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wxeyeNH

NNE Fall Thread

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So many issues in the Notch this afternoon... now you know why they close it as soon as the first flake falls.  Sh*t hits the fan fast.  There are photos of vehicles all over the place.

IMG_1069.thumb.PNG.c498194825636882221c7984b8357784.PNG

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Event totals: 0.1” Snow/2.67” L.E.

We picked up our first snow accumulations of November once the frozen precipitation began making it down to the valley floors yesterday evening.  Temperatures were obviously on the warm side for much of this system being so early in the season, but the total liquid from this event certainly shows how prodigious these stalled/semi-stationary frontal boundaries can be.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0

Snow Density: 10.0% H2O

Temperature: 37.4 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 0 inches

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We’ve had some additional spits of snow this morning around here in Waterbury, but any substantial accumulations are at elevation.  The mountains do look gorgeous righty now with the new snow; they’re certainly plastered in white.  From the Lincoln Peak Snow Cam it looks like Sugarbush picked up 2-3” from this event, the snow depth at the Mt. Mansfield Stake went up 3 inches, and from the images PF sent along, it looks like Jay Peak had a few inches as well.  So overall in the Central/Northern Greens it seems like accumulations were 3-4 inches at elevation?  I’m not seeing anything noted in Killington’s snow report this morning, so I guess all notable accumulations were north of there.

I’d consider heading up with the skis to poke around in the snow a bit, but with the time change now in place, getting anything done in the yard after work is pretty much off the table going forward.  We’ve still got plenty to do to finish up, so today might be one of the best options we’ve got left.  November is already pretty dicey around here with respect to getting yard work done before winter starts to set in – even when we aren’t dealing with snow, there are still the issues of precipitation, having enough hours and temperatures for things to every dry out, and trying to get things done out in the raw weather.  Looking at the recent model runs, it wouldn’t surprise me if we were dealing with snow again, or at least some sort of unfavorable weather next weekend.

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21 hours ago, powderfreak said:

That cam has been there for at least 5 years that I know of... not sure when before  that.

Hahaha

Thanks PF.  Guess I have always been looking at the woods. 

Nice to feel the sun today

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Nice to finally see the summits after a week of clouds and precipitation.  The Spine looked nice & white while driving on the west side...from the Monroe Skyline to Camels Hump, Bolton, Mansfield to Jay.  Big contrast between the nearby valleys and the higher terrain.  Snow level 1,500-2,000ft...below that line it's stick season, above that elevation it's winter.

45381683_10103574340125600_1305991136854

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22 hours ago, powderfreak said:

From near Jay Peak... looks like a decent paste job up that way.  

IMG_1067.JPG.9db5ad6b838dfec9897783fc21e724ec.JPG

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Sweet! Folks posting in the Back-country touring in the northeast were wondering where to go and I mentioned Jay would be my best guess. If that's at say 1500' I'm sure the top was very skiable! Maybe we can cash in on some more snow next weekend.

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The BTV NWS is starting to discuss some of the snow potential with the Friday-Saturday system.  All the major models are showing some snow at this point, but the discussion highlights that a component for a longer period of mountain snow will be how quickly the coastal low takes over as the primary low:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

619 AM EST Tue Nov 6 2018

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

As of 408 AM EST Tuesday...Deterministic guidance continues to show a double-barrel low pressure system forms at the surface Friday afternoon, spreading precipitation into the North Country Friday night through Saturday morning. Soundings show ptype will be mainly driven by boundary layer temperatures with support for valley rain and mountain snow showers Friday afternoon and evening before WAA potentially transitions frozen precipitation to a cold rain Friday night. I say "potentially" because if the coastal low becomes the primary low, soundings would likely be colder and support a longer period of snow across the higher terrain. Currently, models don`t show this, but several days out from the event is a lot of time for things to change.  Precipitation transitions to orographic snow showers Saturday morning as the low/mid level flow veers to the west/northwest post cold frontal passage, with some accumulations at the higher elevations likely.

