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Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD


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3 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

the 18Z NAM (yes I kn ow its the NAM) is an absolute nightmare taking the eye right on the coast around Wilmington around 39 hrs then paralleling the coast while slowly weakening all the way down to Charleston at 84 hrs.

6pm gfs takes inland NC the deepest of any recent runs. Doesn’t run down coast of SC. 

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37 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

I have a hard time this storm is gonna restrengthen even a little. It looks terrible right now. 

 

Well considering the shear is weakening by the minute and the gulf stream is still in play I wouldnt count it out.  There is a window over night for it to get stronger.  Look at Harvey last year, it doesn't take a long time.

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I think the large circulation and expanded vortex / core structure goes against conventional reintensification. Deep convection and improvement of the core over the Gulf Stream could help to drop pressure again, but it would probably not be able to retighten the core gradient enough for a substantial increase in vortex wind speeds. Perhaps it maintains a steady state longer. However, this is inconsequential to the greatest shoreline threat. I am already bought into the massive surge threat Florence poses due to it having already been an intense hurricane, then developing a large wind field in the northern semicircle of the surface circulation and pushing fetch perpendicular to the Carolina shoreline.

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13 minutes ago, NYCGreg said:

Yea, the eye is gone now.  It's not DOA, but I don't believe it will be close to a major hurricane by the time it even reaches land.

It won't really matter, the effects will be the same.

I don't know what kind of hurricane people were expecting at 32-35N, it's holding pretty well. The outflow to the north and northeast looks fantastic. 

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Looking like this will be somewhere between a Fran and Isabel intensity level coming in, but the larger size and fetch will mean a greater surge threat, in addition to the slower speed. The eye becoming less distinct and issues with shear/dry air mean to me that intensity is leveling off and may decrease as it comes near shore and especially as it slows and interacts with land. I’d guess Cat 2 somewhere when the eye wall makes it onshore. The surge though will still be a horrible issue given the slow forward speed and large size. 

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36 minutes ago, NYCGreg said:

Yea, the eye is gone now.  It's not DOA, but I don't believe it will be close to a major hurricane by the time it even reaches land.

And you are basing this on what??  The eye is just covered by overcast and I believe it's reorganizing. I'm not saying it's to going to jump to a cat 5 or even a 4 but it still has to traverse across the gulf stream and many models show it holding its own or even strengthen a bit. 

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48 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It won't really matter, the effects will be the same.

I don't know what kind of hurricane people were expecting at 32-35N, it's holding pretty well. The outflow to the north and northeast looks fantastic. 

Truth. This is still a dangerous juggernaut but weenies let their passions get the best of them. 

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And you are basing this on what??  The eye is just covered by overcast and I believe it's reorganizing. I'm not saying it's to going to jump to a cat 5 or even a 4 but it still has to traverse across the gulf stream and many models show it holding its own or even strengthen a bit. 

The gulf stream affect tends to be greatly exaggerated throughout history. If I were a betting man I would bet continued weakening until landfall. I wonder why the models continue to mishandle the intensity in this final approach ?


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3 minutes ago, LVLion77 said:


The gulf stream affect tends to be greatly exaggerated throughout history. If I were a betting man I would bet continued weakening until landfall. I wonder why the models continue to mishandle the intensity in this final approach ?


.

I see your point...by the tine it reaches the Gulf Stream it’s already interacting with land somewhat...even if the water was 35C would it make a difference?  Not sure.  Someone here knows this answer.  

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Was not expecting the strong sheared look.  A week ago Florence rapidly deepened to a cat4 in a much worse environment. 

Models still really aren't that good at predicting how shear will effect a system.  If this keeps up, it will look like Irene at landfall  945mb Cat1.

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1 minute ago, Amped said:

Was not expecting the strong sheared look.  A week ago Florence rapidly deepened to a cat4 in a much worse environment. 

Models still really aren't that good at predicting how shear will effect a system.  If this keeps up, it will look like Irene at landfall  945mb Cat1.

strong major hurricanes just don't last above 30 latitude. I've seen the same thing happen many times. It's rare 

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2 minutes ago, Amped said:

Was not expecting the strong sheared look.  A week ago Florence rapidly deepened to a cat4 in a much worse environment. 

Models still really aren't that good at predicting how shear will effect a system.  If this keeps up, it will look like Irene at landfall  945mb Cat1.

There wasn’t supposed to be any shear when it came into this area(at least not any that would disrupt the system at least), conditions looked very very good for strengthening/or at least maintaining it.  So the modeling a couple days ago didn’t even foresee this shear issue on the system.  

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

There wasn’t supposed to be any shear when it came into this area(at least not any that would disrupt the system at least), conditions looked very very good for strengthening/or at least maintaining it.  So the modeling a couple days ago didn’t even foresee this shear issue on the system.  

Is there that much shear out there?  Can’t be SSTs..so many factors to consider.  

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