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stormtracker

Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

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The cloud pattern is beginning to orient itself against the positively tilted mid-level ridge that stretches from the Tennessee Valley into the upper Mid-Atlantic. We may very well have a weak NE to SW steering flow setting up and Florence may begin moving towards the SC coast.9e61181d5e83084e268e8694f2cde8d6.gif

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On that note, the updated position statements from NHC over the past couple hours show no gain in latitude, even though they are calling the motion wnw.

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Did they change the camera angle on that Bogue Inlet Pier webcam or is it completely gone now? 

looks like it has shifted to look left of the pier. 

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8 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

extrapolation over the last 4 hours. Less than 10 mph and definitely not gaining latitude

Screen Shot 2018-09-13 at 3.33.42 PM.png

Your map actually shows it gaining latitude; for Flo to not be gaining latitude, extrap would have to be parallel to the lines of latitude on that map.

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Just now, mappy said:

looks like it has shifted to look left of the pier. 

Thanks, makes sense. Knew they went through a fierce band but didn't think it was bad enough to completely wash it away that quickly.

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3 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Winds currently 66mph at Cape Lookout. Gust to 77mph

Impressive considering they aren’t all that close to the center yet. 

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Did they change the camera angle on that Bogue Inlet Pier webcam or is it completely gone now? 

I was wondering the same thing.... kinda looks like a loop running over and over again.

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4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Did they change the camera angle on that Bogue Inlet Pier webcam or is it completely gone now? 

The Atlantic pier one is better angle from beach dune it appears. Search live Atlantic beach. Whole front of pier sways 5+ feet every so often. Motion sick just watching this.

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48 minutes ago, PressureDrop2017 said:

Three of the kiosks on the Bogue pier blew out already while we were watching, and that is just getting started. 

That area around Emerald Isle gets absolutely hammered for two days, with way worse than what is happening now. So frankly it would be surprising if that pier is still standing on Sunday

That cam is the best live view of the point of impact, thanks for posting it   

Either the camera moved, or the pier is gone. Thinking the former.

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1 minute ago, adiabatic13 said:

Flo has managed to stall about 10 miles east of shelf waters...lucky girl. Her unwinding is likely delayed until she exits the Gulf Stream.

I'm really amazed at how good she looks on radar. Not only are the moats filling in, but the entire rain shield looks to be expanding as well.

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

I'm really amazed at how good she looks on radar. Not only are the moats filling in, but the entire rain shield looks to be expanding as well.

surprising considering what she looked like just a few hours ago. Maybe the result of the improved microwave imagery we saw

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Flo has managed to stall about 40 miles east of shelf waters...lucky girl. Her unwinding is likely delayed until she exits the Gulf Stream.

 

Yes, the OHC of the Gulf Stream is pretty high and the 26°C isotherm is very deep. There will still be upwelling off the shelf in short order however due to NW flow perpendicular to the coast in the southern circulation. But half of the circulation will remain over the GS if it begins SW motion faster than forecast.

 

 

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Would stalling over the gulf stream like Florence seemingly has reduce the risk for upwelling since there should be a constant NE flow of fresh warm water?

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Would stalling over the gulf stream like Florence seemingly has reduce the risk for upwelling since there should be a constant NE flow of fresh warm water?

Probably not. I don't think the NE flow of water is fast enough/deep enough to counteract upwelling. But I agree that the inner core has actually gotten its act together rather well. I doubt it intensifies much, but it'll probably at least hold serve

 

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5 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

Nope, maybe closer to 960? Looks terrible.

Disagree - the last few frames show nice tall convection on the west side making it around the eye a fair bit. First tall convection in hours.

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6 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

Nope, maybe closer to 960? Looks terrible.

Best it's looked in 24 hour or so. 

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