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Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD


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Just now, OSUmetstud said:

There's always a bit of parallax error on the SAT overlays. 

I know where the other data is, but I also didn't think a 3mb increase in pressure from one pass to the next made sense, especially given current IR presentation.

Perhaps this is the start of another expansion in the wind field, thus a temporary relaxation in the pressure gradient. 

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12 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Winds generating the majority of the damage diminished over the last 48hrs when this stall/meandering solution became predominant.  It's shifted to a catastrophic surge/flooding storm.  And by no means should the winds be ignored.  A Cat 3 storm will cause severe damage.  Places in NC/SC will see 12-24"+ of rain with no where for that to drain for a several days.  Not good.

Agree 100 percent. I know what Anthony meant, but it was poorly articulated.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

I know where the other data is, but I also didn't think a 3mb increase in pressure from one pass to the next made sense, especially given current IR presentation.

Perhaps this is the start of another expansion in the wind field, thus a temporary relaxation in the pressure gradient. 

Could just bit instrument error (on the first or second dropsonde) I'm not sure what the standard accuracy is. 

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5 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

This storm loves its ERCs. The outer eyewall in the last MIMIC image is massive. That thing has to be like 50-60 miles wide. We could have a giant truck tire by the end of the day or tonight.

The surge potential is massive already... additional ERC's is just going to make it even more dangerous and obviously will see greater wind expansion for both TS and Hurricane force.

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5 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

This storm loves its ERCs. The outer eyewall in the last MIMIC image is massive. That thing has to be like 50-60 miles wide. We could have a giant truck tire by the end of the day or tonight.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/MESO_band.php?sat=G16&lat=30N&lon=71W&band=08&length=180

great view from the water vapor loop here just to see how much it has expanded over a few hours ....

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7 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

This storm loves its ERCs. The outer eyewall in the last MIMIC image is massive. That thing has to be like 50-60 miles wide. We could have a giant truck tire by the end of the day or tonight.

seriously, i feel like its undergoing nonstop ERCs for the last 2 days already. She's clearly been bulking up for the big hit. :rambo:

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There’s also a syntopic scale gradient wind threat up into the  Mid Atlantic due to Florence’s large circulation and 1028 mb HP over ME, causing persistent onshore flow which will also likely produce coastal flooding and heavy rain well away from the center—Eastern VA, Eastern MD, Eastern NC and DE all appear at risk in this regard.

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8 minutes ago, Cooper08 said:

What’s up with this crankyweatherguy? Is he legit or just always cranky and tries to play the contrarian side? Thanks

 

1 minute ago, Gravity Wave said:

He's very knowledgeable and good to follow as things are developing in real time but I think his forecasts do have a bit of a contrarian streak.

banter thread please

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

The saving grace will be if the storm stalls just offshore and weakens as it moves southwest.

Perhaps Snow88 is taking the perspective of North Carolina Piedmont and upstate folks (like myself) that will likely be spared Hurricane Fran-like effects. Latest forecasted storm track however would savage the coast...with catastrophic consequences.

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I can't help but draw some similarities to Hurricane Ike back in 2008. Don't get me wrong, it's a totally different setup and situation. But in regards to the EWRC, after Ike went through Cuba, he grew enormously and kept undergoing EWRCs seemingly more interested in growing in size rather than focusing on his windspeed. Hence why we wound up with a Cat 2 hurricane with Cat 4-5 storm surge. Florence definitely seems more interested in growing its wind field rather than it's speed, which means we are looking at some scary storm surge potential. 

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In the 11 a.m. NHC discussion:
The shortwave trough over the southern Plains seen in water vapor
imagery could end up being a significant factor as it rounds the
narrow ridge over the Tennessee Valley and is expected to erode the
ridge along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast on days 3-5. At this time,
little change has been made to the NHC track forecast, which remains
very close to the aforementioned consensus aids through 72 hours.

Would this mean a possible north or NW adjustment of the tracks for days 3-5?  Just looking for some explanation as to what the result of the trough eroding the ridge would have.

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1 minute ago, ragtop50 said:

In the 11 a.m. NHC discussion:
The shortwave trough over the southern Plains seen in water vapor
imagery could end up being a significant factor as it rounds the
narrow ridge over the Tennessee Valley and is expected to erode the
ridge along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast on days 3-5. At this time,
little change has been made to the NHC track forecast, which remains
very close to the aforementioned consensus aids through 72 hours.

Would this mean a possible north or NW adjustment of the tracks for days 3-5?  Just looking for some explanation as to what the result of the trough eroding the ridge would have.

I believe they are referring to the possibility of the southern portion of the ridge that blocks Flo's western/SW progression to be eroded, allowing a path into SC/GA a la what the Euro shows.

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