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Hurricane Florence


NCSNOW
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12 minutes ago, shaggy said:

She still has the gulfstream over the next 6-12 hours per the 11am disco and some models showed her strengthening during that crossing. This is also VERY interesting part of the disco to me.


The subtropical ridge to
the northeast and east of Florence is now well-established between
Bermuda and the U.S. mid-Atlantic region and extends westward into
Virginia and the central Appalachians. This large-scale feature is
expected to keep the hurricane moving northwestward today, followed
by a turn toward the west at a much slower speed on Friday 

Never bought the hard south turn; and still don't.  Think she drags right across the Sandhills of NC

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14 minutes ago, btownheel said:

Never bought the hard south turn; and still don't.  Think she drags right across the Sandhills of NC

It appears that she is already moving more to the west. Almost every model has her moving W then WSW. Now she may not make "hard south turn", but it's hard to go against modeling when there seems to be a general consensus. 

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3 minutes ago, ryan1234 said:

It appears that she is already moving more to the west. Almost every model has her moving W then WSW. Now she may not make "hard south turn, but it's hard to go against modeling when there seems to be a general consensus. 

yeah, a lot of wishcasting it into northern nc it seems. literally every model shows a nw drift followed by a west southwest turn.

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2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

yeah, a lot of wishcasting it into northern nc it seems. literally every model shows a nw drift followed by a west southwest turn.

Problem is she has consistently been on the very northern edge of the guidance and damn near left the cone yesterday. I posted their disco about continuing it NW today due to the "well established" ridge. 

She may putthe brakes on and go due wnw right now but she hasn't done it yet and each hour that she moves NW puts her having to make a sharper turn. This could have large implications into central and eastern NC.

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9 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Problem is she has consistently been on the very northern edge of the guidance and damn near left the cone yesterday. I posted their disco about continuing it NW today due to the "well established" ridge. 

She may putthe brakes on and go due wnw right now but she hasn't done it yet and each hour that she moves NW puts her having to make a sharper turn. This could have large implications into central and eastern NC.

per the most recent recon pass the center as already begun the turn.

recon_AF302-1406A-FLORENCE.png

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13 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

GFS, to me, ran the system in too high imo... I think it dives down further into SC than that last run showed because it is really slowing down now

Let me guess,  you’re from SC!   Any scientific proof or just wish casting?  I had a post deleted yesterday for wishcasting it to you!  Even NHC said they had no confidence after landfall.   That said I hope it’s all to SC.

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Just now, rjtysinger said:

Let me guess,  you’re from SC!   Any scientific proof or just wish casting?  I had a post deleted yesterday for wishcasting it to you!

The center blob looks like it is moving almost due west right now, that plus slowing in forward speed might kick it further down south-southwest west. This is going to be a long day and night for everybody, so even nowcasting is wishcasting.

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2 minutes ago, rjtysinger said:

Let me guess,  you’re from SC!   Any scientific proof or just wish casting?  I had a post deleted yesterday for wishcasting it to you!

Can we stop it with this tomfoolery already? You're from NC, obviously. And they aren't wishcasting. The GFS has sorta been an outliner this whole time. It's hard to go against the Euro and most the hurricane modeling guidance. Not the mention the NHC. 

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Just now, ryan1234 said:

Can we stop it with this tomfoolery already? You're from NC, obviously. And they aren't wishcasting. The GFS has sorta been an outliner this whole time. It's hard to go against the Euro and most the hurricane modeling guidance. Not the mention the NHC. 

Yes I’ll stop.  The big difference is I don’t want it.  Back to it ladies and gents.

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7 minutes ago, ryan1234 said:

Can we stop it with this tomfoolery already? You're from NC, obviously. And they aren't wishcasting. The GFS has sorta been an outliner this whole time. It's hard to go against the Euro and most the hurricane modeling guidance. Not the mention the NHC. 

Not only that, but the 12z GFS now takes Florence SW along the coast and into the Georgetown, SC area.  After that it takes it across central SC to Clemson in the far southwestern part of the upstate.  That's a significant movement toward the Euro idea of a strong southern component before the drift west.  We'll see what the Euro has to say in an hour, but at this time, the two models are only 75 miles apart in the path to the west, with the GFS being further north.  If the GFS is correct, NC gets most of the rain.  If the Euro is correct, SC and parts of NC get most of the rain.  My feeling as someone 200 miles from the ocean is that the Euro has performed extremely well on Florence and has smelled out the wrinkles better, so I'm riding that model til the end.

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