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Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD


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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

one run outcome is not a trend, nor can one say its a the start of a trend. 

 

Never said it was. Just gives credence to several other models who have shown this type of stall just offshore and then drift south. Euro is not the end all be all model that some here and other places think it is.

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Anytime a stall is expected or modeled the system tends to do so further off the coast than expected.  It’s still too early at this point to know if the stall will occur, but if 24-36 hours our from landfall it’s becoming a consensus forecast you can bet it’ll do so a good 30-40 miles plus off the coast which will likely keep the eyewall off shore.  This is due to the tendency for hurricanes to attempt the path of least resistance.  Even when they’re chugging along at 20kts they often jog right for a bit at the end.  Depending how long the stall lasts will determine what strength it is when and if it finally comes ashore.  If it takes a more south track and stalls off MYR it’s much more risky this is still a 3 when it backs in 

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Just now, ROOSTA said:

Intensity you know is the last feature, parameter to be forecast correctly.  Gulf stream waters around 90F are pretty deep and close to the coast. It's an unknown so leave at that.     

The issue with a slowing/stalling hurricane is going to be upwelling, plus the water depth gets shallower closer to the coast. Major hurricanes have been known to have sometimes wild fluctuations in intensity (ERC, as one example), but it's hard to see this thing strengthening much, if at all, beyond Wednesday.

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Just now, ag3 said:

 

Never said it was. Just gives credence to several other models who have shown this type of stall just offshore and then drift south.

I understand that, but just yesterday people were tossing the GFS run that did the exact same thing the Euro did. So which is it? The Euro yesterday, or the GFS today? 

The ridge is the big player here -- and I honestly think up until it gets to the coast, those details, the slowing down/strength/stall/where it goes, will literally be worked out last minute. 

People need to be careful making definitive statements. 

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3 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

Intensity you know is the last feature, parameter to be forecast correctly.  Gulf stream waters around 90F are pretty deep and close to the coast. It's an unknown so leave at that.     

Yea, we don't know. Revisit...I feel strongly that it will be weakening upon approach given a stall scenario due to upwelling/potential shear increase, but certainly other aspects could be every bit as damaging.

We'll see.

 

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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

I understand that, but just yesterday people were tossing the GFS run that did the exact same thing the Euro did. So which is it? The Euro yesterday, or the GFS today? 

The ridge is the big player here -- and I honestly think up until it gets to the coast, those details, the slowing down/strength/stall/where it goes, will literally be worked out last minute. 

People need to be careful making definitive statements. 

Agree. And it's not just the GFS that has shown the stall and drift south. Many others models have as well.

 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, we don't know. Revisit...I feel strongly that it will be weakening upon approach given a stall scenario due to upwelling/potential shear increase, but certainly other aspects could be every bit as damaging.

We'll see.

 

Agree. I think if it suddenly stalls like that, the western eyewall would detereorate rapidly from land friction, keeping the heaviest winds offshore or immediately on the shoreline. But a stall like this, would create catastrophic flooding like Harvey.

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One has to remember this is a BIG hurricane and whether or not it's a 2 or 3 or whatever, the flooding potential is going to be unreal. Thrown in hurricane force winds and you have a disaster. I certainly hope the stall scenario doesn't play out but it's looking more and more likely Florence is going to slow down significantly either and creep through NC/SC or just offshore. Either way, it's just not a good thing for millions of people in its path or in its radius, which include me. 

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3 minutes ago, ag3 said:

Agree. I think if it suddenly stalls like that, the western eyewall would detereorate rapidly from land friction, keeping the heaviest winds offshore or immediately on the shoreline. But a stall like this, would create catastrophic flooding like Harvey.

Typically in these situations you have a digging trough helping to wrap dry air into the circulation from the South, in this case, no trough, a lot less dry air.

gfs_midRH_us_12.png

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9 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

Disgusting especially if the eye barely manages to make it onshore. The coastal impacts are going to be extreme with most of those. 

It will be, but it will also be a blessing for interior NC/SC where they were showing 2-3 feet of rain this time yesterday. 

I am going to go out on a limb and say that if this blocking pattern sets up this strongly, I would expect Flo to weaken pretty significantly in the run-up to the coast, likely losing major hurricane status quickly.

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