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Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD


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1 minute ago, friedmators said:


Not disagreeing but radar has a hard time seeing through the eye sometimes.


.

I would be more inclined to agree with that, but the WV loop shows the dry air entrainment well. Maybe Florence will be able to burp it out and recover quickly but time is running out.

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Tornado Warning
NCC095-131515-
/O.NEW.KMHX.TO.W.0003.180913T1500Z-180913T1515Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2018

The National Weather Service in Newport has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Central Hyde County in eastern North Carolina...

* Until 1115 AM EDT.

* At 1100 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
  tornado was located near Swindell Fork, or 27 miles north of Cedar
  Island, moving west at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Swan Quarter Ferry Terminal around 1105 AM EDT.
  Rose Bay around 1110 AM EDT.
  Sladesville around 1115 AM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Please send your reports of wind and/or hail damage, including trees
or large limbs downed, by calling the National Weather Service office
in Newport at 1-800-889-6889.
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Tornado Warning
NCC013-137-131545-
/O.NEW.KMHX.TO.W.0004.180913T1519Z-180913T1545Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1119 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2018

The National Weather Service in Newport has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southeastern Beaufort County in eastern North Carolina...
  Central Pamlico County in eastern North Carolina...

* Until 1145 AM EDT.

* At 1118 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
  tornado was located near Lowland, or 24 miles northwest of Cedar
  Island, moving west at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  South Creek around 1130 AM EDT.
  Royal and Maribel around 1135 AM EDT.
  Edward around 1140 AM EDT.
  Grantsboro and Olympia around 1145 AM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Aurora, Stonewall, Mesic, Alliance, Bayboro, Vandemere and Bridgeton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Please send your reports of wind and/or hail damage, including trees
or large limbs downed, by calling the National Weather Service office
in Newport at 1-800-889-6889.

&&

LAT...LON 3513 7703 3507 7697 3506 7697 3506 7696
      3511 7694 3515 7699 3525 7690 3532 7699
      3542 7653 3539 7652 3542 7651 3543 7652
      3543 7651 3537 7647 3543 7646 3542 7645
      3527 7638 3504 7699
TIME...MOT...LOC 1518Z 070DEG 45KT 3533 7652
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20 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Tornado Warning
NCC095-131515-
/O.NEW.KMHX.TO.W.0003.180913T1500Z-180913T1515Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2018

The National Weather Service in Newport has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Central Hyde County in eastern North Carolina...

* Until 1115 AM EDT.

* At 1100 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
  tornado was located near Swindell Fork, or 27 miles north of Cedar
  Island, moving west at 45 mph...

Exceedingly rare to get a westward moving tornado. These cases of landfalling westward-moving TCs are about the only time.

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18 minutes ago, drscottsmith said:

Hopefully not an incorrect question...

Do storm observations need to go in the Storm Mode thread (here) or will there be a separate thread?

I would say to go ahead and put storm obs here until the powers above my pay scale create a separate thread for those specifically.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS and NAM destroy the area NE of ILM with rain. Seeing 38" on the GFS through hr 60, and that is a global model. 

That highlights the importance of the NHC's warning about flash flooding:

Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged
significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas
and the southern and central Appalachians through early next week,
as Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and
moves inland.
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12 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

GFS just took a step towards the 0z euro track that parallels the coast of SC.

Curious, how helpful/accurate are these models (GFS/Euro) this point so close the landfall of the storm?  Are there other models at this point in the short range that do better with storm direction?  Or is it just nowcasting at this point?

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At this point will have to remember the core may do funny things as a result of the slow movement and interaction with land, I think the models still have use as far as trends as to where they core will likely go though. Couple other points. While winds likely wont be the big story here, the unusual slow track will result in a lot of coastal areas getting the RFQ of the storm for significant duration. Will have watch where feeded bands set up later, GFS wants to pound the Jacksonville area for a long period.

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At this point will have to remember the core may do funny things as a result of the slow movement and interaction with land, I think the models still have use as far as trends as to where they core will likely go though. Couple other points. While winds likely wont be the big story here, the unusual slow track will result in a lot of coastal areas getting the RFQ of the storm for significant duration. Will have watch where feeded bands set up later, GFS wants to pound the Jacksonville area for a long period.

 

Now that Florence has slowed significantly, I am most curious if the 12z ECMWF will continue resolving SW motion down the SC coastline or go ahead and slide Florence inland over Florence, SC, as the GFS and GEM are showing.

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