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Hurricane Florence


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1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said:

Thats amazing.  If you get the full eye you would have time to clean up the yard, wash the car, grill some burgers and take a nap before the backside comes thru!

Cant imagine that is accurate?!

Oh its accurate. Go pull up the 12z Nam sim radar views, zoom in at landfall forecast and its breathtaking how massive the eye. These EWRC have made this into a monster size wise. You can fit almost  All of Randolph,Guilford,Forsyth and Davidson county inside the Nam sim view of the eyewall. Its posted on the other board. Really puts size of storm in perspective.

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This was in the RAH mid-morning discussion.

Latest upr air data over the sern US this morning indicates a 
developing mid-upr level ridge there is already 10-20 meters 
stronger than forecast. This strengthening ridge is separated from 
an even stronger sub-tropical ridge situated several hundred miles n 
of Bermuda, by a tropopause-level trough axis stretching from about 
100 miles east of HSE sswwd to an embedded circulation 200 miles 
east of JAX, sswd to another circulation centered about 150 miles 
north of the Yucatan. The presence of both that trough axis, and the 
developing/expanding ridge over the sern US, will ultimately serve 
to slow/halt the nwwd progress of powerful Hurricane Florence, 
particularly by Thu, when the anomalously strong ridge n of Bermuda 
weakens and drifts swwd.
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GFS is now bring it onshore ILM before stalling. Will be interesting to see if this is a trend. THE NAM/GFS/ICON/RGEM are all showing landfall now in ILM or roughly that area. From there IMO it will bend westward. I'm still thinking this goes up the NC/SC border like the euro was showing for days before this anomalous shift yesterday. Could be wrong, but it wouldn't surprise me.

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1 minute ago, HKY_WX said:

GFS is now bring it onshore ILM before stalling. Will be interesting to see if this is a trend. THE NAM/GFS/ICON/RGEM are all showing landfall now in ILM or roughly that area. From there IMO it will bend westward. I'm still thinking this goes up the NC/SC border like the euro was showing for days before this anomalous shift yesterday. Could be wrong, but it wouldn't surprise me.

I agree with this.

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Will be interesting if this makes landfall into SE NC and then starts the drift (W or SW??) By that point the damage has been done to the NC beaches and then the interior flooding situation begins. Would probably still results in some good inland winds for eastern NC and NE SC. Just another scenario to take into account.

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Just now, griteater said:

UKMet on the crude maps looks similar to the GFS after hr72....it looks like it is between Myrtle Beach and Charleston at hr72, then moves into the southern third of South Carolina (I don't the maps before hr72 yet).  GFS and UKMet both moved a little south thru South Carolina.

At hr48, UKMet is right near Wilmington / Cape Fear

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There's no way the eye is 140 miles wide. That would be greater than the distance from Wilmington to Raleigh which is only 114 miles.
To be fair, each longitudinal/latitudinal line is approximately 60 miles from either N-S or E-W. Looking at what Michael Ventrice posted and plotting, it does look like it's 140 miles wide.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

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22 minutes ago, Geno said:

140 mile wide eye? Link to source.

 

5 minutes ago, Steven_1974 said:

There's no way the eye is 140 miles wide. That would be greater than the distance from Wilmington to Raleigh which is only 114 miles.

Here is where I got it from

https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1039895342609772544

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It's rained a TON in WNC this summer. Boone area just had flash flooding last night.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk


It came a hell of a thunder storm last night around 230am. Hellacious thunder and it absolutely poured. I’m on my way to Leland NC to ride out the storm. It’s about 20 min west of Wilmington


.
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12z GFS makes landfall on Friday vicinity of Wrightsville Beach. That is far enough north to cause some power outages in parts of central and eastern NC especially downeast NC and the sandhills. Raleigh will feel it in this position. Don't let your guard down, Florence is an impressively strong storm and obviously very dangerous.

gfs_mslp_wind_seus_10.png

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