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NNE Fall Thread


wxeyeNH
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Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.01” L.E.

 

We’ve had a bit of snow in the air this evening, but it seems like today’s snow associated with lake enhancement moisture is done for the most part, so

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.3 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 30.0

Snow Density: 3.3% H2O

Temperature: 18.3 F

Sky:  Flurries

Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches

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Well, this next winter storm has been deemed impactful enough to get a name, and it’s called Winter Storm Avery.  It’s essentially wall to wall winter weather advisories and winter storm watches across NNE at this point as the advisories map below shows.  The BTV NWS projected accumulations map has generally got 4-6” in the valleys and 6-8” along the spine of the Greens.

14NOV18A.jpg

14NOV18B.jpg

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Alex, not sure if you saw my question or if I simply cannot find your reply, but how many events have you had?

Hey, sorry about that - I hadn't seen it. Responded there but I'll add it here too (it's also in the snow table, I've been trying to keep up with it at least after somewhat meaningful events). My total so far is 14.8":

18-Oct 0.5
19-Oct 0
24-Oct 1.75
25-Oct 0.1
28-Oct 0.2
3-Nov 0.2
9-Nov 1.5
10-Nov 1.75
11-Nov 0.7
13-Nov 8
14-Nov 0.1

A lot of these were very elevation dependent, so the ski hill got a lot more. 

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Boy this storm doesn't look like a big deal up here.  GFS only has .25" or so qpf,  Euro and NAM a bit more.  Maybe this will be a 3-6" type event.  Most will fall overnight.  Guess Im getting jaded when a storm like this doesn't even get me excited and its only mid November.  Glad the SNE weenies are getting something.

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Saw -4 at BML this morning, and 3 at IZG.  Wind was still mixing things well into the evening so my possible run at zero was delayed, but temp got down near that IZG reading.

I think a lot of folks were caught a bit short for winter prep.  In my case our reno project occupied the front porch for materials prep.  Since that's where we usually have about 60% of the year's firewood stacked by Nov 1, it put me way behind, and just as we cleaned off the construction stuff the rain arrived, further complicating things.  Now it looks like there will be a foot of snow on the wood piled in the yard by tomorrow evening - at 5" currently - which will only slow the process more.  It's also deer season, though for the first time since moving to Maine in 1973 I failed to hunt a single minute until the middle Saturday, and have been out only 2 mornings and one (very windy) evening.

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1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

Boy this storm doesn't look like a big deal up here.  GFS only has .25" or so qpf,  Euro and NAM a bit more.  Maybe this will be a 3-6" type event.  Most will fall overnight.  Guess Im getting jaded when a storm like this doesn't even get me excited and its only mid November.  Glad the SNE weenies are getting something.

I like widespread 4-7" but where ever that mesoscale band sets up in NNY and NVT into NNH could pop 8"+ in a short amount of time.

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I just checked out the BTV NWS map updates, and as they often do, they’ve slowly ratcheted things up as the storm gets closer and confidence builds.  The projected accumulations were bumped up a notch, apparently enough that it nudged most areas into Winter Storm Warning criteria, so those have expanded to a lot of the area.  For our site, the point forecast is in the 6-12” range through Friday night, and as PF has been saying (and the BTV NWS forecast discussion notes as well), getting up into the higher end of that range would probably depend on getting into some banding.

15NOV18C.jpg

15NOV18D.jpg

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Below I’ve added the latest projected accumulations map from the BTV NWS.  They talk about the mesoband hitting the Champlain Valley in their discussion, so the updated totals seem to reflect that.  Here at the house our most recent overnight forecasts were 3-5” and then 4-8”, and both were good estimates of what we received.

16NOV18A.jpg

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Snowfall was light and flake size was small as I headed west from Waterbury this morning, and it stayed that way as I continued toward the Champlain Valley up until I hit Williston.  At that point the flakes got larger (10-15 mm) and intensity increased.  Visibility was still in the ½ to ¼ mile range, so nothing outrageous, but a definite bump up from farther east.  There’s a steady snow here in Burlington now, and it looks like the snow is pushing back to the east now based on the radar:

16NOV18A.gif

Road conditions were fine this morning, snow-packed on Route 2 and black tire lanes on I-89.  I didn’t see any accidents so it looks like it was experienced Vermonters driving the way experienced winter drivers do.

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