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Hurricane Florence


NCSNOW
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I'm in Jacksonville and because of the latest slight shift in the track south everyone is saying its not going to hit here and be bad; man are they in for a rude awakening with the flooding. Looking at the visible satellite this is amazing to look out, outflow clouds are now penetrating the coast. Keeping everything charged so I can provide you all some videos :)

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6 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Even with this southern track, the euro has gusts in southern wake up close to 60mph. Will be interesting if it's too far south by say 25 or 50 miles. Will make a huge difference for the triangle with regards to gusts (example 60mph vs 80mph).

That's well within the margin of error, IMO.

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21 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Even with this southern track, the euro has gusts in southern wake up close to 60mph. Will be interesting if it's too far south by say 25 or 50 miles. Will make a huge difference for the triangle with regards to gusts (example 60mph vs 80mph).

Nightmare scenario for forecasting . Like you said a shift of 25 to 50 miles north will change the wind forecast for everyone in the central coastal plains to the piedmont.

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4 minutes ago, griteater said:

Euro Ensemble Mean is much like its last run.  Storm moves into Wilmington area, then moves SW, where the mean is actually just off the SC coast (same as last run).  This run is slower with the progression SW thru the SC coast...so, an increasing heavy rainfall threat in eastern / NE South Carolina.

Also more time over water (ie the Gulf Stream)

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She is about to run right out of the north side of the NHC cone lol.....it doesnt imply the NHC track is wrong down the road.....just that its wrong right now.....I cant figure out how to link a loop of her with the NHC track overlay from CIMSS.....so do it yourself :)

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=06L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0

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2 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

She is about to run right out of the north side of the NHC cone lol.....it doesnt imply the NHC track is wrong down the road.....just that its wrong right now.....I cant figure out how to link a loop of her with the NHC track overlay from CIMSS.....so do it yourself :)

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=06L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0

This is what I was thinking. Looks to be coming in high and hot. A little north and a little faster than NHC advisory. Its tricky visually out in the ocean, if there is a variance I'm sure model runs and new advisories will account for it, but it sure is nerve racking thinking its high and hot with so little room for error.

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