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Hurricane Florence


NCSNOW
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4 minutes ago, RTPGiants said:

I know it's the NAM, but do we care at all that it seems to keep a bit more of a northerly run? It's shaping up less on 12z, but still north of global models. In theory we're inside its range...

 

Seeing how large the cone of uncertainty is, I don't think anything is off the table. However, a northern route is looking less and less likely as of now. How did the NAM do during Irma? I don't remember so any input would be great! 

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1 minute ago, ryan1234 said:

Seeing how large the cone of uncertainty is, I don't think anything is off the table. However, a northern route is looking less and less likely as of now. How did the NAM do during Irma? I don't remember so any input would be great! 

I remember it doing fairly well, but I wouldn't put money on it.

Either way, it looks pretty similar to the 6Z GFS to me -- maybe a little further west, but definitely within the margin of error. 

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11 minutes ago, griteater said:

National Hurricane Center TAFB - "Wave heights to 83 ft were measured early this morning under the NE quadrant of Hurricane Florence."

https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1039882107399622657

 

That is crazy!  For perspective, that wave is approximately as tall as this building.  Imagine standing at the base of this building and seeing a wave that tall approach you.

image.png.557bfbf2de1fed50708ed880ef9c530b.png

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40 minutes ago, pdw said:

Hello, I am just a regular person that knows nothing about weather but I am located in Middle Georgia and was just wanting to know if I should be worried about my area experiencing any bad weather other than having a few wind gusts and moderate rain.  I know the track is very uncertain and it is still too early to make decisions on an absolute path but I was wondering if this can turn into something really bad for Georgia.  

Keep check on your local NWS office. Your area could still get eyewall effects if the path ends up that way. If so, you could have down trees and power outages. Local flooding is possible as well.

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This sticks out for SC and Georgia

The NHC track has been adjusted southward at
days 4 and 5, and is a little north of the consensus out of respect
for continuity, however, the GFS, ECMWF, and the ECMWF ensemble mean
is south of the NHC track forecast, and additional southward
adjustment may be warranted in future advisories.
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33 minutes ago, griteater said:

National Hurricane Center TAFB - "Wave heights to 83 ft were measured early this morning under the NE quadrant of Hurricane Florence."

https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1039882107399622657

 

That is ****ing amazing. Thanks. I don't recall ever seeing such a report. That energy will propagate into devastating surge for the Cape Lookout region on the projected path.

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16 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Western NC could be in some trouble with flooding. Some places along the escarpment have had 3 or 4 inches of rain the past few days already..GFS and Euro paints 6 to 10 inches in that area and could be more with optimal orographic uplift. 

Yep agreed. We just had a flood warning here early this morning. Close to 3 inches just last night in northern end of county. 

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10 minutes ago, northwestgastormdawg said:

This sticks out for SC and Georgia


The NHC track has been adjusted southward at
days 4 and 5, and is a little north of the consensus out of respect
for continuity, however, the GFS, ECMWF, and the ECMWF ensemble mean
is south of the NHC track forecast, and additional southward
adjustment may be warranted in future advisories.

That is from the 5 a.m. discussion

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2 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said:

That's when the respective areas have at least a 5% chance of receiving TS winds, so they're going to show early date and times to reflect faster possible motion of the system.

Ah, thanks.  Trying to keep up on the latest while I am at work 

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5 minutes ago, NEGa said:

Am I misreading the latest update?  I was under the assumption this storm (for NE GA, the Upstate and Western NC) was for like late Sunday or Monday.  I guess I did not realize the storm would be starting earlier?

Its a misleading graphic, and I think they should change the way they present that information because it will confuse most of the general public. Why show 5% chances in that manner? The information could still be reported, but not in such an alarming and confusing manner.

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3 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said:

Its a misleading graphic, and I think they should change the way they present that information because it will confuse most of the general public. Why show 5% chances in that manner? The information could still be reported, but not in such an alarming and confusing manner.

Its very useful as a business owner.  I'm getting my trucks off the road at noon tomorrow.

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So the timing in the turn is crucial for us interior eastern nc guys. That trough is any slower weakening the ridge and it gets even 30 to 50 miles further north then that's gonna give us a little worse weather. Obviously any faster and spares us from any significant weather. I question a models stall and turn and it could quite easy be earlier or later so its gonna boil down to nowcasting when that exact point is when it turns.

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8 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Thats amazing.  If you get the full eye you would have time to clean up the yard, wash the car, grill some burgers and take a nap before the backside comes thru!

Cant imagine that is accurate?!

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2 minutes ago, shaggy said:

So the timing in the turn is crucial for us interior eastern nc guys. That trough is any slower weakening the ridge and it gets even 30 to 50 miles further north then that's gonna give us a little worse weather. Obviously any faster and spares us from any significant weather. I question a models stall and turn and it could quite easy be earlier or later so its gonna boil down to nowcasting when that exact point is when it turns.

Which if that holds true, turns into nowcasting for all of us farther down the coast. A lot of people I've talked to have assumed it would be fairly weak when it moves SW. Staying stronger would change the game just a bit.

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