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the ghost of leroy

Hurricane Flo Banter Thread-no fun allowed, no saying the storm isn’t that bad plz

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let's talk about whose posts are untrustworthy, wishcast for 12 inches of rain in new england, and confidently declare that bath water means 150 kts into wilmington ITT

that way the main thread can stay pure.

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Hurricane florence is clearly gonna smoke Baltimore by bombing out in the chesapeake bay near norfolk into a category 5 hurricane by making a b-line towards Baltimore.

Damage will be unprecedented. 

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Excellent piece of ground breaking information in from Phillip Klotzbach regarding Florence this evening. I just wanna say that we are so blessed to have people around that can share this kind of revolutionary insight with us.

ee1b476cf67c189fbeeed220799295eb.png

(posted as an image as tweet wouldn't embed properly.)

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Excellent piece of ground breaking information in from Phillip Klotzbach regarding Florence this evening. I just wanna say that we are so blessed to have people around that can share this kind of revolutionary insight with us.
ee1b476cf67c189fbeeed220799295eb.png&key=dd517bf895ea8a05b2dadb9bdc6e1249711838591bbfd79b44e3d9038d4a2c41
(posted as an image as tweet wouldn't embed properly.)


To be fair, he's responding to person's question on Twitter. I'm surprised he didn't begin by explaining what a surface low is...
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Just now, Windspeed said:

 


To be fair, he's responding to person's question on Twitter. I'm surprised he didn't begin by explaining what a surface low is...

 

Huh, person must've deleted the question. But that would make sense. I found it humorous/odd to see something so basic coming from that guy.

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7 hours ago, hlcater said:

Huh, person must've deleted the question. But that would make sense. I found it humorous/odd to see something so basic coming from that guy.

During Lane the local met out in Hawaii spent hours explaining over and over again what wind shear is and how it destroys hurricanes as if nobody had ever heard the term before. Certainly if you’ve ever watched a tropical forecast discussion, it’s mentionrd every time.

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    Yesterday I got absolutely fed up with certain posters in the Mid-Atlantic forum who, in addition to talking about the dynamics of the developing storm and its track, seem to take pleasure in and even root for the type of destruction such a major hurricane could impose. I saw multiple posts from others politely decrying that sort of comment. I don't care if someone has 10,000 posts in this forum and possesses great knowledge, because for me callously ignoring the destruction and disruptions which may await many people in the next week along the east coast by enthusing over a major strike, makes one look like a teenager at best, at worst an idiot who lives in a suburban condo far from the danger zone. 

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Y'all know what really gets me? When people give me (or someone else) crap for pointing out trends in a particular model that they don't like. God forbid I say anything about a more northerly track for Florence...

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1 hour ago, jpeters3 said:


I just get frustrated when people make comments about models being "wrong" or "unphysical."  The dynamical cores of numerical models are built from the physical equations that govern the atmosphere.  Yes each model had their own bias and what not when it comes to cumulus physics and microphysics, but they generally don't do unphysical things when it comes to large scale flow patterns because they are strictly governed by realistic equations.  When I say "unphysical," I'm talking about making a hurricane do things that don't obey the laws of physics.  For instance, a model won't simply erroneously steer a hurricane northward when high pressure should be blocking the hurricane, or fail to steer the hurricane northward when there is a sensible forcing to make the northward turn happen.  If a model is doing something a certain way in this context, there is a physically sensible reason.  Weenies who question the physicality of a model solution often don't have sufficient information to be making those sorts of statements because the model "knows" the atmosphere's governing equations, and how these equations lead to a forecast solution, better than a person.


Now, a forecast solution can certainly be "wrong" in terms of a prediction of what will happen, but the forecast solution still (for all intensive purposes) obeys the laws of physics just as well as another more accurate forecast solution.

An hour later, GFS takes a 915mb low into Nova Scotia

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14 minutes ago, Amped said:

 

An hour later, GFS takes a 915mb low into Nova Scotia

 

A bit ironic that the GFS did actually give a somewhat outlandish solution an hour after I made that post.

