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Hurricane Florence


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8 minutes ago, Rainforrest said:

How much rain are we looking at for the mountains?

Looks like 4-6+ on the TT maps for the FV3, but that would almost definitely be underdone in the SE facing escarpment areas. Strong, moist SE flow is the last thing you want to see and I wouldn't be surprised for some areas to see a foot or more. Only good news is that it's actually moving by then instead of just crawling.

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5 minutes ago, yotaman said:

Sandy and Isabel are 2 that come to mind that made significant left hand moves but you are right that none that we know of have made SW moves this far north.

They made left movements, yes, but not anti-poleward. If a sustained SW movement (not a stall or eye wobble) actually occurs with this storm, it's without apparent precedent in the historical record.

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17 minutes ago, mjwise said:

They made left movements, yes, but not anti-poleward. If a sustained SW movement (not a stall or eye wobble) actually occurs with this storm, it's without apparent precedent in the historical record.

So is the fact that it's even going to hit NC based on it's location a few days ago, so....

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7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

High Risk excessive flash flood risk , issued by WPC! It’s only the 2nd time it’s ever issued one of those!! The 1st one was issued for Harvey!!

Maybe a Day 3 high risk, but there has been several Highs Risks issued by the WPC this year. In fact they issued one as the remnants of Gordon combined with a cold front of the OH Valley this past weekend.

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5 minutes ago, Regan said:

But it just seems so high for this to weaken so much at the coast and track more south. We will keep watching. Forecasts will keep changing. 

The winds aloft will still be screaming though at 850 and it wont be that unusual for them to mix down so you can have sustained 30 mph winds and still gust way up to 60-80....its common with well organized landfalling storms.....better you expect 100 and get 50 than expect 50 and get 100....

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1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

The winds aloft will still be screaming though at 850 and it wont be that unusual for them to mix down so you can have sustained 30 mph winds and still gust way up to 60-80....its common with well organized landfalling storms.....better you expect 100 and get 50 than expect 50 and get 100....

Right I was just confused why Wral was saying gusts 30-40 mph here. Not sustained. But gusts. 

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2 minutes ago, Regan said:

Right I was just confused why Wral was saying gusts 30-40 mph here. Not sustained. But gusts. 

Yeah use the NWS not WRAL.....they have models they use and it changes every run...if the models drop the stall and go back to a better hit inland on NC they will have to change there maps the NWS wont lol....

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41 minutes ago, thunderwolf said:

Maybe a Day 3 high risk, but there has been several Highs Risks issued by the WPC this year. In fact they issued one as the remnants of Gordon combined with a cold front of the OH Valley this past weekend.

Yeah, the 3 day part must be unusual. But still , pretty scary.

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