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Hurricane Florence


NCSNOW
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16 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said:

12z GFS makes landfall on Friday vicinity of Wrightsville Beach. That is far enough north to cause some power outages in parts of central and eastern NC especially downeast NC and the sandhills. Raleigh will feel it in this position. Don't let your guard down, Florence is an impressively strong storm and obviously very dangerous.

gfs_mslp_wind_seus_10.png

If the GFS is to be believed.  Right now I'm not model hugging anymore like I was.  Just too many solutions. Following the NHC products for about another 24hrs or until better consensus 

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Just now, bigshaq00 said:

 what can we expect in cary i see the models show a little bit on rain but the news will then say only 2-3 inches i have no idea what to do

 

Honestly?  Following WRAL attm.  Winds gusting to 43mph at peak time.  No real clear indication on precip amts. Thinking way more than 2-3 inches.  5-7 inches more likely and maybe up to 8 inches of rain.  This thing is big and a slow mover so lots of water over an extended period of time is a bad combination.

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10 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

If he GFS is to be believed.  Right now I not model hugging anymore like i was.  Just too many solutions. Following the NHC products for about another 24hrs or until better consensus 

That is wise. I think we will all be watching on Friday to see position and movement. Position changes will make a difference well inland as we have discussed. Note that the wind field including the extent of tropical storm force winds and hurricane force winds is expanding in the real time analysis of Florence. Also note that there is nothing in the current GFS run that contradicts the NHC products.

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12z summary.

Every model land falls New Hanover or Pender county NC. Did the canadian get onslow? Any way you slice it the surge is gonna be a nightmare from Wilmington up to ocracoke right past Morehead City. But despite  this and the big wind, the flash flooding then river flooding to follow espeacilly in southern coastal plain is gonna be one for the ages I'm afraid. And that's saying alot after what's taken place just the past 20 years on our coast and enc. 

 

All eyes on euro and its ensembles to see if they kiss the same landfall point mentioned above by the 12z suite before doing the slow death crawl all weekend across SC

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22 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

12z summary.

Every model land falls New Hanover or Pender county NC. Did the canadian get onslow? Any way you slice it the surge is gonna be a nightmare from Wilmington up to ocracoke right past Morehead City. But despite  this and the big wind, the flash flooding then river flooding to follow espeacilly in southern coastal plain is gonna be one for the ages I'm afraid. And that's saying alot after what's taken place just the past 20 years on our coast and enc. 

 

All eyes on euro and its ensembles to see if they kiss the same landfall point mentioned above by the 12z suite before doing the slow death crawl all weekend across SC

On this approach angle and slow crawl, the rivers inland will see hellacious surges. When the Pamlico starts to narrow from 4 miles wide to 2 miles wide over just a few miles the water will get piled up quickly. Places deeper inland like Chocowinity, Washington, Belhaven will see some of the worst surges.

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5 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

So how about this forecast for Greensboro from RAH... is this their way of telling folks not to let their guard down? Seems a little over the top to me based on the forecasts... Thoughts?image.png.597f49f7d5c579a652ade89d2ad7db99.png

I believe they had that up yesterday. The county next to me has the same forecast as well. I am sure it'll be adjusted as the forecast continues to change. But you should never let your guard completely up. Although models really seem to have come to a general consensus.   

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5 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

So how about this forecast for Greensboro from RAH... is this their way of telling folks not to let their guard down? Seems a little over the top to me based on the forecasts... Thoughts?image.png.597f49f7d5c579a652ade89d2ad7db99.png

I mean right now you have 111mph flight level winds 110 miles north of the center. And the hurricane force wind radii seem to only be expanding. I certainly think they're trying to be proactive but I wouldn't call it ridiculous with a storm this size. Strong rain bands can absolutely mix those winds down to the surface at times.

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29 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Add HRWF/HMON to the models showing a SE NC landfall. The NC beaches are about to be redesigned.

CMC at 12Z basically runs the what if the stall/turn is 75-100 miles later scenario.....this is still very plausible and with the way she is booking it NW right now the CMC may be leading the pack on a north inland correction.....bottom line this would put central, and inland eastern NC in legit hurricane conditions....CMC drifts WSW from here.....but this is the NW extent the center makes it this run.

Not saying this is going to happen just saying this option is still very much on the table depending on the trough and ridge timing etc....

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_10.thumb.png.626e1c8f900e05107a03081303da0ca1.png

 

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I hate to see what’s going to happen to Wrightsville Beach and Masonboro. Always my favorite spots to surf. I taught my now 16 year old and 14 year old daughters to surf there when they were 8 and 6 respectively. My 14 year old has been wondering all week if where she learned to surf will still look the same.


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1 minute ago, tramadoc said:

I hate to see what’s going to happen to Wrightsville Beach and Masonboro. Always my favorite spots to surf. I taught my now 16 year old and 14 year old daughters to surf there when they were 8 and 6 respectively. My 14 year old has been wondering all week if where she learned to surf will still look the same.


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There will be definitely be some new sandbars that's for sure.

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