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Hurricane Florence


NCSNOW
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6 minutes ago, yotaman said:

Much slower now. Calling for a 2 pm landfall on Friday instead of a Thursday night/early Friday morning landfall. Also looks to be a tick southwest than at 2 pm.

Nightmare approach angle. A small shift 20 miles north or south changes landfall point considerably. Shift it 20 miles north and it comes ion over bogue banks or south and puts wilmington more in danger. Thats one wobble either direction away from significant differences in track. As it stands the center on that track would be at best 80 miles to my south so I might get some gusts to top end TS strength. Any north of track motion puts the center much closer to me which is why the angle matters so much here.

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11 minutes ago, yotaman said:

Much slower now. Calling for a 2 pm landfall instead of a nighttime landfall. Also looks to be a tick southwest than at 2 pm.

Yeah the angle is interesting, and the eye is going to be huge so that pretty much puts Emerald Isle to Topsail under the gun.....and that's why even small changes will matter to many of us.....if it goes 50 miles further north before the turn then that a big deal for me....if it turns 50 miles sooner that would put Myrtle/ILM much more in play...there will be no way the models can get that right so it will be now casting time as the eye gets inshore....

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From the 5:00PM disco:

The 12Z GFS model made a
significant shift to the west, the UKMET made a shift to the east,
and the ECMWF track has remained basically unchanged through 72
hours. As a result the consensus models have made only minor track
shifts to the west. What is noticeable is that all of the global and
regional models are indicating that the steering currents will
collapse by 72 h when Florence is approaching the southeast U.S.
coast. The weak steering currents are expected to continue through
the weekend, which makes the forecast track on days 3-5 quite
uncertain.

 

 

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Pretty crazy stuff from the KILM Disco....

This will likely be the storm of a lifetime for portions of the
Carolina coast, and that`s saying a lot given the impacts
we`ve seen from Hurricanes Diana, Hugo, Fran, Bonnie, Floyd,
and Matthew. I can`t emphasize enough the potential for
unbelievable damage from wind, storm surge, and inland flooding
with this storm.
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Just now, wncsnow said:

GFS scenario is actually the best I have seen. It stalls the storm just far enough offshore to miss the worst effects of the eyewall and torrential rain. Still offshore by 120 but bearing down on Charleston as what would be a much weakened system. 

On this run, the NC coast still gets obliterated with rain and surge, and since the Storm moves SW, it goes over hot gulf stream waters and re intensifies quickly. Take verbatim, it's an awful run.

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3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

GFS scenario is actually the best I have seen. It stalls the storm just far enough offshore to miss the worst effects of the eyewall and torrential rain. Still offshore by 120 but bearing down on Charleston as what would be a much weakened system. 

No way that was horrible for the beaches the thing will have a 20-30 mile wide eye the entire coast from Bogue Banks to ILM would be in extreme conditions and then the surge would push in and stay there since the storm isn't moving so the winds don't change and let the water out.....

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1 minute ago, AsheCounty48 said:

On this run, the NC coast still gets obliterated with rain and surge, and since the Storm moves SW, it goes over hot gulf stream waters and re intensifies quickly. Take verbatim, it's an awful run.

It wont intensify much if any due to upwelling and it is still the best run I have seen for NC coasts compared to EURO and other solutions.

 11 inches of rain compared to 35 on the EURO.

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