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Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD


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5 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

Looking at recon observations so far there is no real eyewall left at all. It's just a huge area of category 1 winds.

That's true but it also seems a lot better organized and more symmetrical than it was earlier this morning.   Perhaps ERC?  I think we see a new eye emerge over the next 12 hours.

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Looking at satellite, Florence appears to be strengthening and in best shape over past 24 hrs. Outflow is healthy in all quadrants, good symmetry and, blossoming of deep convection within CDO.  All that said, as I mentioned yesterday Florence appears to be translating most/all of his intensification into greater size, which acts to impede potential increases in windspeed/SLP as the circulation is broadening much more than tightening. 

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1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Looking at satellite, Florence appears to be strengthening and in best shape over past 24 hrs. Outflow is healthy in all quadrants, good symmetry and, blossoming of deep convection within CDO.  All that said, as I mentioned yesterday Florence appears to be translating most/all of his intensification into greater size, which acts to impede potential increases in windspeed/SLP as the circulation is broadening much more than tightening. 

The core looks good on radar. Eyewall is now closed with a ring of deep convection starting to wrap completely around from the North. I believe we will see the reemergence of the eye this afternoon. 

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9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The core looks good on radar. Eyewall is now closed with a ring of deep convection starting to wrap completely around from the North. I believe we will see the reemergence of the eye this afternoon. 

Yea, but largely only aesthetic at this point. Hurricane windfield is enormous and still growing—this looks like a more impactful version of Ike. And it’s quite fitting being that today marks the 10 yr anniversary of Ike’s landfall in SE Texas.

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2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yea, but largely only aesthetic at this point. Hurricane windfield is enormous and still growing—this looks like a more impactful version of Ike. And it’s quite fitting being that today marks the 10 yr anniversary of Ike’s landfall in SE Texas.

Agree about the wind field but the eyewall is looking better and better on radar. Still believe this has a decent shot at intensifying some today. 

That moat in the RFQ needs to fill in, and it is trying to do so.

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Some brief drop in pressure is possible due to passing over the gulf stream. but Florence will begin to weaken a bit before landfall almost certainly due to cooler shelf waters and slowing of movement speed. Main issues with Florence are going to be significant coastal surge, Long duration of hurricane force gusts near coastal areas especially due to large wind field and slow movement, and excessive rainfall due to large circulation/slow movement. The ILM-Morehead City corridor is going to get the worst all all of these as fetch over water will pile up rainfall and make it hard for runoff to drain.

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1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Yeah, each recon plane is finding a lower max wind than the last.  Florence appears to be a large cat 1.

They actually got slightly stronger winds in the SW eyewall, but still nothing above cat 1.

Curious as to whether or not the pressure is rising, falling or steady.

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6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Agree about the wind field but the eyewall is looking better and better on radar. Still believe this has a decent shot at intensifying some today. 

That moat in the RFQ needs to fill in, and it is trying to do so.

If you’re quantifying intensification by central pressure falls, he’ll likely remain at/near steady state, but if you’re deducing intensification through an increasing area (size) of lower pressure than he will be strengthening. This is my point. 

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1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

If you’re quantifying intensification by central pressure falls, he’ll likely remain at/near steady state, but if you’re deducing intensification through an increasing area (size) of lower pressure than he will be strengthening. This is my point. 

Yes I understand. The size of the hurricane is continuing to expand however the storm itself isn't deepening. The expansion in size is actually helping to reduce the pressure gradient which in turn reduces the winds closest to the core.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

I wasn't comparing the impacts of Sandy to Florence. The comparison is because the larger wind field of lesser winds can often produce a higher category storm surge. 

I agree and sorry for misunderstanding your earlier post. On the contrary a storm like Charley 2004 had little storm surge with it and it was a high end CAT 4. 

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