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Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD


stormtracker
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Now that the GFS has produced a run that looks more realistic, let's analyze the nice ventilation on approach. Look at that Hugo-esque outflow channel to the SW. This is the same one the ECMWF had been showing around the 400-300 mb ULL over Florida. Florence will be near the edge of a southerly shear axis. I'm not yet sure if that will merely be adjacent to the southern mid-level circulation or over it. If it is over, then certainly a faster stall would induce weakening; however, if WNW motion doesn't stall until after landfall, Florence may not weaken much for it, and in fact, may be enhanced by upper-level easterly flow away from the core. This would be a timing issue between 54 and 72 hrs depending on slowdown of steering flow.

12z ECMWF is probably going to be close enough now to start nailing down that stall. It had it just inland on the 0z.1fb0c980110f12d73c90848b83684b87.gif

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22 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Are there any mechanisms which might cause the precip shield to eventually get displaced from the center like what happened with Mathew? I remember that not being modeled well at all, but it kept shifting more inland.

Matthew had an interaction with a jet entrance region that enhanced the rainfall in the precip shield.  Florence looks to just sit and dump.  Obviously, the circulation will favor the onshore flow to the north and east of the center for precipitation but for different reasons than with matthew.

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Did anybody post the hurricane recon plots from AF308 Mission #7 into Florence? I can't find the data on Tropical Tidbits since the mission is over. It's just so neat to see these plots from Tropical Tidbits. If not, I am curious about the vortex data message pressure/ max FL wind/ max surface wind.

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3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

GFS-FV3 goes south a bit, now hits the NC/SC border.

Bad news for Wilmington. It's quite plausible that Wilmington could get the RFQ, and at a trajectory perpendicular to the coast. It's too early to speculate on exact landfall of course, but earlier I really thought Wilmington had dodged a bullet.

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Maybe someone can help me understand this. I am looking at the steering layers and see a pretty clear path into eastern carolina - seems to be inline with where the majority of the models were yesterday. GFS moved away from there today and close to the Euro. Can anyone maybe point to something that would be driving it further south contrary to what it looks like in the steering layers of the atomosphere?

Screen Shot 2018-09-11 at 1.08.00 PM.png

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15 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Did anybody post the hurricane recon plots from AF308 Mission #7 into Florence? I can't find the data on Tropical Tidbits since the mission is over. It's just so neat to see these plots from Tropical Tidbits. If not, I am curious about the vortex data message pressure/ max FL wind/ max surface wind.

I have it saved on google earth. I'll post the vortex data messages and let me know if there's anything else you'd like.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 11th day of the month at 12:55Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308
Storm Number & Year: 06 in 2018
Storm Name: Florence (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 15

A. Time of Center Fix: 11th day of the month at 12:31:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.51N 64.84W
B. Center Fix Location: 400 statute miles (644 km) to the S (181°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,668m (8,753ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 951mb (28.09 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 165° at 8kts (From the SSE at 9mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 108kts (124.3mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the ENE (63°) of center fix at 12:26:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 150° at 143kts (From the SSE at 164.6mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the ENE (62°) of center fix at 12:25:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 107kts (123.1mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the SW (232°) of center fix at 12:37:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 330° at 108kts (From the NNW at 124.3mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the SW (232°) of center fix at 12:37:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 143kts (~ 164.6mph) which was observed 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the ENE (62°) from the flight level center at 12:25:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 16°C (61°F) which was observed 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the ENE (68°) from the flight level center

 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 11th day of the month at 11:10Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308
Storm Number & Year: 06 in 2018
Storm Name: Florence (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 08

A. Time of Center Fix: 11th day of the month at 10:47:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.35N 64.40W
B. Center Fix Location: 412 statute miles (663 km) to the S (177°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,669m (8,757ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 951mb (28.09 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Open in the north
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 98kts (112.8mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NW (319°) of center fix at 10:42:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 56° at 113kts (From between the NE and ENE at 130.0mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NW (317°) of center fix at 10:40:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 112kts (128.9mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SE (136°) of center fix at 10:52:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 223° at 113kts (From the SW at 130.0mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the SE (135°) of center fix at 10:53:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,053m (10,016ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 6°C (43°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 113kts (~ 130.0mph) which was observed 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NW (317°) from the flight level center at 10:40:30Z

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

CENTER DROPSONDE TERMINATED AT 13M WITH WINDS 140 DEGREES 12 KNOTS

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