This is indeed probably an outlandishly low prediction because of unphysical things going on in the cumulus parameterization scheme.  My gripe is mainly when weenies look at a surface pressure map and can't understand why a TC moves in a particular direction, and start arguing that the model is doing something unrealistic.  On the other hand, the scenario where a very climatologically intense cyclone makes landfall on Novia Scotia is not at all unreasonable given the very high SSTs off the coast, and there comparatively cool air introduced by the trough that descends out of Canada.  Quite the recipe for volatile baroclinic instability.

 

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Really???? My neighborhood had a prep meeting.  Many are northern people who have transplanted from NY and such. None of them are taking this seriously.  And the HOA head said have only 2-3 days of supply.  I stopped the meeting.   I pulled up this site and showed people what could happen.   I was told to leave and stop making people panic.  SMH. We are right next to ILM.   Only 4 people listened to me. We went to the store and many people are saying it’s no big deal.   Not gonna do anything blah blah blah.   Not good.  

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18z GFS at 0 hours the same as the 12z at 6 hours. Interesting trend.

Wow, people getting so serious that i posted in the wrong thread by accident. Calm down and stop taking the bait.

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2 minutes ago, Jakkel138 said:

18z GFS at 0 hours the same as the 12z at 6 hours. Interesting trend.

Wow, people getting so serious that i posted in the wrong thread by accident. Calm down and stop taking the bait.

you're like 14, huh?

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Just now, the ghost of leroy said:

you're like 14, huh?

No, I'm middle aged. Sorry if i acted like i was 14 years old, sometimes people slip. I'll post better to the best of my ability, and if i can't, i'll just read and not post.

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5 hours ago, baldereagle said:

    Yesterday I got absolutely fed up with certain posters in the Mid-Atlantic forum who, in addition to talking about the dynamics of the developing storm and its track, seem to take pleasure in and even root for the type of destruction such a major hurricane could impose. I saw multiple posts from others politely decrying that sort of comment. I don't care if someone has 10,000 posts in this forum and possesses great knowledge, because for me callously ignoring the destruction and disruptions which may await many people in the next week along the east coast by enthusing over a major strike, makes one look like a teenager at best, at worst an idiot who lives in a suburban condo far from the danger zone. 

This.  I'm right in between Wilmington and Carolina Beach.  Fairly terrified at this point.  I bought a bunch of stuff yesterday in preparation, but I'm fairly sure it was a waste as I think it's looking a better and better idea to simply run.  

I'm supposed to go out of town on Wednesday for some training... to Roanoke, VA.  This storm is stalking me. 

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15 minutes ago, Squatchito said:

This.  I'm right in between Wilmington and Carolina Beach.  Fairly terrified at this point.  I bought a bunch of stuff yesterday in preparation, but I'm fairly sure it was a waste as I think it's looking a better and better idea to simply run.  

I'm supposed to go out of town on Wednesday for some training... to Roanoke, VA.  This storm is stalking me. 

I hate posters like that.  They seem to be gloating on the misfortune of others.  You can't stand and ride this out.  Evacuating is the only way to go if this continues the current path.  If so the training in Roanoke will probably be canceled or they won't expect you to be there under the circumstance.  Don't wait until I 95 or other routes become parking lots.  Keep in touch with your loved ones and I will pray for you. 

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I'd lean a little more toward SC landfall than NC at this point.  Just have a feeling the northwest turn may be a bit later/not as pronounced.  Would be very concerned in a place like Myrtle Beach.

Disclaimer:  don't use me for planning purposes

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I hope everyone in the Carolinas up to VA is taking this seriously. There's a legit possibly of widespread 2'+ totals, maybe even pushing 30-35"+ if it stalls out like this, this doesn't even account for the storm surge flooding near the coast.

I think this will be a larger than normal system and drive a larger, more widespread surge to many areas.

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Surprised that CNN hasn’t plastered the NHC forecast track on their homepage yet... tomorrow maybe? Not a sh*t ton of coverage by MSM so far really, despite that an intense major hurricane is going to be barreling toward the “prized” east coast. 

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