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Hurricane Florence


NCSNOW
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2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Concerned about tornado spin ups in the triangle this afternoon/evening. We'll be in the right quad later today and after some daytime heating/instability, will be in the prime location.

Everything coming in off the ocean is spinning right now....probably going to be a problem today and even tomorrow

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2 hours ago, calculus1 said:

Brad P Update for his viewing area, in particular:

 

Def one of the best if not the best in Charlotte but I question his wind map in that video.  I wonder if that map was supposed to be wind speed and not gusts like he mentioned.  Only say that because it showed us maxing around 39 mph (gusts according to him) but we have officially at the Monroe airport had gusts in the low to mid 30’s all day today already. 

93784F08-6A1B-4747-B7C7-6E9241C866B6.jpeg

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GFS cut back on the totals for people in the W.Piedmont/foothills on this last run.The NAM looks similar and is a bit less.

It brings heavy rain in around hour 38 and lasts to about hour 56,with lighter rain on either end for a bit so it pours for at least 18 hours.

Solid 4''-8'' looks ok right now with isolated 10'' lollipops possible.

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3 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

GFS cut back on the totals for people in the W.Piedmont/foothills on this last run.The NAM looks similar and is a bit less.

It brings heavy rain in around hour 38 and lasts to about hour 56,with lighter rain on either end for a bit so it pours for at least 18 hours.

Solid 4''-8'' looks ok right now with isolated 10'' lollipops possible.

Does this include the Triad region?

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38 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

Def one of the best if not the best in Charlotte but I question his wind map in that video.  I wonder if that map was supposed to be wind speed and not gusts like he mentioned.  Only say that because it showed us maxing around 39 mph (gusts according to him) but we have officially at the Monroe airport had gusts in the low to mid 30’s all day today already. 

93784F08-6A1B-4747-B7C7-6E9241C866B6.jpeg

Brad is simply amazing. I have never seen a met who is as dedicated and explains weather as he does. Winds have definitely been a bit gustier than I would have anticipated by this time. I wouldn't be surprised to see gusts over 50 MPH, especially tomorrow as the storm moves closer. I got a feeling we will be seeing lots of trees down by Sunday evening. Given that Charlotte could be looking at 1,000-year rainfall event. GSP even bumped the totals to over 10 inches with isolated 15 in some places near and east of I-77. 

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27 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

Latest storm total rainfall forecast from NWS GSP for their forecast area.  So, far, I have 0.00 inch.  :D

 

That seems a bit overdone IMO.  I may be wrong but I think Brad P's forecast of 4-8 is more reasonable for CLT.  Lines up with GFS products.  I'll need to check but I don't know if any models showed a foot of rain for CLT yet? 

fv3p_apcpn_eus_24.png

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1 minute ago, SnowNiner said:

That seems a bit overdone IMO.  I may be wrong but I think Brad P's forecast of 4-8 is more reasonable for CLT.  Lines up with GFS products.  I'll need to check but I don't know if any models showed a foot of rain for CLT yet? 

fv3p_apcpn_eus_24.png

Euro has for a while now. Seems like U.K. did? Can’t remember on U.K.  

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3 minutes ago, JoshM said:

Euro has Hurricane Force gusts into the upstate of SC, didn't expect that!

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018091412_48_480_379.png.34c76fca2968ad72ea7deb1b638d8b67.png

It’s also showing the farthest South path, that’s what it would take to get those gusts, if they are even possible!? Looks like the “remnant”eyeis S of CAE and heading for Augusta National!

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23 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

The 18z NAM continues to cut these rainfall totals in NW NC,3''-5'' across there on this run with a big cutoff just SE of CLT where 9'' plus are.Might be a bit light but we'll see.

Carry on.

3k NAM looks like it actually increased over NW NC?

qc0G151.png

 

vs.

 

37bEyfB.png

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