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NCSNOW

Hurricane Florence

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2 minutes ago, Solak said:

@wcnc 4m4 minutes ago

HURRICANE FLORENCE: Flushing phase of lane reversal will begin at 8 a.m. tomorrow in Columbia as SCDOT prepares to reverse lanes of I-26 between Columbia and Charleston. They will flush from Columbia to the I-526 interchange in Charleston.

 
 
 
 
 
 

Huge mess coming tomorrow. Nobody's employers were contacted ahead of time so it's a mad scramble everywhere to figure out exactly where things are being closed and whether people need to come in to work. My wife is supposed to come in according to her manager (works at a doctor's office), but it's unclear whether she would actually be able to get home or not!

 

Details may be coming at the Charleston County press conference at 4.

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26 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

EPS, FWIW:

eps_florence.png

Wow that is a lot of spread between one model's ensemble members. There are even a few GFS like runs in there too.

Edit: That was yesterday's run. Spread does look more reasonable today.

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6 minutes ago, thunderwolf said:

Wow that is a lot of spread between one model's ensemble members. There are even a few GFS like runs in there too.

Yes it is a pretty good spread. But the tightest clusters appear to be between the SC/NC border and Morehead City. Right now that looks like the are to bet on for landfall. Of course, where and what direction she goes after hitting land has a big implication on how bad things will be inland. 

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3 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

that is yesterday's run

Wow, good call. I don't know how to post the image of today's run, but here's a link https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL06_2018091012_ECENS_0-120h_large.png

Spread does seem a little more reasonable with today's 12z than the one I had erroneously mentioned earlier.

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7 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

Point stands though it's still a large spread at 84 hours. 

Yes the landfall probability distribution seems reasonable to me. <10% chance of OTS, about 10% of moving into GA, 20% chance Charleston area, 60% from about MYB to MHC.

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So last year Irma was as big and bad of a hurricane we had seen in many many years. Would the Florence threat be considered greater now? Cat 4 winds and surge over a much more populated area with exceptional rainfall and inland flooding.

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2 minutes ago, shaggy said:

So last year Irma was as big and bad of a hurricane we had seen in many many years. Would the Florence threat be considered greater now? Cat 4 winds and surge over a much more populated area with exceptional rainfall and inland flooding.

Yea this is bad, and it's not like usual where we get a sheared out destabilized mess. This is something extraordinary 

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4 minutes ago, tramadoc said:

They said they moved it easy, but a bit west of model consensus.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 

Yeah, I’m going to follow their track for now.  Models shift every 6 hours and it does “me” no good to follow each and every shift. Not sure of the eye wall diameter in nm but just south of New River inlet atm.

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Euro,Ukie and FV3(3 highest performing models)look pretty close now,think we're close to our track now.

Euro with a big shift east getting in line with the other two,its stiil a tick too far west while the Ukie is still a tick too far east in my opinion.

Have to say the FV3 has been really good on this storm so far.

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5 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Euro,Ukie and FV3(3 highest performing models)look pretty close now,think we're close to our track now.

Euro with a big shift east getting in line with the other two,its stiil a tick too far west while the Ukie is still a tick too far east in my opinion.

Have to say the FV3 has been really good on this storm so far.

Its sort of hard to sit here and fathom what we could be facing. Possibility of feet of rain and hurricane force gusts from Raleigh to the coast? No way that can happen right?

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8 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Euro,Ukie and FV3(3 highest performing models)look pretty close now,think we're close to our track now.

Euro with a big shift east getting in line with the other two,its stiil a tick too far west while the Ukie is still a tick too far east in my opinion.

Have to say the FV3 has been really good on this storm so far.

I didn’t see the Euro shifting way east. Especially not it’s ensembles. 

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2 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Its sort of hard to sit here and fathom what we could be facing. Possibility of feet of rain and hurricane force gusts from Raleigh to the coast? No way that can happen right?

Let's hope it doesn't happen - but things are looking grim.

 

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One major takeaway from the 5PM discussion.

None of the guidance suggest that Florence has peaked in intensity,
and this is supported by a continuation of a low-shear environment,
and even warmer waters over the next 36 hours.  Thus, the intensity
forecast is raised from the previous one, bringing Florence close
to category 5 strength tomorrow. Near landfall, the vertical wind
shear could increase, along with the increasing likelihood of
eyewall cycles.  While the intensity forecast shows some weakening
of the maximum winds near landfall, the wind field is expected to
grow with time, which increases the storm surge and inland wind
threats.  The bottom line is that there is high confidence that
Florence will be a large and extremely dangerous hurricane,
regardless of its exact intensity.
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So since this is going to be approaching at a rather odd angle for the area (more e to w than s to n) does that increase surge potential since it basically can work up a long fetch of surge?

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Just now, KPITSnow said:

So since this is going to be approaching at a rather odd angle for the area (more e to w than s to n) does that increase surge potential since it basically can work up a long fetch of surge?

Yep and with it slowing the east flow over the sounds will just lock in and not allow it to recede.....the river here will run backwards and then the rain runoff will try to go downstream and meet the surge tide and it will just be a mess.......until the surge runs out the rivers cant drain.

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Good answer, Downeast. I'm sure you've seen that from previous storms. I've seen it to some extent when I lived in KDH and had the sounds back up, then have to deal with the return flow with the backside winds.

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