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NCSNOW

Hurricane Florence

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23 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

I didn't expect this storm to get the classic east coast comma shape with weaker/drier west and south sides but it certainly looks to be taking on that appearance. Maybe it's just temporary but it could be tough to maintain cat 4 with that structure.

There’s some shear that probably won’t  last much longer.  The water vapor loop shows it well. 

49A7A9E5-35D8-4970-A752-46949AFC26F6.jpeg

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I bet they'll slow it down at 5 AM. They probably want to see the 00z suite before going all-in on the stall-and-meander solution.

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6 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

I bet they'll slow it down at 5 AM. They probably want to see the 00z suite before going all-in on the stall-and-meander solution.

Agree. If it truly does lose all or practically all steering currents and is just spinning over the ocean like a top, it will tend to bounce off the land mass.

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For what its worth the ICON is sticking to its guns getting up to Cape Lookout/MHX again at 00Z......its going to sit over Bogue Banks for a bit then move W inland like the previous run.....very similar to the Ukie 12Z run as well.

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8 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Any chance this continues to maybe move south for landfall?  Maybe down at MB?

Sure. Several models have shown this. Landfall is technically only after the full eye moves over land, so it could brush onshore without making a full landfall and then go elsewhere! 

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2 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

For what its worth the ICON is sticking to its guns getting up to Cape Lookout/MHX again at 00Z......its going to sit over Bogue Banks for a bit then move W inland like the previous run.....very similar to the Ukie 12Z run as well.

I'm intrigued by that solution as well. Is there another Ukie run soon?

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12 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Any chance this continues to maybe move south for landfall?  Maybe down at MB?

Certainly, and that’s well within the NHC cone.

Pretty sizable shift on the track tonight, and one that would probably spare Raleigh to some extent, I would expect.  It will be interesting to see how/if the still develops.  It almost seems too wonky to be legitimate on some of the models, but we’ve seen similar things before (I.e. Harvey).

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Indeed, the GFS and Euro show only 1-2" of rain for RDU and wind gusts topping out in the 40s at best. Any more shifts south and it'll just be cloudy and breezy. A far cry from what the public probably still expects from this storm.

I was not sold on this Fran-like track that was all the rage Sunday and Monday, but I expected that a track up the coast and out to sea around the upper-level ridge would be the most favored scenario. It's hard to think that we'd get a stall scenario this far north in mid-September, yet now with these persistent big ridges in the eastern half of the country, I guess this may be the new norm.

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38 minutes ago, Justicebork said:

NAM - Florence stalls out east of Wilmington at 42 and refuses to budge for the rest of the run. There will be moisture.

That's what she said.

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Is it worth remembering that 2 days ago the path was Fran-like and trending right and while it's trending left now, it may still trend back and end up having a solution in the middle?  I guess the answer is anything is possible given the circumstances.  I also recall hearing that the Gulf system could have an impact on Florence's steering. Any thoughts on that?

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2 minutes ago, JoshM said:

3k NAM @60 hours is ~ 100 miles SW of 12k

Is the 3k, or the regular NAM for that matter, a reliable tropical model? Don't both of them get their initial and boundary conditions from the GFS?

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42 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

There’s some shear that probably won’t  last much longer.  The water vapor loop shows it well. 

49A7A9E5-35D8-4970-A752-46949AFC26F6.jpeg

If it comes ashore looking anything like that, Josh is going to vomit. :lol:

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The important thing is that the ridge over the SE is a bit stronger than 18z, which would argue for more of a stall and a more easterly track.

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11 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said:

Is it worth remembering that 2 days ago the path was Fran-like and trending right and while it's trending left now, it may still trend back and end up having a solution in the middle?  I guess the answer is anything is possible given the circumstances.  I also recall hearing that the Gulf system could have an impact on Florence's steering. Any thoughts on that?

Higher uncertainty given the stall and crawl scenario, but the Euro Ensembles moving south last night and holding today (along with the FV3), taking the system into SC, is pretty telling IMO

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Just now, griteater said:

Higher uncertainty given the stall and crawl scenario, but the Euro Ensembles moving south last night and holding today (along with the FV3), taking the system into SC, is pretty telling IMO

Yep. The models have converged in a way that they were not a day or so ago. They show some track variance and some small detail differences, but the overall picture is pretty much the same among all of the majors (GGEM excepted).

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GGEM takes it slowly inland over eastern NC. It was the last outlier. It's still kind of an outlier in its northerliness, but not by as much.

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This GFS run just shows how much a 75-100 mile change can make, between 54 and 60 it slams on the brakes barely stopping before landfalling in Onslow Bay if it goes another 50-100 miles before stopping it changes things for a lot of people inland.....and that 100 miles is well within the margin of error in the 50 hr range....

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