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NCSNOW

Hurricane Florence

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11 minutes ago, tramadoc said:

Looks to my untrained eye that if it continues on the track it's on (looks like almost NNW) that it would make landfall around Beaufort, NC.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 

you can see the slowdown and slow drift westward here

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MHX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

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The eye is rather large ( well the inner one ) and if it landfalls at Topsail the north eyewall will be near Swansboro/Emerald Isle and the southern eyewall will be Wrightsville/ILM.....thats nuts...if she stays more west from there interior NC gonna get widespread hurricane force gust....

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24 minutes ago, tramadoc said:

Looks to my untrained eye that if it continues on the track it's on (looks like almost NNW) that it would make landfall around Beaufort, NC.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 

 

12 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

Yeah, now is the time that it should begin to veer off more to the WNW, then West....but the trend has definitely been for it tracking a little north of the Euro and TVCN guidance...the GFS has done pretty well actually in the short term, but it veers it off to the west as well

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1 minute ago, superjames1992 said:

The 11 AM advisory has Florence down to 105 MPH maximum sustained winds, though the pressure also dropped slightly.

She still has the gulfstream over the next 6-12 hours per the 11am disco and some models showed her strengthening during that crossing. This is also VERY interesting part of the disco to me.

The subtropical ridge to
the northeast and east of Florence is now well-established between
Bermuda and the U.S. mid-Atlantic region and extends westward into
Virginia and the central Appalachians. This large-scale feature is
expected to keep the hurricane moving northwestward today, followed
by a turn toward the west at a much slower speed on Friday 
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12 minutes ago, shaggy said:

She still has the gulfstream over the next 6-12 hours per the 11am disco and some models showed her strengthening during that crossing. This is also VERY interesting part of the disco to me.

The subtropical ridge to
the northeast and east of Florence is now well-established between
Bermuda and the U.S. mid-Atlantic region and extends westward into
Virginia and the central Appalachians. This large-scale feature is
expected to keep the hurricane moving northwestward today, followed
by a turn toward the west at a much slower speed on Friday 

Never bought the hard south turn; and still don't.  Think she drags right across the Sandhills of NC

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14 minutes ago, btownheel said:

Never bought the hard south turn; and still don't.  Think she drags right across the Sandhills of NC

It appears that she is already moving more to the west. Almost every model has her moving W then WSW. Now she may not make "hard south turn", but it's hard to go against modeling when there seems to be a general consensus. 

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3 minutes ago, ryan1234 said:

It appears that she is already moving more to the west. Almost every model has her moving W then WSW. Now she may not make "hard south turn, but it's hard to go against modeling when there seems to be a general consensus. 

yeah, a lot of wishcasting it into northern nc it seems. literally every model shows a nw drift followed by a west southwest turn.

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2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

yeah, a lot of wishcasting it into northern nc it seems. literally every model shows a nw drift followed by a west southwest turn.

Problem is she has consistently been on the very northern edge of the guidance and damn near left the cone yesterday. I posted their disco about continuing it NW today due to the "well established" ridge. 

She may putthe brakes on and go due wnw right now but she hasn't done it yet and each hour that she moves NW puts her having to make a sharper turn. This could have large implications into central and eastern NC.

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9 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Problem is she has consistently been on the very northern edge of the guidance and damn near left the cone yesterday. I posted their disco about continuing it NW today due to the "well established" ridge. 

She may putthe brakes on and go due wnw right now but she hasn't done it yet and each hour that she moves NW puts her having to make a sharper turn. This could have large implications into central and eastern NC.

per the most recent recon pass the center as already begun the turn.

recon_AF302-1406A-FLORENCE.png

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4 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

per the most recent recon pass the center as already begun the turn.

recon_AF302-1406A-FLORENCE.png

Yup, it's beginning to make that turn for sure. Brad P's latest VLOG mentioned she's already moving west and even mentioned possible jumps to the SW. 

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13 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

GFS, to me, ran the system in too high imo... I think it dives down further into SC than that last run showed because it is really slowing down now

Let me guess,  you’re from SC!   Any scientific proof or just wish casting?  I had a post deleted yesterday for wishcasting it to you!  Even NHC said they had no confidence after landfall.   That said I hope it’s all to SC.

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Just now, rjtysinger said:

Let me guess,  you’re from SC!   Any scientific proof or just wish casting?  I had a post deleted yesterday for wishcasting it to you!

The center blob looks like it is moving almost due west right now, that plus slowing in forward speed might kick it further down south-southwest west. This is going to be a long day and night for everybody, so even nowcasting is wishcasting.

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2 minutes ago, rjtysinger said:

Let me guess,  you’re from SC!   Any scientific proof or just wish casting?  I had a post deleted yesterday for wishcasting it to you!

Can we stop it with this tomfoolery already? You're from NC, obviously. And they aren't wishcasting. The GFS has sorta been an outliner this whole time. It's hard to go against the Euro and most the hurricane modeling guidance. Not the mention the NHC. 

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