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Hurricane Florence


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6 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

I bet they'll slow it down at 5 AM. They probably want to see the 00z suite before going all-in on the stall-and-meander solution.

Agree. If it truly does lose all or practically all steering currents and is just spinning over the ocean like a top, it will tend to bounce off the land mass.

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2 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

For what its worth the ICON is sticking to its guns getting up to Cape Lookout/MHX again at 00Z......its going to sit over Bogue Banks for a bit then move W inland like the previous run.....very similar to the Ukie 12Z run as well.

I'm intrigued by that solution as well. Is there another Ukie run soon?

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12 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Any chance this continues to maybe move south for landfall?  Maybe down at MB?

Certainly, and that’s well within the NHC cone.

Pretty sizable shift on the track tonight, and one that would probably spare Raleigh to some extent, I would expect.  It will be interesting to see how/if the still develops.  It almost seems too wonky to be legitimate on some of the models, but we’ve seen similar things before (I.e. Harvey).

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Indeed, the GFS and Euro show only 1-2" of rain for RDU and wind gusts topping out in the 40s at best. Any more shifts south and it'll just be cloudy and breezy. A far cry from what the public probably still expects from this storm.

I was not sold on this Fran-like track that was all the rage Sunday and Monday, but I expected that a track up the coast and out to sea around the upper-level ridge would be the most favored scenario. It's hard to think that we'd get a stall scenario this far north in mid-September, yet now with these persistent big ridges in the eastern half of the country, I guess this may be the new norm.

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Is it worth remembering that 2 days ago the path was Fran-like and trending right and while it's trending left now, it may still trend back and end up having a solution in the middle?  I guess the answer is anything is possible given the circumstances.  I also recall hearing that the Gulf system could have an impact on Florence's steering. Any thoughts on that?

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11 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said:

Is it worth remembering that 2 days ago the path was Fran-like and trending right and while it's trending left now, it may still trend back and end up having a solution in the middle?  I guess the answer is anything is possible given the circumstances.  I also recall hearing that the Gulf system could have an impact on Florence's steering. Any thoughts on that?

Higher uncertainty given the stall and crawl scenario, but the Euro Ensembles moving south last night and holding today (along with the FV3), taking the system into SC, is pretty telling IMO

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Just now, griteater said:

Higher uncertainty given the stall and crawl scenario, but the Euro Ensembles moving south last night and holding today (along with the FV3), taking the system into SC, is pretty telling IMO

Yep. The models have converged in a way that they were not a day or so ago. They show some track variance and some small detail differences, but the overall picture is pretty much the same among all of the majors (GGEM excepted).

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This GFS run just shows how much a 75-100 mile change can make, between 54 and 60 it slams on the brakes barely stopping before landfalling in Onslow Bay if it goes another 50-100 miles before stopping it changes things for a lot of people inland.....and that 100 miles is well within the margin of error in the 50 hr range....

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5 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

GGEM takes it slowly inland over eastern NC. It was the last outlier. It's still kind of an outlier in its northerliness, but not by as much.

UKMet has now moved south.  At hr72 it is in Wilmington area.  At hr120 it looks like it is west of Clemson, SC, near GA/NC/SC triple point.  Those are the only 2 hours I have, which I know is weird (still coming in)

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Just now, griteater said:

UKMet has now moved south.  At hr72 it is in Wilmington area.  At hr120 it looks like it is west of Clemson, SC, near GA/NC/SC triple point.  Those are the only 2 hours I have, which I know is weird (still coming in)

This convergence makes it clear that the solution is probably correct. Lots of egg-on-face for folks in the Triangle who were pumping up the Fran 2.0 angle when the storm was still 4-6 days away and the models were showing a lot of uncertainty.

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