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NCSNOW

Hurricane Florence

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What time frame do you feel the confidence level will be pretty certain of her track? I have elderly parents in the Triad that I need to prepare to move if she's indeed coming this way.   I haven't been able to read much on the forums this week so I've quickly glanced through the comments this morning and it appears the OTS possibility has dominshed to basically none. 

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32 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

My worst fear for WNC just happened with the Euro run. And then the Euro ensembles cluster from Charleston to Myrtle makes it even worse. With the flow enhancement, some mountain and foothill locations would see 4 feet of rain. Wow. 

This is a big part of why I don't think it's as settled as the main board chatter implies. People seem to be looking at the line the model spits out instead of its overall spread or clustering. Same thing happened last year until late in the game.

 

I'm obviously not a met, but statistician is part of my job title and that's the perspective I look at these things from.

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My parents, ages 80 and 84, live in New Bern NC.  My gut is telling me to get out of there today and come visit up here in Long Island until this storm goes by.

At what point is a mandatory evacuation issued?   I want them out before that.

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5 minutes ago, Regulator23 said:

My parents, ages 80 and 84, live in New Bern NC.  My gut is telling me to get out of there today and come visit up here in Long Island until this storm goes by.

At what point is a mandatory evacuation issued?   I want them out before that.

I wouldn't waste anytime.  Once the mandate is put in place it will be chaotic!! Someone else can better answer the timeframe of typical mandates.  

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6z GFS says that, yes, you should evacuate your parents immediately.  This poster agrees, thinking "better safe than sorry."  

I wish we knew where to take them, though.  Maybe DC.

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25 minutes ago, Regulator23 said:

My parents, ages 80 and 84, live in New Bern NC.  My gut is telling me to get out of there today and come visit up here in Long Island until this storm goes by.

At what point is a mandatory evacuation issued?   I want them out before that.

Based on track and speed, Man. Evacs, could start Tues, but def Wed, IMO 

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16 minutes ago, Justicebork said:

6z GFS says that, yes, you should evacuate your parents immediately.  This poster agrees, thinking "better safe than sorry."  

I wish we knew where to take them, though.  Maybe DC.

I wouldn't go that direction. Think more west beyond the mountains.

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Good Morning, I see the models have pretty much held their own overnight with the GFS, CMC and some

of the others taking the hurricane near the Pamilco Sound and stalling it and the Euro tracking it across

the state from landfall near the NC/SC border towards Charlotte and falling apart over Western NC.  Both

tracks are disasters for North Carolina and have me very worried,  I noticed some 40+ rainfall amounts

for the Charlotte area if this verifies.  All we can say and do is prepare for the worst and hope for the best!

 

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With the crazy QPF forecasted upstate..

Maybe I'm overthinking this...

Though If I recall...  Hugo & Floyd had "Officials" per se kinda worried about "Dam Failures, (Especially on South Carolina side of the NC/SC line)..

Yes I'm including the Raleigh  Triangle in My thoughts..

There are some pretty Large Lakes & Reservoirs up there, (Earthen Dams capped with Concrete)..

With the CRAZY amount(s) of QPF forecasted, What is the consensus here of A VERY REAL possibility of one or more Large Dam Failures happening up there? Like Jordan Lake, Lake Wylee et al? 

I imagine lotsa "friends" downstream would be curious.. 

I mean those "amounts" are just Biblical… !!! 

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1 hour ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

My worst fear for WNC just happened with the Euro run. And then the Euro ensembles cluster from Charleston to Myrtle makes it even worse. With the flow enhancement, some mountain and foothill locations would see 4 feet of rain. Wow. 

This was my greatest fear as well for us in the western Carolinas. It will be interesting to see if other models trend toward the EURO today since the EURO does have support from its ensembles.

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Absolute nightmare scenario for western N.C. I love weather but there’s zero part of me that wants to lose power for weeks and be in a Houston type of situation with flooding. 

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Just now, Brick Tamland said:

So, the GFS comes in line with the Euro, and then the Euro goes further south into SC. Madness.

But the 6z HMON is coming in north. Looks like an initial hit just north of Cape Lookout. The 6z HWRF is slightly SW of it previous run at hour 75. Looks like it could be a Wilmington hit. Bottom line, there's going to be a lot of small adjustments all the way to go-time. And even then, the storm won't do exactly what is modeled. 

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So do we think this will be a blend of the models and come in around Topsail or Jacksonville.

Looking great on sat images and starting to speed up it looks like.

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5 minutes ago, shaggy said:

So do we think this will be a blend of the models and come in around Topsail or Jacksonville.

Looking great on sat images and starting to speed up it looks like.

Honestly I don't know. The best bet for us is to follow the NHC track/cone. They do look at the models but also put their years of meteorology to work to make the best guess at where this thing will eventually go. 

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1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Is DC/NoVA not a good place to evacute to?

You know how these hurricanes work; you could go to DC and it ends up affecting that area more than ours. Might be a good time to visit Disney World. I think that area is safe. 

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I know we've heard the name Hugo a few times with this one, but if the Euro is anywhere near correct, this would be far, far worse than Hugo for WNC with the flooding.

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1 minute ago, Wow said:

I know we've heard the name Hugo a few times with this one, but if the Euro is anywhere near correct, this would be far, far worse than Hugo for WNC with the flooding.

Yeah. I think the winds would actually not be as big of an issue because she's just so slow. People forget that Hugo made it to Charlotte six hours after landfall. 

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3 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

You know how these hurricanes work; you could go to DC and it ends up affecting that area more than ours. Might be a good time to visit Disney World. I think that area is safe. 

Disney land, not Disney world. 

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1 minute ago, Queencitywx said:

Yeah. I think the winds would actually not be as big of an issue because she's just so slow. People forget that Hugo made it to Charlotte six hours after landfall. 

I was in Charlotte for Hugo. Went to bed thinking I'd get up the next morning to see what it was doing. By 4am, had high winds and rain. Shortly after daybreak, 30-40 mph winds and clearing skies. I was amazed with the rapidity it moved through the area.

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11 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Is DC/NoVA not a good place to evacute to?

From Western NC, I'd go Nashville.

From SC, I'd go FL.

From Coastal NC, DC would be an ok start, but could have more driving to do.

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lol....man that latest HWRF run would swamp western NC. The storm comes on shore at the SC/NC boarder and then slowly runs the boarder for two days. It focuses the heaviest precip on the western Piedmont and the mountains. No precip totals from the maps but it looks to be worse than what the euro is showing (..from my untrained eyes). 

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