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Hurricane Florence


NCSNOW
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3 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

Real deal Floyd Irene sandwich if this lines up, we are well inside the cone. If I was in a position to inform the general public RAH/MHX would be my message based on the data I have access to, as opposed to subjective views from WRAL or WITN.

Thanks for your insight.  Can you please clarify what you mean by RAH/MHX would be your message?

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4 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

Real deal Floyd Irene sandwich if this lines up, we are well inside the cone. If I was in a position to inform the general public RAH/MHX would be my message based on the data I have access to, as opposed to subjective views from WRAL or WITN.

Hey post me up a link to those TAB outputs.....

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1 minute ago, Berlin1926 said:

If the steering mechanisms are so weak, why does Florence get as far as the coast and then looks like a billard ball hitting the edge of the table.  Is there something magic about the coast or are the models struggling with happens with the hurricane once it's made landfall.

Someone is going to turn on NC's snow shield system.

More seriously, it's just a timing thing. Happens to be Florence arrives as steering breaks down.

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7 minutes ago, RTPGiants said:

Someone is going to turn on NC's snow shield system.

More seriously, it's just a timing thing. Happens to be Florence arrives as steering breaks down.

Also keep in mind that where she stops is very dependent on several things and the models could easily be off on those things by 100-150 miles in this range and that will have major implications obviously....this is probably why the NHC is in no hurry to majorly change its forecast track.....

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2 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Also keep in mind that where she stops is very dependent on several things and the models could easily be off on those things by 100-150 miles in this range and that will have major implications obviously....this is probably why the NHC is in no hurry to majorly change its forecast track.....

Well to be fair to NHC, they only had the Euro guidance at 5. No track changes on intermediate advisories. Since then the GFS and future-GFS have sort of caved to Euro, so we'll see what they do at 11, but I'd expect a rather big change.

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47 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Yeah use the NWS not WRAL.....they have models they use and it changes every run...if the models drop the stall and go back to a better hit inland on NC they will have to change there maps the NWS wont lol....

It goes both ways though.  If the latest Euro and FV3 are correct, Raleigh NWS will have to change their maps

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35 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said:

If the steering mechanisms are so weak, why does Florence get as far as the coast and then looks like a billard ball hitting the edge of the table.  Is there something magic about the coast or are the models struggling with happens with the hurricane once it's made landfall.

A related post on this - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51511-hurricane-florence/?do=findComment&comment=4986166

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4 minutes ago, wake4est said:

Yeah but they do so in a measured fashion, rather than hugging every model run like us internet people like to do.

Reason I asked was because let’s be honest, most people watch their local news.  Let’s say someone is being told tonight 30-40mph GUSTS and they decide they stay it out. Risk the trees etc. Never knowing that there was almost double that being reported via NWS.  I’ve seen a lot the last few days.  I’ll be honest, I saw Fish day that tonight and felt some hope. Here’s to hoping this keeps trending away. Far as possible south seeing as how there’s little to no hope of it going well north anymore. 

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I still like landfall near ilm and then a slow slog west into southern nc bf turning back north. I can see a stall but I think a turn back south is bogus. Just basing this off climo, the hurricane's size and speed (inertia), and the overall pattern.  These model flops are annoying but also humorous after a bit of rum.

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3 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

I still like landfall near ilm and then a slow slog west into southern nc bf turning back north. I can see a stall but I think a turn back south is bogus. Just basing this off climo, the hurricane's size and speed (inertia), and the overall pattern.  These model flops are annoying but also humorous after a bit of rum.

This is where I am, I too think its gonna dump in somewhere between ILM and J'ville, though if the eye is big enough it might be big enough to cover that whole stretch.....it will move WNW inland a bit then stall and then move more NNW  and eventually to NNE......and probably spend way to much time over central and eastern NC....there is still around 54 hrs before landfall and there will be another north trend in the models.....

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23 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

I didn't expect this storm to get the classic east coast comma shape with weaker/drier west and south sides but it certainly looks to be taking on that appearance. Maybe it's just temporary but it could be tough to maintain cat 4 with that structure.

There’s some shear that probably won’t  last much longer.  The water vapor loop shows it well. 

49A7A9E5-35D8-4970-A752-46949AFC26F6.jpeg

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