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NCSNOW

Hurricane Florence

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4 minutes ago, wake4est said:

They just posted it, seemingly implying it was the recent run.

Its based on Euro data from last run, the official NHC track is right of this a good bit the center would move on a line from Jacksonville to Goldsboro to RDU

e1.thumb.png.c0eed221744db8c876daaaf5c41cddfa.png

 

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5 minutes ago, weatherbubba said:

That FV3 version of the GFS does have what appears to be a more realistic track than the GFS model.  The barometric

pressures are like night and day compared to the GFS.  I think that might be on the right trail when all is said and done.

We'll have to see if the eastward movement on the last Euro run continues.  If it does, we might have something here.

Fv3 is a horrible model period!

good luck to everyone on the coast!

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2 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Its based on Euro data from last run, the official NHC track is right of this a good bit the center would move on a line from Jacksonville to Goldsboro to RDU

e1.thumb.png.c0eed221744db8c876daaaf5c41cddfa.png

 

I also have no idea how good the Euro's wind gust maps are. The sustained winds map is in the 30-50 mph range for comparison.

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3 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

I also have no idea how good the Euro's wind gust maps are. The sustained winds map is in the 30-50 mph range for comparison.

FWIW They were fairly accurate for NE GA during Irma but that's the only time I've used them much. Probably a touch overdone but no surprise there.

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I’ll be honest, at this point I am more stressed and concerned than excited.  Don’t get me wrong, I like a good sustained wind about as much as anyone, just as long as it’s not on my house.  The real worry and I think at this point my house is ok, is the potential stall and biblical amounts of rain.  That’s a worst case scenario for emergency management, two disasters to deal with as opposed to one.  It would take 3-7 days for rain to empty into the sound, its not a fast process by any stretch and will greatly hamper reocervey efforts from the immediate storm.

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4 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

I also have no idea how good the Euro's wind gust maps are. The sustained winds map is in the 30-50 mph range for comparison.

well inland its gonna be like that....only the immediate eyewall or rem of it will see any kind of high end sustained winds......but the sustained to gust ratio is higher away from the center.....take Fran for instance at PGV our highest sustained wind was around 45 mph but we gusted to 110.....in Bertha sustained was 40 but we gusted to 90...

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5 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

I’ll be honest, at this point I am more stressed and concerned than excited.  Don’t get me wrong, I like a good sustained wind about as much as anyone, just as long as it’s not on my house.  The real worry and I think at this point my house is ok, is the potential stall and biblical amounts of rain.  That’s a worst case scenario for emergency management, two disasters to deal with as opposed to one.  It would take 3-7 days for rain to empty into the sound, its not a fast process by any stretch and will greatly hamper reocervey efforts from the immediate storm.

Indeed.  While seeing the 0z Euro precip totals for WNC was quite a breathtaking thing to see this morning, in reality I don't want to see that again on a model run.  I'll gladly take a nice soaking rain with some gusty winds on the west side.

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4 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

I’ll be honest, at this point I am more stressed and concerned than excited.  Don’t get me wrong, I like a good sustained wind about as much as anyone, just as long as it’s not on my house.  The real worry and I think at this point my house is ok, is the potential stall and biblical amounts of rain.  That’s a worst case scenario for emergency management, two disasters to deal with as opposed to one.  It would take 3-7 days for rain to empty into the sound, its not a fast process by any stretch and will greatly hamper reocervey efforts from the immediate storm.

Depends on track for us the current NHC track is bad enough we would be 30-40 miles from center on the N and E side not where you wanna be, any more shift to the east and we will be NE eyewall....really really don't wanna be there........could get some seriously high gust if that played out, look at what Irene did with 60-70's imagine 90-120 mph.

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7 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Depends on track for us the current NHC track is bad enough we would be 30-40 miles from center on the N and E side not where you wanna be, any more shift to the east and we will be NE eyewall....really really don't wanna be there........could get some seriously high gust if that played out, look at what Irene did with 60-70's imagine 90-120 mph.

Op Euro and GFS blend would be pretty close to a worst case scenario, I do like the FV3, which is pretty lock step with the Euro.  At this stage I would toss the ensembles within reason, still a tool but not something I would weight a landfall forecast on.  The TAB is a great tool and as long as it shows those steering currents break down ivo landfall, the comfidence it will slow down greatly is high, along with any late stage change in course.

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Position error at this range is still 100-150 miles, that’s absolute position as opposed to east - west, everywhere from MYR to HAT and even offshore is still within the track error.  Still a ways to go and ala Irma, Florence has by no means drawn her final card.

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5 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

Op Euro and GFS blend would be pretty close to a worst case scenario, I do like the FV3, which is pretty lock step with the Euro.  At this stage I would toss the ensembles within reason, still a tool but not something I would weight a landfall forecast on.  The TAB is a great tool and as long as it shows those steering currents break down ivo landfall, the comfidence it will slow down greatly is high, along with any late stage change in course.

