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the ghost of leroy

Hurricane Flo Banter Thread-no fun allowed, no saying the storm isn’t that bad plz

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47 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

i see more of a snake.  like the serpent in genesis. i highlighted it in white for you.

I'm not getting snake at all. More of a "furmaid." Also from genesis.

20180912_034536.jpg

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My folks live in Sunset Beach NC, 2 miles inland in a 12 year old home golf,course community.  Their lot is 28 feet above sea level.   They have refused to leave as have many of their neighbors.  I'm at my wits end and this latest run of the euro looks like the nightmare scenario for them.  My sisters and I have about half a day to try and convince them, scare them, do whatever we can to get them to gtfo.

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1 hour ago, buckeye said:

My folks live in Sunset Beach NC, 2 miles inland in a 12 year old home golf,course community.  Their lot is 28 feet above sea level.   They have refused to leave as have many of their neighbors.  I'm at my wits end and this latest run of the euro looks like the nightmare scenario for them.  My sisters and I have about half a day to try and convince them, scare them, do whatever we can to get them to gtfo.

Maybe each of you try calling and hamming up a really dramatic goodbye, as if you know you'll never see them again. Crying could only help your case.

I know your situation. If my dad was there, he wouldn't leave either. Once, he stuck out a wildfire, standing on the roof with a garden hose as the yard burned around him.

But you can't hose a hurricane. Can't do anything except get out of its way.

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1 hour ago, buckeye said:

My folks live in Sunset Beach NC, 2 miles inland in a 12 year old home golf,course community.  Their lot is 28 feet above sea level.   They have refused to leave as have many of their neighbors.  I'm at my wits end and this latest run of the euro looks like the nightmare scenario for them.  My sisters and I have about half a day to try and convince them, scare them, do whatever we can to get them to gtfo.

These storms are more hype then furry typically. They will be fine. The winds reported  by noaa are so high up in the atmosphere they rarely reach ground level. The surge will have minimal impact at their location.

i would leave just due to the likelihood losing electricity for an extended time.

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49 minutes ago, Animal said:

These storms are more hype then furry typically. They will be fine. The winds reported  by noaa are so high up in the atmosphere they rarely reach ground level. The surge will have minimal impact at their location.

i would leave just due to the likelihood losing electricity for an extended time.

Ugh, this is the thinking mentality of many in these areas, then they scream why aren’t you saving me and risking your life when they are trapped putting more folks in harms way.  Society has somehow been put off by inconveniences anymore, not sure why that has changed but it appears to get worse with each passing year.

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4 minutes ago, NTXYankee said:

Ugh, this is the thinking mentality of many in these areas, then they scream why aren’t you saving me and risking your life when they are trapped putting more folks in harms way.  Society has somehow been put off by inconveniences anymore, not sure why that has changed but it appears to get worse with each passing year.

Don’t be so dramatic.

i would be shocked if scared son’s parents home is wiped out.

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3 hours ago, Keelala said:

I'm not getting snake at all. More of a "furmaid." Also from genesis.

20180912_034536.jpg

Fidofish.  Jonger sells these out of a truck.  Farm raised tho and not wild caught.

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16 minutes ago, Animal said:

Don’t be so dramatic.

i would be shocked if scared son’s parents home is wiped out.

Pretty sure this "scared son" is not concerned with the house being wiped out or injury or death as a direct result of the hurricane itself.   The issue is they are both close to 80 yrs old and I believe they have no concept of the prolonged hardship they will face in the weeks following the storm.    

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A category 2 is bad but not "catastrophic". People need to tone it down a bit. This isn't 2 days ago where the Euro had it straight into NC as a category 4.

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10 minutes ago, ag3 said:

A category 2 is bad but not "catastrophic". People need to tone it down a bit. This isn't 2 days ago where the Euro had it straight into NC as a category 4.

You obviously don't understand how vulnerable Eastern NC is with these storms. Matthew hit as a Cat 1 and killed 26 people in NC and $1.5 billion in damages. 

If even half of the total rain projections verify, this could end up catastrophic for SE NC and SC.

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26 minutes ago, ag3 said:

A category 2 is bad but not "catastrophic". People need to tone it down a bit. This isn't 2 days ago where the Euro had it straight into NC as a category 4.

The catastrophic part is going to be multiple consecutive tide cycles with sustained onshore flow as well as stalled bands of extreme rainfall rates causing catastrophic fresh water flooding. The risk for severe wind damage is lessened by the stall scenario but the surge and fresh water flooding is significantly enhanced. The latter two tend to cause more risk to life and property compared with the former.

 

Thus I think catastrophic is definitely warranted even if the landfall strength is lessened. It would probably be better if the storm just charged ashore and wound itself down quickly. As it stands it will die a slow death and maintain strength to some degree while it is still over water.

