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NCSNOW

Hurricane Florence

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8 minutes ago, Solak said:

5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 9
Location: 24.4°N 57.0°W
Moving: W at 7 mph
Min pressure: 975 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph

Longer she goes west, the more interior NC should be worried.

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13 minutes ago, Solak said:

Possibly getting to 150mph???

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 24.4N  57.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 24.6N  58.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 25.1N  60.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 25.9N  63.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 27.0N  66.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
 72H  12/1800Z 30.3N  72.6W  130 KT 150 MPH
 96H  13/1800Z 33.5N  77.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
120H  14/1800Z 35.0N  79.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND

That 140 is practically onshore thats rough right there.....we are talking Hugo/Andrew/Charley type territory there.....seriously rare company. 

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4 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Euro has 33 inches of rain forecasted with Florence, Expect those totals to be higher in those mountains, 3-4 feet of rain some places in coming 10 days

This will be almost Biblical if the Euro verifies.  We joked about harvey when the Euro was showing it, im not joking now :( 

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This has potential to blow fran away from all aspects. This will be a massive blow ala hugo and hazel on the coast/interior wind wise if projections are right, with floyd or Harvey flooding potential.

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While I live in TX north of Dallas now, I was in Rocky Mount, NC area for Floyd and Goldsboro for Fran.  They were bad.   Also, it doesn’t take a huuricane force winds to mess you up either.  In Rocky Mount, we got 60ish winds from Irene but they were sustained for something like 9 straight hours.   My neighborhood looked like a war zone.    Just a couple of years ago Matthew flooded Rocky Mount the same way Floyd did.  Floyd was suppposed to have been a 500 year flood.    

You guys be safe!!

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  • There's just no way we see Harvey-like flooding in this right? People keep mentioning it like it's possible. Didn't Harvey have totals in the 40-50 inch range in many spots? I don't see anything showing that right now other than maybe isolated spots. 

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Really sad. I went and ate on the island today and it was like a funeral in the restaurant. Everyone was rightfully scared. It's a sad situation all around. I know weather enthusiasts love this, but i now see it from a local perspective and it's depressing. I hope it curves out to see :( 

7 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

This has potential to blow fran away from all aspects. This will be a massive blow ala hugo and hazel on the coast/interior wind wise if projections are right, with floyd or Harvey flooding potential.

 

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9 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

This has potential to blow fran away from all aspects. This will be a massive blow ala hugo and hazel on the coast/interior wind wise if projections are right, with floyd or Harvey flooding potential.

Seems they weaken it pretty quickly. My expectations of hurricane force winds have gone down quite a bit over in Greenville with the angle of landfall and rapid weakening.

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2 minutes ago, Chattownsnow said:
  • There's just no way we see Harvey-like flooding in this right? People keep mentioning it like it's possible. Didn't Harvey have totals in the 40-50 inch range in many spots? I don't see anything showing that right now other than maybe isolated spots. 

20-30” that is shown, would be as close to biblical as most will ever see!

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17 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

This has potential to blow fran away from all aspects. This will be a massive blow ala hugo and hazel on the coast/interior wind wise if projections are right, with floyd or Harvey flooding potential.

This may have Hugo-like qualities as it may be pushing well inland with a more westerly than northerly path.  This isn't like your usual storm hitting NC from a recurve path which keeps effects close to the coast.  But unlike Hugo, this will be slowing down and could turn this into more of a flooding issue rather than the wind.

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Just now, Wow said:

This may have Hugo-like qualities as it may be pushing well inland with a more westerly than northerly path.  This isn't like your usual storm hitting NC from a recurve path which keeps effects close to the coast.  But unlike Hugo, this will be slowing down and could turn this into more of a flooding issue rather than the wind.

Do you feel further SW corrections will happen on the GFS?

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gfs comes in sw and slows it down again.  have to think it may still be a bit too far N but it moves towards the euro for sure.  big to see as it has been an obx landfall the last 6-7 runs or so.

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1 minute ago, JoshM said:

Do you feel further SW corrections will happen on the GFS?

More likely than not but could be biased after watching Irma continue to defy model consensus and keep pushing west.

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4 minutes ago, Wow said:

This may have Hugo-like qualities as it may be pushing well inland with a more westerly than northerly path.  This isn't like your usual storm hitting NC from a recurve path which keeps effects close to the coast.  But unlike Hugo, this will be slowing down and could turn this into more of a flooding issue rather than the wind.

I agree with this.  I would only change your last phrase to, more of a flooding issue in addition to the winds.

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Joe Bastardi Retweeted Joe Bastardi

First ideas on flooding with this were last Thur/Fri but worry was centered more in Va to Pa. In any case honing in now a bit further south,

Joe Bastardi added,

Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi
Since Wednesday we have had this going inland over NC and then crawling into VA. Should this turn out correct, this is likely to be the worst natural disaster on record for Carolinas into VA Major hit combined with 3-4 feet of rain in some places over 3-4 day period.
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What do you all think the tornado threat would be with this system? 

On a side note, I yalls advice and I'm flying back Wednesday evening instead. 

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18z continues with the stall but no it has it sitting over eastern nc instead of the outerbanks. looks like the gfs is starting to fall in line with other guidance. it has a history playing catching in this time frame. If everything verifies as it stands now its going to be a wild ride for alot of nc. 

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So we are going to need to leave for a pre-planned Disney vacation on the 19th or 20th at the latest. Do you think roads will be passable even if we have to take hours worth of detours? Obviously it's impossible to say what roads might be out and where, but generally speaking...we are behind Duke Raleigh hospital in Raleigh. Would have planned on 440-40-95. I know during Matthew I95 got flooded and closed for awhile (don't remember how long). I have only lived in this neighborhood for 3 months, so I don't know how it behaves in flood situations. There are a LOT of trees in the neighborhood, though. 

 

This is a very important trip, for 6 months I have been planning on proposing to my girlfriend and surprising her with her parents flying in from Puerto Rico. 

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23 minutes ago, NCsandhills said:

So we are going to need to leave for a pre-planned Disney vacation on the 19th or 20th at the latest. Do you think roads will be passable even if we have to take hours worth of detours? Obviously it's impossible to say what roads might be out and where, but generally speaking...we are behind Duke Raleigh hospital in Raleigh. Would have planned on 440-40-95. I know during Matthew I95 got flooded and closed for awhile (don't remember how long). I have only lived in this neighborhood for 3 months, so I don't know how it behaves in flood situations. There are a LOT of trees in the neighborhood, though. 

 

This is a very important trip, for 6 months I have been planning on proposing to my girlfriend and surprising her with her parents flying in from Puerto Rico. 

Honestly, I think it's too early to say what roads would be like 10 days from now.

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