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NCSNOW

Hurricane Florence

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4 minutes ago, griteater said:

Euro Ensemble Mean is much like its last run.  Storm moves into Wilmington area, then moves SW, where the mean is actually just off the SC coast (same as last run).  This run is slower with the progression SW thru the SC coast...so, an increasing heavy rainfall threat in eastern / NE South Carolina.

Also more time over water (ie the Gulf Stream)

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She is about to run right out of the north side of the NHC cone lol.....it doesnt imply the NHC track is wrong down the road.....just that its wrong right now.....I cant figure out how to link a loop of her with the NHC track overlay from CIMSS.....so do it yourself :)

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=06L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0

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2 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

She is about to run right out of the north side of the NHC cone lol.....it doesnt imply the NHC track is wrong down the road.....just that its wrong right now.....I cant figure out how to link a loop of her with the NHC track overlay from CIMSS.....so do it yourself :)

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=06L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0

This is what I was thinking. Looks to be coming in high and hot. A little north and a little faster than NHC advisory. Its tricky visually out in the ocean, if there is a variance I'm sure model runs and new advisories will account for it, but it sure is nerve racking thinking its high and hot with so little room for error.

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Especially when it seems like everything has been trending south for a while now. I'm anxiously looking forward to the NHC's next update. I'm also curious about how they handle all the models that keep showing southwest movement off the coast on this one.

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A narrow window of opportunity remains during the next 24 hours or
so for Florence to strengthen a little when the hurricane passes
over the warmer SSTs and deeper warm water/higher upper-ocean heat
content associated with the Gulf Stream, and low vertical shear
conditions of 5-10 kt will aid in any strengthening process.
However, significant strengthening is not anticipated due to
Florence's large and expanding inner-core wind field. 

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Looks like they dont think the short term track error matters downstream....

Therefore, only a slight
eastward shift was needed to the previous forecast track through 36
hours or so, mainly due to the more eastward initial position based
on the reconnaissance fixes. At 48 hours and beyond, no significant
changes were required to the previous advisory track, which still
shows Florence moving slowly westward across South Carolina and
western North Carolina on day 4, followed by a slow northward motion
up the Appalachian mountain chain on day 5.
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20 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said:

Especially when it seems like everything has been trending south for a while now. I'm anxiously looking forward to the NHC's next update. I'm also curious about how they handle all the models that keep showing southwest movement off the coast on this one.

Todays modle runs have ttrended ever so slightly north.

 

Just now, StormFollowerUSA said:

What CLT? 

Charlotte

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I think the Raleigh news station mets just took some time off....haven't seen anything tweeted today. WRAL basically just says "Rain." for the weekend...

I'm assuming Raleigh wind/rain totals are fairly low at this point? My sister in Charlotte just had a baby and I was going to offer for them to come up here so they're not without power for days.

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7 minutes ago, phishbfm said:

I think the Raleigh news station mets just took some time off....haven't seen anything tweeted today. WRAL basically just says "Rain." for the weekend...

I'm assuming Raleigh wind/rain totals are fairly low at this point? My sister in Charlotte just had a baby and I was going to offer for them to come up here so they're not without power for days.

Allan Huffman posted his forecast map about an hour ago and has Raleigh in the 3-6" of rain area. He didn't make a wind prediction, but if you were to go by forecasts and models, you'd say maybe gusts in the 40-50 mph range.

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12 minutes ago, JoshM said:

:facepalm:

Has everyone lost their minds around my area?

 

Evidently.  Overall this thing has been a bit overhyped IMO, from evacuating the entire SC coast 2 days ago to this.  The charlotte observer is telling everybody on the front page for everybody to be prepared to be without power for 3 days.  I'm just not seeing it for clt.  Yes, there's going to be alot of rain (maybe).  And if you live in a floodplain, there's going to be flooding (could be).  I'm not sure power outages are going to be widespread even if there is alot of rain.  So why cancel schools....before it even reaches Charlotte? Facebook recommendations seem out of control too from what I hear from my workmates. 

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Some of the schools in the CMS area are being used as shelters for those evacuating the coast. 

Other school systems are closing around the area, but i dont know if its for the same reason or just overkill. 

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Just now, wx4life said:

Some of the schools in the CMS area are being used as shelters for those evacuating the coast. 

Other school systems are closing around the area, but i dont know if its for the same reason or just overkill. 

It's a domino effect, one closes, they all do.

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From my NWS office:

Friday
Tropical storm conditions possible. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Friday Night
Tropical storm conditions possible. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday
Hurricane conditions possible. A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Saturday Night
Hurricane conditions possible. Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday
Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Sunday Night
Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

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Per the wind maps on Weather.us a lot of 60+ mph winds...she has a huge wind field if accurate it gets strong TS gust into the Triangle, this is why people need to stay focused.....not to mention that she still keeps on trucking NW away from the NHC track she could end up here sooner and north of where the forecast is now.....there isnt nearly as much stall either she keeps it moving though she does it slowly...still it makes more sense than sitting and spinning right on the coast the going SW to Charleston offshore....lots of people with no power this run

us_model-en-087-0_modusa_2018091218_46_23960_377.thumb.png.a9eb60bcc63430428f75968e3768d278.png

 

 

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Yeah, so GFS, NAM, CMC are perhaps trending a bit north. Euro isn't buying it. NHC went with what seems like extreme Euro. Tough to be a forecaster, but I'm a little more concerned as someone in the Triangle now.

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Glad it has weakened today and hope it doesn't strengthen anymore. Wife and I went out to eat this evening and most restaurants and fast food joints are closed. Found a Waffle house open so reluctantly ate there. Gas stations are closing and most grocery stores are open until about 9 or 10 tonight and then closing until storm passes.

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