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wxeyeNH

NNE Fall Thread

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14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

lol...F the rain

This is all very exciting.  I finished October with 4.14".  First above norm month since at least April.  My manmade pond has some water in it.  I guess the  ground is near saturation so this rain will be runoff into the pond.  It should rise quite a bit, I'm hoping for 5 feet, setting it up for ice skating for the neighbors' kids.  Of course, this is the last thing you need on your northward facing hill.  Maybe the heavy rain axis will set up just north of you and start balancing out the NNE deficits with the CNE surplus.  We will shortly see.

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It sounded like November was going to kick off fairly warm, but I saw the recent GFS runs and figured I should see what the BTV NWS had to say.  Indeed they’re noting Saturday night into Sunday as the next chance for snow:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

1029 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

As of 324 PM EDT Wednesday...The long term will be bookended, with most activity at the start and towards the finish. A developing surface low will shift northward Saturday morning with the upper trough lingering behind. Wrap around moisture will result in lingering showers. Showers will gradually shift towards upslope regions with a gradual transition towards snow above 1000ft elevation into Sunday morning. The upper trough shifts east of the North Country with deep layer ridging in place by Sunday. Seasonable temperatures are expected for the weekend, with dry weather for Sunday.

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October totals: 2.7” Snow/4.87” L.E.

October is in the books, and it was certainly a decent one with respect to snow at our site.  Snowfall (2.7”) and number of accumulating storms (4) were both above average.  We had six days with a trace or more of snowfall, and I don’t have the stats on that, but I’m sure it’s above average as well.  And, that was all condensed into the last half of the month, so that was quite an active period for wintry weather.

October liquid was 4.87”, which is ~10% below average for my data set, but it felt at least close to typical, and it was nice to have the moisture train going at times with the early winter events coming through.

It’s going to be interesting to see how November goes after such a strong October.  There are some Novembers in my data set that didn’t even achieve the number of storms or snowfall that this October did, but those are definitely the bottom of the barrel type months.  We’ll see how it goes, but even average temperatures would mean a number of snow chances, and the models suggest there are some out there.

It’s sort of funny that with the above average valley snowfall, the local mountains didn’t have any notably large snow events.  We’ll often have something where the moisture and cold air combine to get something in the 6”+ range, but it just didn’t quite come together in the Greens this October despite the numerous rounds of snow.

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October numbers at my place - averages are compared only to my location.  Rumors of a mild month were overblown.  The rolling average did pop up to +1.6 following the +17 warmth of the 10th, but by the 15th it had dropped into BN country and never slowed the descent.  From 10/13 thru the end of the month, temps ran 6.4 BN with just one AN day (20th).

Avg max:  49.3   5.9 BN and coolest avg max of 21 here by 1.1°    Highest was 78 on both 9th and 10th.  Coldest max was 33 on the snowy 27th.
Avg. min  33.9   0.6 BN     Coldest was 22 in the 27th pre-dawn, before the clouds thickened.  Mildest min was 50 on the 10th.
Mean was 41.6   3.3 BN and 2nd coolest October after 2002.

Precip:  5.12"  0.60" BN (Oct is the wettest month here.)  Biggest one day:  0.90" on the 2nd.  Three separate storms totaled 2.92" during 24-29.

The 1.5" on 27-28 is the 3rd largest October snow I've measured, 0.1" ahead of 2005 but way behind 2000 (6.3") and 2011 (4.5".)  It's just my 6th measurable snow in 21 Octobers.

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29 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

We missed most of the July and August rains, but it certainly hasn't felt like a drought with above normal rain in September and well above normal rain in October....and looks to continue now in November. 

There was standing water in my yard this morning.  

Hopefully this means the precip anomalies are moving in up here for the winter ;).

I’ve been noticing the discussion about the recent uptick in precipitation around here.  We’re definitely into the snowfall season now that it’s November, so it’s a good time to have it step up.  On average, this is when the mountain snowpack starts to build, and we certainly need precipitation to do that.  I wouldn’t mind a couple of dry days for finishing fall yard cleanup though – maybe Sunday will have some potential for nice weather?

After the chance at a bit of snow Saturday night, it looks like the midweek precipitation is warm with that Midwestern system.  So, the next shot at any frozen would be heading into the end of the week and next weekend - we’ll have to see if there are any effects from Great Lakes moisture:

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

743 AM EDT Fri Nov 2 2018

Behind the front temperatures gradually cool into Thursday as flow trends more west/southwesterly and conditions trend drier outside some lake effect response off Lake Ontario.

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46F  light to moderate rain.  Approaching 1".    I'm jealous of the guys in SNE.  60's!   It will be interesting to watch the front today to see how far north it gets.  No doubt I will stay in the gloom and cold.

Pond coming up.  7 ducks feasting in the shallow water now covering up the grass.  Great to have my pond back.

