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NCSNOW

Hurricane Florence

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1 hour ago, SN_Lover said:

Really sad. I went and ate on the island today and it was like a funeral in the restaurant. Everyone was rightfully scared. It's a sad situation all around. I know weather enthusiasts love this, but i now see it from a local perspective and it's depressing. I hope it curves out to see :( 

 

Sorry bro, my wife and I love wrightsville beach, and this track wld ruin that beach. Tough to think about.

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47 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Joe Bastardi Retweeted Joe Bastardi

First ideas on flooding with this were last Thur/Fri but worry was centered more in Va to Pa. In any case honing in now a bit further south,

Joe Bastardi added,

Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi
Since Wednesday we have had this going inland over NC and then crawling into VA. Should this turn out correct, this is likely to be the worst natural disaster on record for Carolinas into VA Major hit combined with 3-4 feet of rain in some places over 3-4 day period.
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With Floyd in the history books this seems a little premature.

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5 minutes ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

Honestly, I think it's too early to say what roads would be like 10 days from now.

Yeah no doubt, I'm just really worried since the vacation is already paid for and everything. I'm hoping our neighborhood won't be completely flooded or trees blocking exits or anything...not sure if it will get that bad of course, but I guess the potential is there and this is so super stressful. The timing for events going on in my personal life is almost as bad as it gets. Ugh. 

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8 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

With Floyd in the history books this seems a little premature.

If the euro verifies, he will highly likely be correct unfortunately. Bad enough when you get landfall from any tropical wx system. But ones that come inland and stall are the worst.

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3 minutes ago, Wow said:

Still have a hunch this will end up a SC hit.  I think the N turn will be delayed.

Same here, especially since she's still moving west.

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8 minutes ago, Wow said:

Still have a hunch this will end up a SC hit.  I think the N turn will be delayed.

yep, like irma's guidance just farther north.

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12 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

yep, like irma's guidance just farther north.

The Irma experience is on my mind with that call. :rolleyes:

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37 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Sorry bro, my wife and I love wrightsville beach, and this track wld ruin that beach. Tough to think about.

Agreed I'm down there every other week, so many great friends in the path of this, has me very worried.

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10 minutes ago, Disco-lemonade said:

Agreed I'm down there every other week, so many great friends in the path of this, has me very worried.

We're not out of the woods over here :maprain:

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Can we stop with the Hugo redux commentary.  Florence isn't anything like Hugo in intensity history, past and future track, expected landfall, or expected speed following landfall.  Literally nothing about Florence is like Hugo except a big high to the north blocking passage.  As has been mentioned, Florence is more similar to other tracks and could be used as plausible analogs to her.

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3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Hoping it does weaken fast once it comes inland. Looks like the NHC has it down to 70mph now instead of 100 mph like before once it comes inland.

Actually 140mph :(

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3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Hoping it does weaken fast once it comes inland. Looks like the NHC has it down to 70mph now instead of 100 mph like before once it comes inland.

yeah that was kinda odd at first glance with the difference in strength....but then look at the timing change and how slow it moves right at landfall.....also keep in mind there is gonna be a strong 1030 mb ridge off NE and a  950-970 mb tropical low in SE NC that should mean the N and E sides quite far from the center are gonna have winds a lot stronger than you would typically in a rotting system...and that will persist for hrs and hrs if the storm stalls.....

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9 minutes ago, Taylorsweather said:

Can we stop with the Hugo redux commentary.  Florence isn't anything like Hugo in intensity history, past and future track, expected landfall, or expected speed following landfall.  Literally nothing about Florence is like Hugo except a big high to the north blocking passage.  As has been mentioned, Florence is more similar to other tracks and could be used as plausible analogs to her.

This has the potential to do more than Hugo, and make a similar landfall. I don't care where the models say it's going to make landfall. There's still a big ass cone of uncertainty, and I wouldn't discount Charleston for a landfall until Wednesday.

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9 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

yeah that was kinda odd at first glance with the difference in strength....but then look at the timing change and how slow it moves right at landfall.....also keep in mind there is gonna be a strong 1030 mb ridge off NE and a  950-970 mb tropical low in SE NC that should mean the N and E sides quite far from the center are gonna have winds a lot stronger than you would typically in a rotting system...and that will persist for hrs and hrs if the storm stalls.....

The winds will also spread out. 

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4 minutes ago, JoshM said:

This has the potential to do more than Hugo, and make a similar landfall. I don't care where the models say it's going to make landfall. There's still a big ass cone of uncertainty, and I wouldn't discount Charleston for a landfall until Wednesday.

Hugo Redux, Hugo Redux, Hugo redux! The amount of possible inland wind damage after this comes on shore, could be worse than Hugo! The flooding will be way worse than Hugo, because every model has it slowing down after it comes ashore. Hugo was 135 mph at landfall, Flo projected to be 140mph. I think the Hugo comparison is warranted, and we might be wishing it was “only” a Hugo, when all is said and done!

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4 hours ago, ncforecaster89 said:

This map isn't entirely accurate as the strongest wind gusts were measured at Figure Eight Island at 122 mph.  That's what was actually measured.  The above map only has 90 mph there. Wilmington ASOS gusted to 86 mph.  Winds obviously gusted much higher on the New Hanover county beaches, but less than 90 mph according to that map? Ridiculous!

I recorded during Fran , on Sheep Island at 130 +/- before We had to "hunker down", and our instrument "crapped out"  Cords.. 

You are forgetting Bald Head Island, Southport,, State Ports, and of course, Frying Pan Tower.. take those readings into consideration before posting, A lot more Station(s) are Accurately reporting recently.. With "Weather Stations"..  

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42 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Hugo Redux, Hugo Redux, Hugo redux! The amount of possible inland wind damage after this comes on shore, could be worse than Hugo! The flooding will be way worse than Hugo, because every model has it slowing down after it comes ashore. Hugo was 135 mph at landfall, Flo projected to be 140mph. I think the Hugo comparison is warranted, and we might be wishing it was “only” a Hugo, when all is said and done!

My call,, give Me crow with Well's BBQ Sauce..

Fran+Hugo+Floyd in a nice neat bow.. 

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