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Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD


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12 minutes ago, SouthernVAwx said:

Could anyone provide some insight as to what the big change was that resulted in most models not being able to bring the storm inland? I know steering currents will be weak if even present, but how would it move the storm south then in? Very weird modeled setup indeed.

Read the thread, big man ridge. Can’t shove the little circular blue into the monster red umbrella. Red wins, blocks the little blue’s path.

ecmwf_z500a_atl_3.png

 

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7 minutes ago, SouthernVAwx said:

Could anyone provide some insight as to what the big change was that resulted in most models not being able to bring the storm inland? I know steering currents will be weak if even present, but how would it move the storm south then in? Very weird modeled setup indeed.

I wouldn’t say that’s set in stone yet. It’s going to take a while to slow a storm of that intensity down. And that’s probably a good part of why that wacky turn is not reflected in the NHC forecast. They also cannot windshield wipe with each model run. Florence is going to create its own upper atmosphere environment. It’s extremely rare for a storm of that magnitude to turn SW in the tropics let alone the mid latitudes. Personally I just don’t buy it and I would stick with a landfall around Wilmington 

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The GFS 18Z model looks like the cartoon physics of a bouncy-ball hitting North Carolina and rebounding onto South Carolina. Or as if calculated to be the most insulting and disastrous path for South Carolinans who had thought they would be spared. Intuitively looking at that track people would say "that's absurd", but I guess there are some unusually complex systems besides the cyclone, affecting this one  

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12 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I wouldn’t say that’s set in stone yet. It’s going to take a while to slow a storm of that intensity down. And that’s probably a good part of why that wacky turn is not reflected in the NHC forecast. They also cannot windshield wipe with each model run. Florence is going to create its own upper atmosphere environment. It’s extremely rare for a storm of that magnitude to turn SW in the tropics let alone the mid latitudes. Personally I just don’t buy it and I would stick with a landfall around Wilmington 

Rare yes. But it's not uncommon for hurricanes to do loops off the ec. Most of the time it's just way off shore. My guess is models see a weakness in the ridge to bring it nw and as the trough deepens out west it strengthens the ridge and pulls it back.

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3 minutes ago, PressureDrop2017 said:

The GFS 18Z model looks like the cartoon physics of a bouncy-ball hitting North Carolina and rebounding onto South Carolina. Or as if calculated to be the most insulting and disastrous path for South Carolinans who had thought they would be spared. Intuitively looking at that track people would say "that's absurd", but I guess there are some unusually complex systems besides the cyclone, affecting this one  

Look at the 12Z Euro very similar. Except the Euro take it SW then landfall near the GA/SC border then takes it WNW to north of Atlanta. 

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11 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Strong convection in the southern band. Even looks like it is creating a moat of subsidence outside SW portion of the eyewall. Even though Florence has a decent-sized eye, don't be surprised at another ERC cycle and an even larger eye. The current eye also does look to be contracting a bit.a016647ae6c9906a9331e7d6831eca9e.jpg

Maybe I live under a rock but this storm is the first time I have ever seen this phenomenon, occurred at one point last evening.

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26 minutes ago, todayisagoodday said:

Is it possible to show what the temperatures are for the gulf stream as a background to Florence traversing over as a gif? 

Yes. All 3 operational cyclone models do this. You'll find the coupled SST products at the following links.

HWRF: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/HWRF/

HMON: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/HMON/

COAMPS: https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/web/tc

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11 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Strong convection in the southern band. Even looks like it is creating a moat of subsidence outside SW portion of the eyewall. Even though Florence has a decent-sized eye, don't be surprised at another ERC cycle and an even larger eye. The current eye also does look to be contracting a bit.a016647ae6c9906a9331e7d6831eca9e.jpg

I think we may be seeing some dry air issues. There really isn’t anything screaming weakening right now. Outflow looks good so shear is light and ocean temps are steadily warming. 

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6 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

It's pretty hard to tell what's going on with core dynamics from an IR satellite. This pass was from like an hour ago:

 

Microwave1.jpg

Bad news if that inner stuff goes away and the new eye consolidates to the diameter of that moat. That would certainly make it harder to have top end wind speeds but would massively enlarge the area that could get eyewall. And that might really matter if it stalls offshore like this afternoon’s global suggest may happen. 

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23 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Strong convection in the southern band. Even looks like it is creating a moat of subsidence outside SW portion of the eyewall. Even though Florence has a decent-sized eye, don't be surprised at another ERC cycle and an even larger eye. The current eye also does look to be contracting a bit.a016647ae6c9906a9331e7d6831eca9e.jpg

What exactly is a moat in a hurricane?

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What exactly is a moat in a hurricane?

 

We use "moat" to describe the area of subsidence that occurs due to an outer rain band intensifying to the point of forming an outer concentric ring of convection or "outer eyewall". This isn't quite there yet based on earlier microwave, however, clearly there is a strong outer band right now causing that subsidence and it could lead to concentric walls if it continues to organize.

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13 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Bad news if that inner stuff goes away and the new eye consolidates to the diameter of that moat. That would certainly make it harder to have top end wind speeds but would massively enlarge the area that could get eyewall. And that might really matter if it stalls offshore like this afternoon’s global suggest may happen. 

That outer ring doesn’t really look like an OEW to me. Too pulsy in nature. 

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