 

 

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22 minutes ago, ag3 said:

A category 2 is bad but not "catastrophic". People need to tone it down a bit. This isn't 2 days ago where the Euro had it straight into NC as a category 4.

Why should people tone it down? 

With storms like these, it's better to get ready for the worst and hope for the best. I don't mind the hype if it gets people to take this seriously.

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24 minutes ago, ag3 said:

A category 2 is bad but not "catastrophic". People need to tone it down a bit. This isn't 2 days ago where the Euro had it straight into NC as a category 4.

Agree but the flooding will still be very bad

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33 minutes ago, ag3 said:

A category 2 is bad but not "catastrophic". People need to tone it down a bit. This isn't 2 days ago where the Euro had it straight into NC as a category 4.

Katrina was “only” a decaying cat 3. 

 

This is dangerous thinking. 

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1 minute ago, KPITSnow said:

Katrina was “only” a decaying cat 3. 

 

This is dangerous thinking. 

Katrina made full direct landfall at a good forward speed.

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1 minute ago, ag3 said:

Katrina made full direct landfall at a good forward speed.

And this is just going to sit and spin and plow water into the coast over a long period time which could potentially cause large issues. It is also a large storm with a big wind field and that can exasperate issues as well.

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I don't know why everyone is so convinced that this is going to weaken significantly before landfall. Shear really doesn't increase until the center is already onshore. 

You will have some upwelling, but it's mid September, not November.

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9 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

And this is just going to sit and spin and plow water into the coast over a long period time which could potentially cause large issues. It is also a large storm with a big wind field and that can exasperate issues as well.

Yes, I get it, but its not nearly as bad as it looked 2 days ago when the Euro and most models had it maintaining forward direction and a direct cat 3-4 landfall that sliced through the state of NC.

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

I don't know why everyone is so convinced that this is going to weaken significantly before landfall. Shear really doesn't increase until the center is already onshore. 

You will have some upwelling, but it's mid September, not November.

Every single EPS member and most modeling weakens it to a cat 1-2 by landfall.

 

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Just now, ag3 said:

Every single EPS member and most modeling weakens it to a cat 1-2 by landfall.

 

I take that back. The 6z Rgem brings it fully ashore and into interior NC. That would be the one exception.

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1 minute ago, ag3 said:

Yes, I get it, but its not nearly as bad as it looked 2 days ago when the Euro and most models had it maintaining forward direction and a direct cat 3-4 landfall that sliced through the state of NC.

 

36 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

The catastrophic part is going to be multiple consecutive tide cycles with sustained onshore flow as well as stalled bands of extreme rainfall rates causing catastrophic fresh water flooding. The risk for severe wind damage is lessened by the stall scenario but the surge and fresh water flooding is significantly enhanced. The latter two tend to cause more risk to life and property compared with the former.

 

Thus I think catastrophic is definitely warranted even if the landfall strength is lessened. It would probably be better if the storm just charged ashore and wound itself down quickly. As it stands it will die a slow death and maintain strength to some degree while it is still over water.

 

 

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Just now, ag3 said:

Yes, I get it, but its not nearly as bad as it looked 2 days ago when the Euro and most models had it maintaining forward direction and a direct cat 3-4 landfall that sliced through the state of NC.

Whatever weakening occurs should largely be mitigated by the expansiveness of the wind field in terms of storm surge.

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Just now, ag3 said:

Every single EPS member and most modeling weakens it to a cat 1-2 by landfall.

 

And we're trusting ensembles for intensity forecasts now? :lol:

Modeled intensity forecasts are historically inaccurate, and environmental conditions ahead are about the best you'll ever see in this region.

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2 minutes ago, ag3 said:

I take that back. The 6z Rgem brings it fully ashore and into interior NC. That would be the one exception.

LOL for even mentioning the RGEM in a tropical discussion. 

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33 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

You obviously don't understand how vulnerable Eastern NC is with these storms. Matthew hit as a Cat 1 and killed 26 people in NC and $1.5 billion in damages. 

If even half of the total rain projections verify, this could end up catastrophic for SE NC and SC.

You build a house on the ocean or bay, you expect this to happen. It’s nothing atypical to have a tropical storm or hurricane impacts these areas.

rivers/streams will flood for sure in the typical areas. Again if you live at the bottom of a hill or near rivers/streams expectation is it floods.

Recommendation is to avoid living in these areas if you are not expecting weather related problems at some point.

 

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The 06z HWRF is a cat 3 at landfall, and you have a ton of areas in the RFQ that will experience onshore hurricane force winds. That's going to push a lot of water in.

hwrf_mslp_wind_06L_16.png

hwrf_mslp_wind_06L_17.png

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