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NCSNOW

Hurricane Florence

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2 minutes ago, mjwise said:

I don't think the GFS models cold water upwelling or if it does it doesn't do it very well. Cat 5 comes to a complete halt just east of the OBX and maintains Cat 5 strength for over 48 hours? I don't think so.

Not sure if this has been posted yet...?  

 

 

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1 minute ago, Solak said:

Pressure 942.8

 

Wonder what the furthest north cat 5 has ever been recorded? Not saying she gets there but man she is bombing out.

If she expands her wind field the surge will be the worst ever recorded for NC. Depending on stall location somewhere on the inner banks could also set some records.

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9 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Wonder what the furthest north cat 5 has ever been recorded? Not saying she gets there but man she is bombing out.

If she expands her wind field the surge will be the worst ever recorded for NC. Depending on stall location somewhere on the inner banks could also set some records.

Pretty sure this would be the farthest north if she gets there.....

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12z GFS hour 6 has a pressure at 961 when it is already in the 940's. 12z Icon at the beginning of the run is in the 970's. seems that NO model is handling the rapid strengthening of the storm anywhere near accurately. Gonna shock me if it doesn't hit cat 5 by this evening.

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23 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Wonder what the furthest north cat 5 has ever been recorded? Not saying she gets there but man she is bombing out.

If she expands her wind field the surge will be the worst ever recorded for NC. Depending on stall location somewhere on the inner banks could also set some records.

Cat 5 tracks...

SfRRaVS.gif

 

Cat 4 & 5 tracks...

aMkVghK.gif

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2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

UK a little NE of the last Euro run. Maybe end up somewhere in the middle of those. 

Better chance this misses east than hits SC IMO....only the Euro and HWRF are left of the current NHC track every other model is right......THE FV3/Ukie track is hard to argue and right where the consensus is.....

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2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

I think somewhere between Cape Fear and Morehead City is a good bet for landfall.

yep has been for the last 2 days.....models have never been more than just east of Hatteras and the SC/NC border for several days now....its kinda remarkable actually how clustered overall the models have been.....remember Lookout to Cape Fear is only 90 miles and Hatteras is another 30 so for all the models to more or less be in a 120 mile stretch of coast for this long is rare thing. 

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So that's not a ton different, but you have to say it is caving to the others a little.  A couple more cycles like today, and SC should be completely out of the woods.

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2 minutes ago, griteater said:

Euro out to 87 hits Wilmington....was N Myrtle Beach last run

It almost has to go north the models are really locking in on ILM to MHX in this range and I suspect if there is a trend from here it will be east not west.....

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