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Hurricane Florence


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NWS RaleighVerified account @NWSRaleigh 28m28 minutes ago

 
 

An overview of the impacts we expect from #Florence across central NC. Impacts from high winds & flash flooding are extreme across the Coastal Plain, lessening the farther NW you go across the region. However, everyone should prepare for at least some impacts to life & property.Dm7QZGSXcAcyhKa.jpg

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I really wouldn't put too much stock into whatever the "futurecast" or "RPM" or whatever the weather model news stations show... We use it because WSI, the company most stations (WRAL for example) runs that model and makes it super easy to manipulate that model into easy to understand graphics. Personally I hate it. WSI doesn't offer anything with the NAM 3km, which I would use. Point being, I would absolutely take anything the RPM is saying with a grain of salt and instead use hurricane models and globals.

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12 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

I really wouldn't put too much stock into whatever the "futurecast" or "RPM" or whatever the weather model news stations show... We use it because WSI, the company most stations (WRAL for example) runs that model and makes it super easy to manipulate that model into easy to understand graphics. Personally I hate it. WSI doesn't offer anything with the NAM 3km, which I would use. Point being, I would absolutely take anything the RPM is saying with a grain of salt and instead use hurricane models and globals.

We must have a good one, the local channel I like shows the Euro and GFS models along with others sometimes and explains the difference between them.

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15 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

I really wouldn't put too much stock into whatever the "futurecast" or "RPM" or whatever the weather model news stations show... We use it because WSI, the company most stations (WRAL for example) runs that model and makes it super easy to manipulate that model into easy to understand graphics. Personally I hate it. WSI doesn't offer anything with the NAM 3km, which I would use. Point being, I would absolutely take anything the RPM is saying with a grain of salt and instead use hurricane models and globals.

Problem is 99.9999% of folk cannot and will be basing their decisions off whatever local adfiliate they watch. <Shrugs> That’s problematic. This may be an issue with some stations, but I don’t think fisher would steer us wrong if he knew better and I know he’s looking at all models. 

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20 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

She does look rough at the moment.....would rather this be her 10 hrs from landfall, to much time left for her to get her act together.....

A lot of people expected her to be a strong cat 4 or even a cat 5 by now. Let's hope the weakening continues. At her size it would take while to wind down unless more dry air gets entrained in her.

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For the umpteenth time today Florence is trying to figure out how to eye wall.

Don't know how big of an issue dry air really is, we'd probably see more examples of outflow arcs racing away from the center on VIS if it was reallllllyyyyy a big problem. 

If southerly shear has been over the storm all day, that's probably helped with some sinking air on the south side. If winds aloft have a slight southerly component, then winds are starting to turn counterclockwise with height- backing winds. That's going to cause the air to sink, and it's probably why we haven't seen any CDO maintenance on that side of the storm whatsoever. 

If this shear really is expected to abate, we'll probably see any CDO persist a little longer. 

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9 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

For the umpteenth time today Florence is trying to figure out how to eye wall.

Don't know how big of an issue dry air really is, we'd probably see more examples of outflow arcs racing away from the center on VIS if it was reallllllyyyyy a big problem. 

If southerly shear has been over the storm all day, that's probably helped with some sinking air on the south side. If winds aloft have a slight southerly component, then winds are starting to turn counterclockwise with height- backing winds. That's going to cause the air to sink, and it's probably why we haven't seen any CDO maintenance on that side of the storm whatsoever. 

 If this shear really is expected to abate, we'll probably see any CDO persist a little longer. 

What do you think about the coastline perhaps providing some friction to help Florence tighten up a bit? Seems like we've seen that happen in the past.

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15 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

For the umpteenth time today Florence is trying to figure out how to eye wall.

Don't know how big of an issue dry air really is, we'd probably see more examples of outflow arcs racing away from the center on VIS if it was reallllllyyyyy a big problem. 

If southerly shear has been over the storm all day, that's probably helped with some sinking air on the south side. If winds aloft have a slight southerly component, then winds are starting to turn counterclockwise with height- backing winds. That's going to cause the air to sink, and it's probably why we haven't seen any CDO maintenance on that side of the storm whatsoever. 

If this shear really is expected to abate, we'll probably see any CDO persist a little longer. 

Yeah she has tried all day.....still 24 hrs till landfall at least. She is doing work on the south side and looks a bit better..and its just odd watching a cane approach NC like this expecting it to hit....so use to them being south of ILM headed north not out east headed NW...that ridge better break down soon or she is going to come on in between ILM and MHX....

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22 minutes ago, griteater said:

There's no outflow on the SW/S/SE sides of the storm at the moment.  This reminds me a bit of Isabel, a storm that was strong, but weakened to a CAT 2 at landfall.  Still, there was a huge amount of storm surge damage in the vulnerable southern Outer Banks with that one.

Even if she weakens to a cat 1, storm surge will still be huge all along the coast.

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Just now, yotaman said:

Even if she weakens to a cat 1, storm surge will still be huge all along the coast.

She is already looking better, by this time tomorrow she could easily be a 120-130 mph storm again....intensity forecasting is a crap shoot....but she hasa solid large well defined rotation and could easily go off if she can get in somewhat better conditions which appears to be the case.....of more concern is the actual track she takes.....she has been NE of the NHC track by quite a bit all day....if she does end up making landfall up further north it changes things for me and you considerably. 

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