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Hurricane Florence

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Not familiar with the ILM area, but how would it cope with 40 inches of rain lol? Looking at this thing starting to stall out (already), I'm starting to think some of these estimates may be right.

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55 minutes ago, Stormsfury said:

From 11am to 2pm.  

Florence moved .2°N to .5°W and looks like she continues to slow down and bend left.  NHC official plot line is 34°N INLAND... Florence may not even make it to 34°N now... all the guidance to some degree show a WSW component.  Very critical downstream on effects in SC.

And this is the kind of thing that I'm definitely watching out for. Don't have an models or the NHC in front of me at the moment, but wasn't that turn supposed to happen later tonight?

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20 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Not familiar with the ILM area, but how would it cope with 40 inches of rain lol? Looking at this thing starting to stall out (already), I'm starting to think some of these estimates may be right.

It won't be good, Lumber and Cape Fear basins, based on RAH's historical graphics, Floyd + Dennis type total plus 10" in a single event.

 

 

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1 minute ago, WeatherNC said:

It won't be good, Lumber and Cape Fear basins, based on RAH's historical graphics, Floyd and Dennis type total plus 10" in a single event.

 

 

Good news here is those river basins are way way below their levels when Matthew hit so they can (for awhile) absorb the downpours.

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Bad News is the sandwich effect and duration. That surge is gonna push back on all the river basins, large areas of sounds, the big rivers are and will be flowing in reverse direction for another 48 hours possibly. Then you got 48 hours of rain coming down with nowhere to drain to.

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5 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

No recent microwave but if IR as any indication, structure is finally looking more favorable for slow strengthening. 

And even if it doesn’t strengthen, it’s no longer a comma Hurricane and has really built back up the south side of the storm which will only further worsen surge etc... to the north of the eye wall.  

D4AFDFDC-2809-4023-89AE-436998C51E22.png

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im at 12' above that gauge

11 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

How much above that gauge level are you?  Do you know?  anything under 35-40' I would be concerned. 

 

CF.JPG

 

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2 minutes ago, BretWheatley said:

she has really been getting better organized over the next few hours. alot of models have florence strengthening a little before landfall. with recent ir and visible loops i don't see why it couldn't happen

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11 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

And even if it doesn’t strengthen, it’s no longer a comma Hurricane and has really built back up the south side of the storm which will only further worsen surge etc... to the north of the eye wall.  

D4AFDFDC-2809-4023-89AE-436998C51E22.png

Looks like the HWRF from yesterday! Doughnut like!

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Atlantic Beach pier cam is getting ROCKED!!  Hard to tell but I think it is missing pieces at least on the right side vs what I saw before.  No way that pier stands up to 12+ hours of this pounding.

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2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Atlantic Beach pier cam is getting ROCKED!!  Hard to tell but I think it is missing pieces at least on the right side vs what I saw before.  No way that pier stands up to 12+ hours of this pounding.

Do you have a link? 

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Had an intense band come thru and knocked out our power but once the rain and winds let up, it came back on. I thought we were done with power for a long time.

 

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6 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Atlantic Beach pier cam is getting ROCKED!!  Hard to tell but I think it is missing pieces at least on the right side vs what I saw before.  No way that pier stands up to 12+ hours of this pounding.

I don’t think it’s missing any yet but this was a picture I posted earlier comparing yesterday to this morning.  The camera wasn’t moving at all then.  Unlike it being battered all around now.  You could see the end of the pier rocking and swaying with each breaker earlier so yea I don’t think it will last. :(

80FDBD1F-0197-4C09-B4AC-2A085E60CE33.jpeg

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Just had a look at the Euro ensembles. Still a surprising spread for only 60 hour forecast. Many tracks south like the op run. There is quite a difference now between GFS and Euro at hour 60.  Euro has had a left bias this storm though I believe. 

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47 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said:

And this is the kind of thing that I'm definitely watching out for. Don't have an models or the NHC in front of me at the moment, but wasn't that turn supposed to happen later tonight?

Yes. The bend back supposed to start later.  Magic number is 34.0°N now...also could be everything determining an actual landfall versus a skirt on SE NC

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Lower, Slower

5:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 13
Location: 33.7°N 76.2°W
Moving: WNW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 955 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph

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High Res NAM brings Florence in a little faster than other versions.

Most of NC Piedmont and upstate SC would have a windy day Saturday, if this verifies.

nam3km_mslp_wind_seus_45.png

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49 minutes ago, timnc910 said:

she has really been getting better organized over the next few hours. alot of models have florence strengthening a little before landfall. with recent ir and visible loops i don't see why it couldn't happen

Yea, the NHC was very clear that this evening she was moving out of a shear environment and over warm waters with favorable conditions to strengthen. Not unheard of for a storm to ramp up a notch just before landfall. I recall Charley doing that just before landfall. Charley jumped from a messy Cat 2 to a very intense organized cat 4 in like three hours - right next to Florida. 

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