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Hurricane Florence

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10 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

It then pushes inland moving NW past Greenville and over the mountains past NE Tenn. Mountains would get good rains with this path. 

Mountains dont need anymore rain. It has literally rained since May.

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19 minutes ago, mjwise said:

Significant left/anti-poleward motion has never been observed with an Atlantic major hurricane at the mid latitudes in the 160+ year historical record either, so there's that too. Even getting to shore is an uncommon achievement for storms at this latitude.

Sandy and Isabel are 2 that come to mind that made significant left hand moves but you are right that none that we know of have made SW moves this far north.

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8 minutes ago, Rainforrest said:

How much rain are we looking at for the mountains?

Looks like 4-6+ on the TT maps for the FV3, but that would almost definitely be underdone in the SE facing escarpment areas. Strong, moist SE flow is the last thing you want to see and I wouldn't be surprised for some areas to see a foot or more. Only good news is that it's actually moving by then instead of just crawling.

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18z HWRF is a landfall at N Myrtle at hour 60.  It pushes WSW into South Carolina from there.

18z HMON is a Wilmington landfall at 63, moving on to Charlotte.

 

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3 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

The crazy SW drift on the GFS would be tossed if it was by itself... But the EURO showed it first with a near identical track with a Charleston landfall

Don’t forget about the eps and FV3 GFS. 

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5 minutes ago, yotaman said:

Sandy and Isabel are 2 that come to mind that made significant left hand moves but you are right that none that we know of have made SW moves this far north.

They made left movements, yes, but not anti-poleward. If a sustained SW movement (not a stall or eye wobble) actually occurs with this storm, it's without apparent precedent in the historical record.

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5 minutes ago, wake4est said:

482E7A40-701E-46E3-A722-B7156AF765A1.png

The NHC doesn't change the track/cone on the intermediate advisories. The only thing different is the 8PM location and winds. New track will come out with the full advisory at 11PM.

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17 minutes ago, mjwise said:

They made left movements, yes, but not anti-poleward. If a sustained SW movement (not a stall or eye wobble) actually occurs with this storm, it's without apparent precedent in the historical record.

So is the fact that it's even going to hit NC based on it's location a few days ago, so....

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Im in Charleston I got my wife and Baby out. They will have to stay put for awhile I guess. I have been here few years I never leave during storm we don't flood. I'm riding this out. 

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6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

High Risk excessive flash flood risk , issued by WPC! It’s only the 2nd time it’s ever issued one of those!! The 1st one was issued for Harvey!!

I know it's a fairly new product but that's still really freaking ominous.

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7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

High Risk excessive flash flood risk , issued by WPC! It’s only the 2nd time it’s ever issued one of those!! The 1st one was issued for Harvey!!

Maybe a Day 3 high risk, but there has been several Highs Risks issued by the WPC this year. In fact they issued one as the remnants of Gordon combined with a cold front of the OH Valley this past weekend.

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37 minutes ago, bluffton21 said:

Im in Charleston I got my wife and Baby out. They will have to stay put for awhile I guess. I have been here few years I never leave during storm we don't flood. I'm riding this out. 

You should leave bro

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7 minutes ago, wake4est said:

B70E5593-38A6-4078-AF38-B6FCA46F6428.jpeg

This is where it gets shady because all the tv station local and non local are still at the minute saying gusts 30-40 and sustained lower here in Wake. This says significantly more. 

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3 minutes ago, Regan said:

This is where it gets shady because all the tv station local and non local are still at the minute saying gusts 30-40 and sustained lower here in Wake. This says significantly more. 

Listen to the NWS.

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Just now, wake4est said:

Listen to the NWS.

But it just seems so high for this to weaken so much at the coast and track more south. We will keep watching. Forecasts will keep changing. 

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5 minutes ago, Regan said:

But it just seems so high for this to weaken so much at the coast and track more south. We will keep watching. Forecasts will keep changing. 

I guess the NWS doesn’t buy the models weird tracks after the stall.  

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5 minutes ago, Regan said:

But it just seems so high for this to weaken so much at the coast and track more south. We will keep watching. Forecasts will keep changing. 

The winds aloft will still be screaming though at 850 and it wont be that unusual for them to mix down so you can have sustained 30 mph winds and still gust way up to 60-80....its common with well organized landfalling storms.....better you expect 100 and get 50 than expect 50 and get 100....

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1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

The winds aloft will still be screaming though at 850 and it wont be that unusual for them to mix down so you can have sustained 30 mph winds and still gust way up to 60-80....its common with well organized landfalling storms.....better you expect 100 and get 50 than expect 50 and get 100....

Right I was just confused why Wral was saying gusts 30-40 mph here. Not sustained. But gusts. 

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3 minutes ago, Regan said:

Right I was just confused why Wral was saying gusts 30-40 mph here. Not sustained. But gusts. 

That map they showed was based off the weird south Euro run entirely 

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Yes, go by the NWS. They may change those graphics in a day or two to adjust to changing information. They are also in lock step with the NHC. They only change incrementally. If the actual data and the models continue to show a more southern solution, they will adjust as we go through the next 2 days.

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