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Hurricane Florence


NCSNOW
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1 minute ago, GunBlade said:

Latest graphic on current wind field, tropical wind percentage and arrival time.  Looks to get quite windy here tonight.  Already getting gusts to low 30’s here. 

 

4AB70B04-DEC3-495E-81C7-44A36B01E2ED.png

Thats pretty accurate we gusted 50-60 all night nothing to bad.....takes more than that to drop trees around here lol.....there are a few Bradford Pears mangled etc but over all we have do ok its probably on par with Matthew and considerably less than Irene wind wise....

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Yea our neighborhood just cut down a dozen or so Bradford pears proactively this past year after the snow we got last winter took out a few.  They’re not built for the weather we get here. Otherwise lots of pine and hardwood trees that will be fine if the soil doesn’t give out.  

Precip totals also look to be down a couple inches around here and little less overall compared to prior runs.  Showed getting close to 15 here on some prior runs.  More like 7-9 now on most models which seems reasonable. 

F6A40C6E-720A-4D99-BB21-9D13B0B868FD.png

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1 hour ago, NCSNOW said:

Official highest gust at Wilmington is 105mph. Off to the southwest she goes, probably get back over water in Brunswick county.  Bad news for Holden Beach, my family vacation spot for 25 years straight.

We've had a home there for the past 40 years. I so hope that it makes it through this.

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1 hour ago, GunBlade said:

Yea our neighborhood just cut down a dozen or so Bradford pears proactively this past year after the snow we got last winter took out a few.  They’re not built for the weather we get here. Otherwise lots of pine and hardwood trees that will be fine if the soil doesn’t give out.  

Precip totals also look to be down a couple inches around here and little less overall compared to prior runs.  Showed getting close to 15 here on some prior runs.  More like 7-9 now on most models which seems reasonable. 

F6A40C6E-720A-4D99-BB21-9D13B0B868FD.png

The NWS in GSP says 10-15 inches across the CLT metro. Either way that's a lot of rain. They seem to be going pretty conservative with winds though. 

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19 minutes ago, Snovary said:

from crankywxguy

DnDd2DIU4AA1QQK.jpeg

Just a note that this is a bias chart for wind speed, but the verification numbers for the storm track show the Euro as the worst performing model as well for the 4-5 day forecast (of the major models).  Just thinking thru the model in runs in my head though, I feel like the Euro latched onto some of the better ideas with this storm.  When the GFS and UKMet were stuck up in the Outer Banks, the Euro had runs with it in SE NC or down in SC.  As is usually the case, a model blend is usually best.  You can get the verification charts here - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/

The Euro did bump north last night, with it falling more in line with the Hurr Center track.

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It really did. Almost like its rolling down the coast there just north of Carolina Beach. Learned last night an old friend was riding it out at Carolina Beach. Hope he is OK. Might actually get into the eye.
Me as well, my wife mentioned his daughter and I knew who it was then, as I went to school with her. She showed me some of the stuff he had put on Facebook. Hope he is OK as well.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

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9 minutes ago, griteater said:

Just a note that this is a bias chart for wind speed, but the verification numbers for the storm track show the Euro as the worst performing model as well for the 4-5 day forecast (of the major models).  Just thinking thru the model in runs in my head though, I feel like the Euro latched onto some of the better ideas with this storm.  When the GFS and UKMet were stuck up in the Outer Banks, the Euro had runs with it in SE NC or down in SC.  As is usually the case, a model blend is usually best.  You can get the verification charts here - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/

The Euro did bump north last night, with it falling more in line with the Hurr Center track.

Thanks for the explanation Grit. That helps. Euro is known to overdo wind speeds, kinda like the NAM is (or was) known to overdo QPF. Euro seems best at long range positions.

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Philippe Papin has a model floater setup for his maps of the high resolution HRRR - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/hrrr.php.  At 2AM tonight, the eye has only moved to a position just west of N Myrtle Beach.  The map here is showing the radar reflectivity at 2AM and the total rainfall over the 18 hr period of the model run

bRZ9BNK.gif

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1000 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...EYE OF HURRICANE FLORENCE STILL WOBBLING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD
NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

NOAA Doppler weather radar data and surface observations indicate
that the center of the eye of Hurricane Florence has been wobbling
southwestward near the coast of southeastern North Carolina.

A buoy operated by the CORMP program southeast of Wilmington, North
Carolina recently reported a wind gust of 76 mph (122 km/h).  A
station operated by Weatherflow at Federal Point, North Carolina,
recently reported a pressure of 961.0 mb (28.38 in).

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 78.0W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 245 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES
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