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the ghost of leroy

Hurricane Flo Banter Thread-no fun allowed, no saying the storm isn’t that bad plz

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3 minutes ago, Animal said:

You build a house on the ocean or bay, you expect this to happen. It’s nothing atypical to have a tropical storm or hurricane impacts these areas.

rivers/streams will flood for sure in the typical areas. Again if you live at the bottom of a hill or near rivers/streams expectation is it floods.

Recommendation is to avoid living in these areas if you are not expecting weather related problems at some point.

 

You do realize that nearly all of ENC is essentially just a large coastal pain, river basin, right?

 

Figure5.jpg

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I remember last year people downplaying Irma as it was heading towards Florida, and that storm killed 92 people In The US and did 50 billion in damage.

 

People need to stop downplaying every threat. I rather that everything be overhyped and overprepared than people blow it off and be under prepared.

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14 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

he is quite frankly the worst poster in the NY forum, so it doesn't surprise me his comment.....

He is the worst poster wherever he posts. 

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Can anyone help? I'm in a bit of a pickle. Supposed to be flying CLT> ATL > Paris Sat. Leave CLT 11am and leave ATL at 33pm. I am currently trying to cancel my CLT leg and drive down to ATL and leave for ATL on Friday night. Do you think that flight timing would also be in jeopardy? Now with it shifting further south idk if I should stay put in CLT. Not sure on the timing. 

 

Any ideas?

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The amount of wishcasting/model hugging that some people do never cease to amaze me. For those that actually do provide some wonderful insight and there are many of you, it's truly appreciated. 

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For the member concerned about parents who ignore the evacuation of Sunset Beach, this video is of Hurricane Fran conditions about 5 miles from their location. It would be prudent for them to prepare for something similar to Fran in windspeed, and possibly worse than Fran in flooding. North Myrtle Beach and vicinity appear at 1 hour 30 minutes, the URL should start the video at that time:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zq2dLAoQwDs#t=1h30m8s

To get them to realize the devastation that was caused by Hurricane Fran, and therefore not to take the risk about the uncertain track of Florence. The island portion of Sunset Beach is already under mandatory evacuation orders, the causeway is likely to be completely underwater like it was in Hurricane Matthew

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/weather/article106951087.html

and with water that high, it seems questionable whether the barrier-island offers much protection to the onshore part of Sunset Beach

 

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7 minutes ago, rjmusser said:

Can anyone help? I'm in a bit of a pickle. Supposed to be flying CLT> ATL > Paris Sat. Leave CLT 11am and leave ATL at 33pm. I am currently trying to cancel my CLT leg and drive down to ATL and leave for ATL on Friday night. Do you think that flight timing would also be in jeopardy? Now with it shifting further south idk if I should stay put in CLT. Not sure on the timing. 

 

Any ideas?

If it were me I def wouldn’t chance trying to get out of CLT. Southwest is looking to cancel flights ahead of the storm and CHS in Charleston is shut down after midnight tonight. I do believe however that ATL flight operations will be good to go still. 

My point is as the forecast becomes more evident to verification, airports in Raleigh, Charlotte etc will begin to cease operations. My buddy works for the FAA so he deals with this stuff all the time. 

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I really don't think folks like Snow88 understand the truly devastating impact a stalled meandering cat4/3/2 hurricane just off the coast of the Carolinas will mean for those folks.  This is truly unprecedented. 

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11 minutes ago, rjmusser said:

Can anyone help? I'm in a bit of a pickle. Supposed to be flying CLT> ATL > Paris Sat. Leave CLT 11am and leave ATL at 33pm. I am currently trying to cancel my CLT leg and drive down to ATL and leave for ATL on Friday night. Do you think that flight timing would also be in jeopardy? Now with it shifting further south idk if I should stay put in CLT. Not sure on the timing. 

 

Any ideas?

My first thought is to call the airline for the ATL-Paris leg and see if they are possibly going to cancel that flight. The shift further south is concerning. I would not try to fly CLT-ATL on Saturday, driving Friday would be a safer bet, but the roads might be packed.

I know Delta is offering rescheduling of flights out of CLT and Savannah but not ATL. I think that flight should be okay but they'll probably have to alter the route. Call your airline. Good luck!

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23 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

he is quite frankly the worst poster in the NY forum, so it doesn't surprise me his comment.....

 

17 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

He is the worst poster wherever he posts. 

2 losers

I'm not even close to being the worst poster . 

We are the best subforum on this forum

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5 hours ago, buckeye said:

My folks live in Sunset Beach NC, 2 miles inland in a 12 year old home golf,course community.  Their lot is 28 feet above sea level.   They have refused to leave as have many of their neighbors.  I'm at my wits end and this latest run of the euro looks like the nightmare scenario for them.  My sisters and I have about half a day to try and convince them, scare them, do whatever we can to get them to gtfo.