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The afternoon update from the BTV NWS is in, and I’ve added their thoughts on the Friday-Saturday system below.  Current thinking covers the double barrel low and suggests snow levels starting out on the valley floors and rising to ~2,500’ on Friday:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

331 PM EST Tue Nov 6 2018

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...As of 328 PM EST Tuesday...The weekend looks quite active as an upper level trough digs in over the eastern conus. The deterministic runs have been fairly consistent in developing a double barrel low pressure type solution with a low that tracks up the Saint Lawrence and one that tracks up the Atlantic coastline Friday into Saturday. That scenario puts the North Country right the middle of a high convergence zone which should lead to widespread precipitation Friday night into Saturday. P-type will be interesting because there will be some warm air pushing in aloft but with wet bulb effects I would anticipate much of the North Country even to the valley floors will see snow initially. As we move into the day on Friday expect the warm air aloft to bring snow levels up and so rain will become the dominant p-type below 2500 feet. By mid afternoon Saturday the lows will have pushed well to the northeast and the flow become more orographic. Precip will become more terrain forced and showery through the afternoon.

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Well, we’re getting to the stage of this upcoming storm where it’s time for maps.  There aren’t any winter advisories in Vermont, but there are some in the Adirondacks and over in Coos County

In Vermont there’s a Hazardous Weather Outlook for this for this event, mentioning 2 to 4 inches of snow accumulating on elevated surfaces east of the Champlain Valley, and 4 to 8 inches of snow above 2,000’.  The Hazardous Weather Outlook also mentions the potential midweek storm, because the BTV NWS feels additional accumulations are possible there.

The point forecast for our site has us in the 1-3” accumulation range, and in the projected accumulation map the peaks of the Greens are in the 8-12” range, which generally jives with the point forecast for Mansfield.

09NOV18A.jpg

09NOV18B.jpg

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  Friday 9 Saturday 10 Sunday 11 Monday 12 Tuesday 13 Wednesday 14
°F AM PM night AM PM night AM PM night AM PM night AM PM night AM PM night
                                     
                                     
Summary
cloudy
light snow
light snow
light snow
light snow
some clouds
clear
clear
clear
some clouds
cloudy
light snow
mod. snow
heavy snow
snow shwrs
snow shwrs
light snow
some clouds
Snow map
More
T appal snow sum09.cc23
T appal snow sum10.cc23
T appal snow sum11.cc23
T appal snow sum12.cc23
T appal snow sum13.cc23
T appal snow sum14.cc23
 
 
in
- 0.8 0.4 0.4 - - - - - - - 1.2 3.5 3.9 2.0 - - -
in
- - 0.4 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
max°F
36 34 39 28 23 19 21 21 19 30 30 28 34 34 25 10 10 9
min°F
32 34 36 23 21 16 18 19 18 27 30 28 32 30 5 10 9 7
chill°F
25 21 23 5 3 -4 0 3 3 16 19 18 23 19 -18 -13 -15 -17
Humid.% 53 75 86 90 79 85 65 45 64 81 71 81 98 99 93 59 83 85
Freezing level (ft) 3100 3100 7100 2000 500 0 0 0 0 800 2100 1600 2500 4300 0 0 0 0

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With their afternoon update the BTV NWS added a Winter Weather Advisory to Northeastern and Central Vermont along the spine, with a bit of a bump in accumulations there to the 2-6” range.  The emphasis for accumulations is still on elevations above 1,000’ or even 1,500’, but our point forecast at 500’ did get a bump to 2-4”.  I suspect any accumulations down low will depend on snowfall rates etc.  On the projected accumulations map, the higher elevations in the area were dropped into the 4-8” range, which is consistent with the updated point forecast for Mansfield.

09NOV18C.jpg

09NOV18D.jpg

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Road was snow covered and slushy until 1,000ft.  

Big difference in accums even 900-1200ft. 1200ft is like paste job snow stuck to everything and then by 900-1000ft it's just a faint whitening on the grass.

Snowing and raining here at 750ft.  Mostly snow but also a white rain as it's never gonna stick at these temps down here unless it starts to nuke over .1"/hr in the bucket.

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