Hoosier Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 So with Florence looking to jack up a good portion of coast, what do you guys think about whether so much development should be allowed so close to the water? Based on history, it is known that hurricanes come calling every so often. Obviously factors like location and shape of the coast affect the risk in any particular area, with some areas of the coast being more susceptible than others. Compare that to tornadoes in which you don't know exactly where they are going ahead of time, and even in the prime tornado region of the country, the average recurrence at any particular point location is something like once every several hundred or even 1,000+ years (there are always freak exceptions of the same house getting hit twice in 5 years or whatever). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 10, 2018 Author Share Posted September 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: So with Florence looking to jack up a good portion of coast, what do you guys think about whether so much development should be allowed so close to the water? of course it shouldn't be allowed. but this is america. money rules. NC state government agencies arent even allowed to study and make policy based upon sea level rise. that's the degree of insanity at play here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 15 minutes ago, Hoosier said: So with Florence looking to jack up a good portion of coast, what do you guys think about whether so much development should be allowed so close to the water? Based on history, it is known that hurricanes come calling every so often. Obviously factors like location and shape of the coast affect the risk in any particular area, with some areas of the coast being more susceptible than others. Compare that to tornadoes in which you don't know exactly where they are going ahead of time, and even in the prime tornado region of the country, the average recurrence at any particular point location is something like once every several hundred or even 1,000+ years (there are always freak exceptions of the same house getting hit twice in 5 years or whatever). Frankly allowed or not eventually it will become impractical if you want any form of insurance. Insurance companies will eventually drive the change but before it gets a real kick in the ass something truly catastrophic will have to happen... not some seasonal vacation home disappearing but beachfront Miami getting wiped out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 3 hurricanes in the Atlantic right now, any idea what ACE is to date? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 16 minutes ago, Tibet said: Frankly allowed or not eventually it will become impractical if you want any form of insurance. Insurance companies will eventually drive the change but before it gets a real kick in the ass something truly catastrophic will have to happen... not some seasonal vacation home disappearing but beachfront Miami getting wiped out. State Farm nearly went under after Andrew. As long as there is open land and people with $. The ins companies will take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 What a good guess for max winds in Raleigh Durham, sustained and gusts? The Euro 850MB winds are 70 to 85kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 10, 2018 Author Share Posted September 10, 2018 24 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said: What a good guess for max winds in Raleigh Durham, sustained and gusts? The Euro 850MB winds are 70 to 85kt. super to hypercane 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 10, 2018 Author Share Posted September 10, 2018 GFS landfall time is during the night time...bad for chasers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 32 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: super to hypercane Arse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 10, 2018 Author Share Posted September 10, 2018 44 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said: Arse. what are you? british? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keelala Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 I don't think my personal anecdotes belong in the main thread, so here you go. I've been watching Flo for about a week now, since I saw "tropical wave forming." No one believed me when I predicted it would hit the US. News sites even a few days ago were all don't worry, unprecedented, blah blah blah... I predicted SC landfall, turning north inland to soak NC and VA. I said it would be strong and slow and I said pinhole eye. Could be wrong, hope I'm wrong. I just moved to a heavily wooded area in VA and we've had 3" of rain already this weekend. Walmart was packed today and they were down to just a few cases of water. Cashier said after Irene some of my neighbors were without power for 9 days. If I lived in SC, I would already have a hotel room booked somewhere far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 10, 2018 Author Share Posted September 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Keelala said: I don't think my personal anecdotes belong in the main thread, so here you go. I've been watching Flo for about a week now, since I saw "tropical wave forming." No one believed me when I predicted it would hit the US. News sites even a few days ago were all don't worry, unprecedented, blah blah blah... I predicted SC landfall, turning north inland to soak NC and VA. I said it would be strong and slow and I said pinhole eye. Could be wrong, hope I'm wrong. I just moved to a heavily wooded area in VA and we've had 3" of rain already this weekend. Walmart was packed today and they were down to just a few cases of water. Cashier said after Irene some of my neighbors were without power for 9 days. If I lived in SC, I would already have a hotel room booked somewhere far away. there's good money to be made in predicting hurricanes. you can get a little ahead of the market. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 57 minutes ago, Keelala said: I don't think my personal anecdotes belong in the main thread, so here you go. I've been watching Flo for about a week now, since I saw "tropical wave forming." No one believed me when I predicted it would hit the US. News sites even a few days ago were all don't worry, unprecedented, blah blah blah... I predicted SC landfall, turning north inland to soak NC and VA. I said it would be strong and slow and I said pinhole eye. Could be wrong, hope I'm wrong. I just moved to a heavily wooded area in VA and we've had 3" of rain already this weekend. Walmart was packed today and they were down to just a few cases of water. Cashier said after Irene some of my neighbors were without power for 9 days. If I lived in SC, I would already have a hotel room booked somewhere far away. Care to elaborate on the rationale behind your predictions? Or was it...just a hunch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keelala Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 14 minutes ago, WeatherShak said: Care to elaborate on the rationale behind your predictions? Or was it...just a hunch... Well... a hunch. I'm not going to claim it was scientific because I'm not well-versed enough to back it up. I'm unemployed right now so my thing is... staying up all night and staring at maps. Radar, wind, pressure, ocean temp, etc. Saw it as an invest with the winds going the way they were, used the WindMap app to track it forward 5 days, and decided I didn't believe it was going to take a northward turn. Looked like it was on a fairly straight course. I know things are unpredictable two weeks in advance, just had a hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 10, 2018 Author Share Posted September 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, Keelala said: Well... a hunch. I'm not going to claim it was scientific because I'm not well-versed enough to back it up. I'm unemployed right now so my thing is... staying up all night and staring at maps. Radar, wind, pressure, ocean temp, etc. Saw it as an invest with the winds going the way they were, used the WindMap app to track it forward 5 days, and decided I didn't believe it was going to take a northward turn. Looked like it was on a fairly straight course. I know things are unpredictable two weeks in advance, just had a hunch. dank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 What's the best site to get GOES-16 loops/images? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 48 minutes ago, bobbutts said: What's the best site to get GOES-16 loops/images? Don't know about the best, but this is the easiest to navigate imo: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/goes-16.asp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 10, 2018 Author Share Posted September 10, 2018 why are NYC weenies the worst tropical posters? anyone have a theory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Can't wait for Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 10, 2018 Author Share Posted September 10, 2018 Just now, Chicago Storm said: Can't wait for Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 10, 2018 Author Share Posted September 10, 2018 that's definitely my new favorite past time. the rorshach test of "which of the 3 major hurricanes i ever paid attention to that this looks like" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: that's definitely my new favorite past time. the rorshach test of "which of the 3 major hurricanes i ever paid attention to that this looks like" my tropical experience includes Irma, Sandy, and Joaquin for 3 days so every storm that threatens the east coast reminds me of 1 those 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 41 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: why are NYC weenies the worst tropical posters? anyone have a theory? hyper-excitement after Sandy hit up here. Every damn storm is going to be a "Sandy-redux" blah-blah-blah Also, don't *EVER* go into the NYC forum if there's a blizzard anywhere on the east coast. The weenie talk during a hurricane is nothing compared to snowstorm talk. I often fear someone is going to be found dead at their computer from lack of sleep/food and the stress of proving themselves right on the message board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 10, 2018 Author Share Posted September 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, ny10019 said: Also, don't *EVER* go into the NYC forum if there's a blizzard anywhere on the east coast. yuck. why would i follow snow?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Just now, the ghost of leroy said: yuck. why would i follow snow?? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldnorthstate Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 So, I have a flight scheduled to land at RDU Thursday 4 AM. How are my chances looking of that flight happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 10, 2018 Author Share Posted September 10, 2018 1 minute ago, oldnorthstate said: So, I have a flight scheduled to land at RDU Thursday 4 AM. How are my chances looking of that flight happening? 85% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 give me 110kt at landfall id gamble and ride it out if I was on the coast as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drexelkathy Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 9 minutes ago, oldnorthstate said: So, I have a flight scheduled to land at RDU Thursday 4 AM. How are my chances looking of that flight happening? Airlines are already offering to re-book flights in that region for no fee. Check your carrier website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 1 hour ago, the ghost of leroy said: then get these people under control. the comparisons to irma based upon looks alone are worthless. 1 hour ago, jburns said: I'm going to start with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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