HWRF is terrible for us.......6 hrs after landfall solidly in the north eyewall.....

hwrf_ref_06L_32.thumb.png.ad10aa89775204a869c9b0054a4c0548.png

 

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2 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

Position error at this range is still 100-150 miles, that’s absolute position as opposed to east - west, everywhere from MYR to HAT and even offshore is still within the track error.  Still a ways to go and ala Irma, Florence has by no means drawn her final card.

I would place the odds of the path moving a few ticks right slightly higher than to the left, at this point.

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3 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

HWRF is terrible for us.......6 hrs after landfall solidly in the north eyewall.....

hwrf_ref_06L_32.thumb.png.ad10aa89775204a869c9b0054a4c0548.png

 

That is horrible for me. I am in the eastern eyewall. See where 35N and 77W meet. That is approximately where I live.

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Hope this gets resolved real soon!!!

ational Weather Service RALEIGH NC
730 PM EDT Mon Sep 10 2018

...NOAA Weather Radio stations off the air...

The following NOAA Weather Radio stations serving portions of
central North Carolina are currently off the air due to a 
communications line problem. 

WWF-60, located at Buck Mountain and serving the southern
Piedmont on 162.425 MHZ.

WNG-597, located in Ellerbe and serving the southern
Piedmont, western Sandhills, and northeastern South Carolina on 
162.400 MHZ.

WNG-706, located in Garner and serving the eastern Piedmont and
central coastal plain on 162.450 MHZ.

WXL-59, located in Tarboro and serving the northern and central
coastal plain on 162.475 MHZ.

WXL-42, located in Greensboro and serving northwest North
Carolina and adjacent Virginia counties on 162.400 MHZ.

Technicians responsible for repair have been notified and are 
working to resolve the problem. We regret any inconvenience this 
may cause. 

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SC is already closing schools tomorrow. I guess better safe than sorry, but that seems a bit extreme.
Elizabeth City-Pasquotank Public Schools announced closures from Wednesday to Friday. I believe College of The Albemarle and Elizabeth City State University are doing the same thing.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

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Man, the HWRF would be bad for most of NC, southern VA, western NC/SC, and even into eastern Tenn. It just slowly moves east to west/SW through the state. Even at the end of its run (hour 126), the storm is sitting just south of Charlotte. Still raining...

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1 hour ago, WeatherNC said:

I’ll be honest, at this point I am more stressed and concerned than excited.  Don’t get me wrong, I like a good sustained wind about as much as anyone, just as long as it’s not on my house.  The real worry and I think at this point my house is ok, is the potential stall and biblical amounts of rain.  That’s a worst case scenario for emergency management, two disasters to deal with as opposed to one.  It would take 3-7 days for rain to empty into the sound, its not a fast process by any stretch and will greatly hamper reocervey efforts from the immediate storm.

Great too see some Long time posters show up.. 

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There is more uncertainty with this track than I prefer. The models all agree that this storm will slow down or stall, which is a forecasting nightmare. With the tropical wave in the Caribbean, uncertainty remains. Eastern and central NC looks to be hit hard with winds and flooding rain; however, I would not let my guard down west of 77 yet and in SC.

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2 minutes ago, SENC said:

WOW that was wrong & you know it.. 

Not being political here.. just a friendly mockery of his tweeting skills.

Take care down there.

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1 hour ago, Wow said:

Indeed.  While seeing the 0z Euro precip totals for WNC was quite a breathtaking thing to see this morning, in reality I don't want to see that again on a model run.  I'll gladly take a nice soaking rain with some gusty winds on the west side.

Sorry for the imby question, but how bad do you think it will get in our area? 

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2 minutes ago, WxJordan said:

There is more uncertainty with this track than I prefer. The models all agree that this storm will slow down or stall, which is a forecasting nightmare. With the tropical wave in the Caribbean, uncertainty remains. Eastern and central NC looks to be hit hard with winds and flooding rain; however, I would not let my guard down west of 77 yet and in SC.

Indeed.. there is still a good bit of complexity here to easily shift things 100 or more miles in either direction.  SC to VA are all equally in the crosshairs IMO

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4 minutes ago, Wow said:

Not being political here.. just a friendly mockery of his tweeting skills.

Take care down there.

Thank you Sir, hope too post Obs & video..

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1 minute ago, SimeonNC said:

Sorry for the imby question, but how bad do you think it will get in our area? 

Obviously it depends.  This is a very difficult storm to model with it potentially stalling out.  Depending where it drifts will determine a lot where the biggest rainfalls occur, obviously.  Wind-wise, a northern SC hit would likely be the worst case.

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