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Pretty cool shear in the atmosphere as this evening as I'm looking towards the eastern side of Stowe where the Worcester Range ridge sits 3,000-3,600ft high.  

The mid-level clouds are racing from right to left in the photo which is southerly flow... while the low level fog bank under the inversion is moving the exact opposite and it's flowing left to right in the low level northerly flow. 

MVL here in the valley bottom confirms it with North wind 5-10mph, while Mt Mansfield rips out of the SSW at 40kts.  Almost 180-degree difference in cloud movement depending on above or below the inversion.  A time lapse would've been much cooler, seeing the clouds head in opposite directions depending on height.

IMG_1031.thumb.JPG.0cd95f6a8e55473077668fd7596cc315.JPG

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Just hit 50F.  Last time was Oct 21rst.   .95" of rain last night and today.  Now the next slug.

I was in the fog and low clouds all day.  Took the drone up for a look around.  Just a few hundred feet above me the visibility was 75 miles.  I could see the Green Mountains to the west and the snow on Mt Washington to the north.  Not going to post the whole video but here is a screenshot looking west over Newfound Lake.

Untitled.jpg

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I just checked in on the latest BTV NWS forecast discussion and they’re certainly seeing some snow potential at elevation tomorrow night:

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

331 PM EDT Fri Nov 2 2018

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

As of 331 PM EDT Friday... For tonight, the last wave of surface low pressure we`ve been talking about for several days now takes form off the mid-Atlantic coast and rides northward along the stalled frontal boundary bringing another round of rainfall to the region after sunset and through the night. Could be a break in the rainfall during the pre-dawn hours Saturday as the low passes to the east of us, but by sunrise the upper trough shifts in and west/northwest flow will blossom precipitation again across northern areas and transition to orographic rain snow showers Saturday afternoon. Best chance at accumulating snow will be across the Adirondacks and northern Vermont where a dusting to 2" is possible, with several inches likely above 2000 feet.

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On 10/31/2018 at 7:54 PM, dendrite said:

lol...F the rain

Maybe the rain hates you!  How can we appreciate the sun if we don't have the rain?!  It irrigates crops!

 

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PF, I’ve been seeing some references to 2002-2003 as an analog year in the Countdown to Winter thread, so I took a look at the Mansfield snowpack plot from that season:

03NOV18A.jpg

I wasn’t around for that season because we were out in Montana, but it looks like a pretty steady climb in snowpack through much of the season, with a very typical melt out in the spring.  Were you around for that season and recall what it was like around here?

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Snow accumulation up around 4,000’ on Lincoln Peak began at ~12:20 PM, and it’s closing in on an inch at this point.  Man, having that camera up there on the ridgeline is really invaluable for assessing accumulations in events like these.  Hats off to Sugarbush, John, and whoever else worked to put together such a great resource for skiers.

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10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Big drop on Mansfield... from 46F to 31F in one hour.

IMG_1038.PNG.4d6d5c08cb9d23cf55cedd0284ab2b9d.PNG

Nice, I guess it was only a matter of time with the way things seemed to be changing over.  I’m sure it’s pounding up there if Lincoln Peak picked up its first inch in about an hour.

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Just now, J.Spin said:

Nice, I guess it was only a matter of time with the way things seemed to be changing over.  I’m sure it’s pounding up there if Lincoln Peak picked up its first inch in about an hour.

Hearing it's over to snow at BV and mixing in the Smuggs base village.

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32 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Cat paws mixing with the rain here on the Canadian border in Derby. Temp on the car thermo was 38 when I stopped for lunch. 

Over to all snow. 

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38 minutes ago, borderwx said:

When did the cam on 242 go in?

Just noticed the pole/panel today coming back from Montgomery 

pretty ugly here, on/off snow sitting on 33F

 

That cam has been there for at least 5 years that I know of... not sure when before  that.

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

RT 108 in the Notch should've been closed this morning but they left it open and it sounds like a mess.

I haven't seen VTrans miss a Notch closing like this before.  Saw a post online from Chittenden County emergency alerts that car(s) were abandoned and people walked down RT 108 from the pass at 2,200ft as Vermont State Police couldn't get to them due to the conditions of the roadway.  The vehicles will be there until the road is deemed passable...so any owner with a car up there better pray this melts otherwise it could be a long wait to get your car back.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I haven't seen VTrans miss a Notch closing like this before.  Saw a post online from Chittenden County emergency alerts that car(s) were abandoned and people walked down RT 108 from the pass at 2,200ft as Vermont State Police couldn't get to them due to the conditions of the roadway.  The vehicles will be there until the road is deemed passable...so any owner with a car up there better pray this melts otherwise it could be a long wait to get your car back.

Eh, no worries, few more cutters coming before winter sets in.

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