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Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD


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5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yes, in this way Florence reminds me of Hurricane Ike (when he was in the Gulf of Mexico). Latent Heat Energy being converted into increasing area rather than pressure falls close to center. Ike was a strong cat 2 before it hit Texas but was comparable to a cat 4/5 in terms of storm surge/coastal flooding

This scenario if probably more costly in terms of damage than a tightly wound cat 4 or even 5.

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Mostly agree, though Florence hasn't suffered what Ike did -- a total inner core disruption when it passed over the Yucatan. It never really recovered from that. The surge on this one is going to be ridiculous because of the insane fetch, strength and duration. The radius of hurricane winds is getting a bit out of hand.

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8 minutes ago, hlcater said:

 

I dont think the eye is 60-70 miles wide. It may look like it is, but recon did a little loop inside the eyewall. Unless that wasn't what you were using to judge size. Does anyone have a vortex message?

Microwave imaging sure seems to look like its headed toward and eye that big.

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59 minutes ago, Justicebork said:

GFS says nice knowing you, Wilmington and Jacksonville; and you'll love the new New Bern and Kinston.

It finally starts meandering SW towards N Myrtle at 72.

Yeah the skill just isnt there for the models to get this stall/turn down to the mile....for a lot of us it will come down to now casting the center, if the center on the GFS was just 50-75 miles further NW before it stops it would be the difference for instance of you seeing gust to 40-50 versus gust to 70+ and that would greatly change up the power outages and damage from trees on homes situation inland and her wind field is liable to be rather large to begin with...vice versa though if it slows stalls 50-75 miles sooner then that would lessen the impact inland by a ton and even on the coast some as well, though the long duration fetch will still produce insane surges. 

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14 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

Florence has 100 TJ of kinetic energy now.

MTxr94d.png

For perspective, Katrina was about 120 TJ at landfall and Sandy was around 140 TJ. Florence is seemingly increasing wind radii and IKE is likely increasing with time. Max winds are likely to decrease on final approach but, like Katrina, the wall of water is built up and the coastal bites will magnify it. Another comparison, the peak surge for Hugo 1989 was just over 20 feet. 

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33 minutes ago, hlcater said:

 

I dont think the eye is 60-70 miles wide. It may look like it is, but recon did a little loop inside the eyewall. Unless that wasn't what you were using to judge size. Does anyone have a vortex message?

Ah, you're right, didn't see the loop. My bad for not double checking -- 25-30 looks about right based on the most recent pass.

Inner eyewall looks like it is gone finally. Still multiple wind maxes though.

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30 minutes ago, f2tornado said:

For perspective, Katrina was about 120 TJ at landfall and Sandy was around 140 TJ. Florence is seemingly increasing wind radii and IKE is likely increasing with time. Max winds are likely to decrease on final approach but, like Katrina, the wall of water is built up and the coastal bites will magnify it. Another comparison, the peak surge for Hugo 1989 was just over 20 feet. 

Hugo had an IKE just under 100TJ at landfall

ike-sandy.gif.9d8772599c7a920fb3669cbc60279dd0.gif

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4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Models are now tightly clustered, showing a very slow landfall around Cape Fear/Wilmington.

The IR loop shows Florence's core continuing to slowly deteriorate at the moment.  The eye is now losing its shape.  The southerly shear is getting to it.

Euro never fully goes over land. Goes back over water and slowly crawls along the coast.

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1 hour ago, f2tornado said:

For perspective, Katrina was about 120 TJ at landfall and Sandy was around 140 TJ. Florence is seemingly increasing wind radii and IKE is likely increasing with time. 

Is this correct regarding the intensity of 'superstorm' Sandy, because other sources, including NOAA, give the kinetic energy including TS as topping out at 300+ terajoules

http://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/hwind/timeseries/IkeTimeSeries.html

because of the massive size of 'superstorm' Sandy. What's the reason for the discrepancy with the 140TJ figure, maybe because there could be differing definitions of kinetic energy

EDIT: Or, alternatively, talking about the kinetic energy 'at landfall' of Sandy as having been in Cuba... which is true but misleading because of the increased size after heading out into the Atlantic 

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Euro pretty consistent with 00Z - makes landfall actually, on Cape Fear around 10 am Friday, then scrapes along the SC coast down to Charleston over the next 48 hours.  Brutal for the coastline if this verifies.  

Edit: after taking a 48 hour ride SW right along the coast, impacting Myrtle Beach and then coming ashore again right on top of Charleston as a likely cat 1/2 storm, Florence then goes on an inland run towards Augusta, GA, then Asheville.  It's nearly identical to the 12Z GFS.  

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_3.png

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_5.png

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7 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Euro pretty consistent with 00Z - makes landfall actually, on Cape Fear around 10 am Friday, then scrapes along the SC coast down to Charleston over the next 48 hours.  Brutal for the coastline if this verifies.  

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_3.png

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_5.png

That would be over 48 hours straight of hurricane force winds in many places.... ughh that is terrible!

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21 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

New advisory out. Cat 3 now. 125mph winds and 948mb. Seems like this has a mind of it's own. It strengthened rapidly a day early. Nhc keeps forecasting an increase but it held steady and now weakened. Regardless storm surge and flooding will be extreme with this

Its peaked....been saying that for awhile now.

Not that that means much in the grand scheme of things...

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its peaked....been saying that for awhile now.

Not that that means much in the grand scheme of things...

I still have some concerns it could intensity tonight and tomorrow once that SW shear nose moves out and it goes over the Gulf Stream.  There was also less dry air visible on the WV sat when I looked this morning as it continued further west 

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

I still have some concerns it could intensity tonight and tomorrow once that SW shear nose moves out and it goes over the Gulf Stream.  There was also less dry air visible on the WV sat when I looked this morning as it continued further west 

Yes, there is still a small window.. you are correct.

We will see.

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26 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Euro pretty consistent with 00Z - makes landfall actually, on Cape Fear around 10 am Friday, then scrapes along the SC coast down to Charleston over the next 48 hours.  Brutal for the coastline if this verifies.  

Edit: after taking a 48 hour ride SW right along the coast, impacting Myrtle Beach and then coming ashore again right on top of Charleston as a likely cat 1/2 storm, Florence then goes on an inland run towards Augusta, GA, then Asheville.  It's nearly identical to the 12Z GFS.  

 

 

Pretty amazing consistency in track through landfall on NC, then the slow crawl to Charleston, then inland to Atlanta then Asheville for the Euro, UK and GFS.  After days of huge discrepancies after landfall, I'm not sure whether to believe it.  And the CMC is the same through about Charleston (then drifts down to Jacksonville as a weak looking TS).  

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26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its peaked....been saying that for awhile now.

Not that that means much in the grand scheme of things...

I honestly thought we could see some strengthening again but seems drier air around the storm and a somewhat disorganized inner core have kept this from happening. Seems like ever since that ewrc it just hasn't recovered well. Plus this is such a large storm so it's energy is being spread over a large area instead of focused at the core

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