Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD


stormtracker
 Share

Recommended Posts

48 minutes ago, PressureDrop2017 said:

Three of the kiosks on the Bogue pier blew out already while we were watching, and that is just getting started. 

That area around Emerald Isle gets absolutely hammered for two days, with way worse than what is happening now. So frankly it would be surprising if that pier is still standing on Sunday

That cam is the best live view of the point of impact, thanks for posting it   

Either the camera moved, or the pier is gone. Thinking the former.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, adiabatic13 said:

Flo has managed to stall about 10 miles east of shelf waters...lucky girl. Her unwinding is likely delayed until she exits the Gulf Stream.

I'm really amazed at how good she looks on radar. Not only are the moats filling in, but the entire rain shield looks to be expanding as well.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Flo has managed to stall about 40 miles east of shelf waters...lucky girl. Her unwinding is likely delayed until she exits the Gulf Stream.

 

Yes, the OHC of the Gulf Stream is pretty high and the 26°C isotherm is very deep. There will still be upwelling off the shelf in short order however due to NW flow perpendicular to the coast in the southern circulation. But half of the circulation will remain over the GS if it begins SW motion faster than forecast.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Would stalling over the gulf stream like Florence seemingly has reduce the risk for upwelling since there should be a constant NE flow of fresh warm water?

Probably not. I don't think the NE flow of water is fast enough/deep enough to counteract upwelling. But I agree that the inner core has actually gotten its act together rather well. I doubt it intensifies much, but it'll probably at least hold serve

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Probably not. I don't think the NE flow of water is fast enough/deep enough to counteract upwelling. But I agree that the inner core has actually gotten its act together rather well. I doubt it intensifies much, but it'll probably at least hold serve
 
The flow at the surface would get stalled but that would not stop the fresh supply of warm waters at deeper layers which will get mixed out via upwelling.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, mempho said:

The flow at the surface would get stalled but that would not stop the fresh supply of warm waters at deeper layers which will get mixed out via upwelling.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

But the point I was trying to make is I don't think that happens at a fast enough rate such that it outpaces the speed of upwelling, especially for a storm the size of Florence.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

*This is not a free pass to derail the thread again with talk about other storms.*  That being said, Diana in 1984 could be somewhat useful to keep in the back of the mind for what is possible with intensity since it meandered around the same area also in mid September.  After weakening from category 4, it was able to maintain category 2 status for a full day before weakening to category 1 at landfall.  Of course no two storms are exactly the same and water temps/OHC are just part of the puzzle.

 

image002.jpg

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

But the point I was trying to make is I don't think that happens at a fast enough rate such that it outpaces the speed of upwelling, especially for a storm the size of Florence.
Fair enough. I can see your point as well and it is debatable. Are there any buoys moored directly in the Gulf Stream close to the eye that would enable us to see what actually happens?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

This is classic map watching bias. There is always bursts of convection at different points. Your so desperate, your willing to believe anything.

?

The radar presentation is improving.

The satellite presentation is showing intense convection wrapping around the core.

The satellite estimated intensity (ADT) numbers are starting to rise.

 

Might be a short term trend and it goes to crap when it gets over the shallower waters but anyone looking at this objectively would agree that it is currently strengthening.

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...