2 miles inland and 28 feet above sea level is not a bad place to be

as long as they have food & water supplies and no underlying health issues where the loss of power could harm them then it makes sense to stay.  

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Just now, hazwoper said:

LOL

over 35K posts and nearly everyone agrees you are the worst...that should tell you something

Lifelong weenie

I'm proud of that even though I have never won the weenie of the year.

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1 minute ago, csnavywx said:

This storm loves its ERCs. The outer eyewall in the last MIMIC image is massive. That thing has to be like 50-60 miles wide. We could have a giant truck tire by the end of the day or tonight.

Saved for posterity. So true lol.

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11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Lifelong weenie

I'm proud of that even though I have never won the weenie of the year.

Look, will the storm likely weaken as it slows down just off the coast?  Sure , most likely, but that doesn't diminish the effects, it just changes them.  When have you last seen a Cat 3 hurricane slow to a crawl and even stall just off the coast as some of the models are depicting (with several placing the eyewall on the the coast for multiple hours)?  This storm has the "potential" to be far more devastating then even a full on landfalling Cat 4 hurricane simply due to the shear amount of time the effects may be felt along such a large portion of the coastline.  Its going to be interesting regardless and certainly should not be downplayed.

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2 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

Look, will the storm likely weaken as it slows down just off the coast?  Sure , most likely, but that doesn't diminish the effects, it just changes them.  When have you last seen a Cat 3 hurricane slow to a crawl and even stall just off the coast as some of the models are depicting (with several placing the eyewall on the the coast for multiple hours)?  This storm has the "potential" to be far more devastating then even a full on landfalling Cat 4 hurricane simply due to the shear amount of time the effects may be felt along such a large portion of the coastline.  Its going to be interesting regardless and certainly should not be downplayed.

You are absolutely right

The flooding will still be very catastrophic and no one should take this storm lightly.

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I bet we see continued steady state or slight weakening in the short term with what looks like an ERC starting. Wouldn't be surprised to see the IR appearance start to degrade a bit.

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Hi guys, everyone in my area is not concerned about the storm, but I am. What do you guys think about my area of 30809, Evans GA. I am to trying prepare , but getting really worried 

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Hi guys, everyone in my area is not concerned about the storm, but I am. What do you guys think about my area of 30809, Evans GA. I am to trying prepare , but getting really worried 


Prepare for rain, that would be the biggest threat it tracks further inland and south. Could be very little, could be a lot more depending on track. Are you in a flood prone area that floods during heavy rain? If so, plan on being somewhere else just in case. If not, you should be fine. Follow the NHC closely. Have a plan. Don’t panic, be prepared and follow your local officials.


.

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Why is it that it is always the same couple of posters that try to downplay every Hurricane? 

 

In this case, I see no one calling for rapid intensification, but I see the same people that downplayed Irma and Harvey doing the same here.

 

I know that “wishcasting” a cat 5 into your house is annoying (and frankly I don’t understand it) but so are all the posts saying this is overhyped and will not be that bad. 

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On 9/10/2018 at 1:07 PM, oldnorthstate said:

So, I have a flight scheduled to land at RDU Thursday 4 AM.    How are my chances looking of that flight happening?

this flight has been cancelled.  are you f'n kidding me?

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15 minutes ago, oldnorthstate said:

this flight has been cancelled.  are you f'n kidding me?

On the bright side, at least you now know your chances.

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Welp, I’ll be riding this thing out in Wilmington which looks to get a pretty awful hit.  I’m in a hotel which is built to withstand the hurricane but I hope I have something to come home to. 

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2 hours ago, hazwoper said:

Look, will the storm likely weaken as it slows down just off the coast?  Sure , most likely, but that doesn't diminish the effects, it just changes them.  When have you last seen a Cat 3 hurricane slow to a crawl and even stall just off the coast as some of the models are depicting (with several placing the eyewall on the the coast for multiple hours)?  This storm has the "potential" to be far more devastating then even a full on landfalling Cat 4 hurricane simply due to the shear amount of time the effects may be felt along such a large portion of the coastline.  Its going to be interesting regardless and certainly should not be downplayed.

And the 12Z GFS would confirm my worst fears if true.... :(

 

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17 minutes ago, ILM2714 said:

Welp, I’ll be riding this thing out in Wilmington which looks to get a pretty awful hit.  I’m in a hotel which is built to withstand the hurricane but I hope I have something to come home to. 

My girl friend just left and is coming to stay here, her grandparents are staying in wilmington, one of which is on an oxygen tank and has no generator. They refuse to leave, personally I am very fearful for their lives.

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19 minutes ago, ILM2714 said:

Welp, I’ll be riding this thing out in Wilmington which looks to get a pretty awful hit.  I’m in a hotel which is built to withstand the hurricane but I hope I have something to come home to. 

Good luck.  It's a long duration awful hit, you may want to reconsider staying.  There's still time to leave.

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