the ENE (62°) of center fix at 12:25:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 107kts (123.1mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the SW (232°) of center fix at 12:37:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 330° at 108kts (From the NNW at 124.3mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the SW (232°) of center fix at 12:37:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 143kts (~ 164.6mph) which was observed 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the ENE (62°) from the flight level center at 12:25:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 16°C (61°F) which was observed 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the ENE (68°) from the flight level center

 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 11th day of the month at 11:10Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308
Storm Number & Year: 06 in 2018
Storm Name: Florence (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 08

A. Time of Center Fix: 11th day of the month at 10:47:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.35N 64.40W
B. Center Fix Location: 412 statute miles (663 km) to the S (177°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,669m (8,757ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 951mb (28.09 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Open in the north
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 98kts (112.8mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NW (319°) of center fix at 10:42:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 56° at 113kts (From between the NE and ENE at 130.0mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NW (317°) of center fix at 10:40:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 112kts (128.9mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SE (136°) of center fix at 10:52:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 223° at 113kts (From the SW at 130.0mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the SE (135°) of center fix at 10:53:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,053m (10,016ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 6°C (43°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 113kts (~ 130.0mph) which was observed 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NW (317°) from the flight level center at 10:40:30Z

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

CENTER DROPSONDE TERMINATED AT 13M WITH WINDS 140 DEGREES 12 KNOTS

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Last four runs of the HMON. You can easily see the uptick in forward speed, but generally the track hasn't changed.

JMqo10I.gif

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2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Interestingly, neither the HMON nor HWRF are showing any additional strengthening.  They simply keep it in a steady state.

I would say that it is strengthening right now looking at the satellite, maybe it levels off after strengthening today.

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11 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Maybe someone can help me understand this. I am looking at the steering layers and see a pretty clear path into eastern carolina - seems to be inline with where the majority of the models were yesterday. GFS moved away from there today and close to the Euro. Can anyone maybe point to something that would be driving it further south contrary to what it looks like in the steering layers of the atomosphere?

 

Steering flow isn't static.

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11 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Maybe someone can help me understand this. I am looking at the steering layers and see a pretty clear path into eastern carolina - seems to be inline with where the majority of the models were yesterday. GFS moved away from there today and close to the Euro. Can anyone maybe point to something that would be driving it further south contrary to what it looks like in the steering layers of the atomosphere? 

 

A stronger ridge over the Atlantic to the N/NE of Florence coupled with another ridge in the Great Lakes Region evolving into the OH Valley are the culprits to the further South and West trajectory. 

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23 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Maybe someone can help me understand this. I am looking at the steering layers and see a pretty clear path into eastern carolina - seems to be inline with where the majority of the models were yesterday. GFS moved away from there today and close to the Euro. Can anyone maybe point to something that would be driving it further south contrary to what it looks like in the steering layers of the atomosphere?

 

The ridge to the north is keeping the storm south. see the red area. the gfs had this weaker, and not as far west, in previous runs, thus it allowed Florence to come up the coast more. The ridge expands west as the run goes on, which causes the stall and the eventual inland movement of Florence. The Euro has had the same depiction. 

gfs_z500a_us_11.png

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I guess the NHC could nudge the track south a bit. TVCN is still going to be to the right of the 0Z ECMWF track due to the north turn depicted by the UKMET and COAMPS. I'm not sure if the 18Z model guidance includes the 12Z Euro or not. Anyone know?

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11 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Florence has had some cold tops firing all around the eye now. Definitely watching it intensify again.

It still has an odd appearance to me, as if there is some southeasterly shear.

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12z euro looks disasterous in the way that it slows down dramatically right before making LF and looks to stall at the coast with most of its circulation on land. This is in line with most of the other guidance now. A dramatic slowdown in forward speed right before landfall is being reflected on all major guidance right now. This is concerning to say the least.

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ECMWF is a slow agonizing landfall between Wilmington and Jacksonville, NC., and a long-duration hurricane force wind event over shoreline. Florence would be weakening, but slowly until core got inland. Even if you don't get sustained major hurricane force for very long, 24-36 hrs straight of hurricane force winds is going to be devastating.

 

Edit: Fails to make landfall through 96. Just stalls near shore and then begins to drift SW.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It still has an odd appearance to me, as if there is some southeasterly shear.

I think you're confusing shear with elongation of cirrus canopy in response to outflow channels

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2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

12z euro looks disasterous in the way that it slows down dramatically right before making LF and looks to stall at the coast with most of its circulation on land. This is in line with most of the other guidance now. A dramatic slowdown in forward speed right before landfall is being reflected on all major guidance right now. This is concerning to say the least.

Likely means a weaker LF, so there's that.

Def. no more than a cat 3.

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The high pressure just squashes it down south this run and it helps that Florence is being shown progressively weaker each model run

 

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Those are the last 4 12z runs lol.

Didn't realize that, however the point is still the same.

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