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Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD


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11 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Maybe someone can help me understand this. I am looking at the steering layers and see a pretty clear path into eastern carolina - seems to be inline with where the majority of the models were yesterday. GFS moved away from there today and close to the Euro. Can anyone maybe point to something that would be driving it further south contrary to what it looks like in the steering layers of the atomosphere?

 

Steering flow isn't static.

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11 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Maybe someone can help me understand this. I am looking at the steering layers and see a pretty clear path into eastern carolina - seems to be inline with where the majority of the models were yesterday. GFS moved away from there today and close to the Euro. Can anyone maybe point to something that would be driving it further south contrary to what it looks like in the steering layers of the atomosphere? 

 

A stronger ridge over the Atlantic to the N/NE of Florence coupled with another ridge in the Great Lakes Region evolving into the OH Valley are the culprits to the further South and West trajectory. 

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23 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Maybe someone can help me understand this. I am looking at the steering layers and see a pretty clear path into eastern carolina - seems to be inline with where the majority of the models were yesterday. GFS moved away from there today and close to the Euro. Can anyone maybe point to something that would be driving it further south contrary to what it looks like in the steering layers of the atomosphere?

 

The ridge to the north is keeping the storm south. see the red area. the gfs had this weaker, and not as far west, in previous runs, thus it allowed Florence to come up the coast more. The ridge expands west as the run goes on, which causes the stall and the eventual inland movement of Florence. The Euro has had the same depiction. 

gfs_z500a_us_11.png

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12z euro looks disasterous in the way that it slows down dramatically right before making LF and looks to stall at the coast with most of its circulation on land. This is in line with most of the other guidance now. A dramatic slowdown in forward speed right before landfall is being reflected on all major guidance right now. This is concerning to say the least.

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ECMWF is a slow agonizing landfall between Wilmington and Jacksonville, NC., and a long-duration hurricane force wind event over shoreline. Florence would be weakening, but slowly until core got inland. Even if you don't get sustained major hurricane force for very long, 24-36 hrs straight of hurricane force winds is going to be devastating.

 

Edit: Fails to make landfall through 96. Just stalls near shore and then begins to drift SW.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

12z euro looks disasterous in the way that it slows down dramatically right before making LF and looks to stall at the coast with most of its circulation on land. This is in line with most of the other guidance now. A dramatic slowdown in forward speed right before landfall is being reflected on all major guidance right now. This is concerning to say the least.

Likely means a weaker LF, so there's that.

Def. no more than a cat 3.

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